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Free Trade in Free Fall: How Companies Can Navigate the Pandemic

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Archives, Global Logistics, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Free Trade in Free Fall: How Companies Can Navigate the Pandemic

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Even before the global pandemic arrived in every corner of the globe, free trade and the globalized trading system were in critical condition. The bruising U.S.-China trade war, along with regional conflicts such as the Japan-Korea trade war, Brexit, import tariffs, the decline of the WTO, left companies struggling to adjust supply chains and many wondering whether the globalized trading system will survive.

Yet these challenges pale in comparison to the trade and supply chain issues the COVID-19 pandemic generates on a nearly-hourly basis. Demand has plummeted around the world for goods and services as vast portions of humanity are isolated in their homes and left without incomes. Export restrictions on medical supplies, food and other critical products, while still limited, are on the rise, creating fears of reverse protectionism. Airfreight capacity has dropped as tens of thousands of flights are grounded. Logistics companies are struggling to deliver goods as nearly every country in the world has implemented ever-tightening border restrictions in a matter of weeks.

As a result, companies and individuals are struggling to keep our grocery stores, pharmacies, and retailers stocked with the cheap and plentiful products consumers have grown accustomed to, not to mention supply the medicine and equipment that our frontline healthcare workers desperately need. While these are dark days in trade, there are ways to immediately protect your company and your supply chain.

First, companies must protect their workers from the disease. Crisis management procedures to keep people healthy, whether that means remote working procedures or social distancing policies to keep production facilities running, should be implemented and revisited as the crisis moves on. While most companies have implemented these policies as a result of government orders, companies should continuously evaluate how to both keep their employees safe and their companies running. Fighting this disease and its economic ramifications is a marathon, not a sprint, so companies should find ways to maintain continuity as long as possible.

Next, now is the time to be hands-on with your supply chain. Companies need to examine every aspect of their supply chain and logistics: every container, every ship, every truck, every port, and every border crossing. In this way, you can understand how your goods must pass to understand how the pandemic will affect each shipment. Seafreight remains stable, though that could change, so companies with any slack in their supply chain should consider moving goods in advance through slower means.

Companies also need a proactive examination of their legal risks.  This assessment must include a review of which contracts may be broken through force majeure and other similar break clauses, whether initiated by you or the other party. At first, only producers were using force majeure as they realized they did not have the raw materials, labor shortages, and logistical support to deliver products. Now, importers and end-users are breaking their contracts as demand drops and shops close. Similarly, insurance markets are struggling to find ways to insure goods, services, and even projects as supply chain issues threaten to slow projects around the world. A holistic examination of your legal risks will save your company money and time when legal challenges arise.

Companies also need to find help from their governments. Governments are looking to help companies stay afloat, keep people employed, and keep goods and services flowing, but they are frequently looking for answers from companies. If you are not part of a trade association, join one. And if you do not have representation in Washington, now is the time to make sure that government authorities know how best to help your company and industry navigate this crisis and to remind them of the value that trade brings to communities around the world, and where you need help.

The COVID-19 crisis will leave the global trading system permanently altered, but it is also a reminder that, just as our physical health is intertwined with our neighbors, our economic health is also dependent. Long-standing trade relationships are under strain, contracts will be voided, and shipments unfulfilled. Yet a healthy dose of compassion and understanding that your business partners are facing the same challenges as your company may help you maintain your trading relationships through these hard times and allow them to rebound faster when the crisis is over.

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Benjamin Kostrzewa is a Registered Foreign Lawyer at Hogan Lovells, working in Hong Kong and Washington serving the needs of clients on both sides of the Pacific. Before joining Hogan Lovells he served as Assistant General Counsel at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

trade credit insurance
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Trade Credit Insurance

Trade Credit Insurance & COVID-19

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Exporters and sellers in every industry are feeling the effects of COVID-19, and they will look to their trade credit insurance to cover amounts that their buyers no longer can pay.  It has been only ten weeks since the first US resident was reported to be infected with novel coronavirus COVID-19, and the virus has wreaked havoc on businesses in nearly every sector since then.

Trade credit insurance (sometimes called accounts receivable insurance) protects sellers against a buyer’s non-payment of debt, up to a certain percentage – typically 80 to 90 percent of the bill.  Most trade credit insurance policies include a “waiting period” after a bill is due before a policyholder can make a claim, and 180 days is typical. It is expected that the first wave of COVID-19 trade credit claims will arrive by early summer and continue throughout the year. The anticipated surge in trade credit claims will likely be met with forceful efforts by insurance companies to get out of paying claims.

PUTTING TRADE CREDIT CLAIMS IN CONTEXT

Economists predict that the country’s GDP will shrink by 34% in the second quarter of 2020. One of the largest trade credit insurance companies estimates that in a typical market, 1 in 10 invoices go unpaid. Even less than a year ago, an industry association counting the world’s largest trade credit insurance companies among its members (ICISA) reported an 8% increase in amounts covered by insurance, coupled with a 1.5% increase in claims paid.  In other words, more accounts were being insured, leading to more claims for insurance companies to pay.  This increase in paid claims, ICISA noted, occurred “despite favorable economic conditions.”

Economic conditions have certainly taken an unfavorable turn since then.

With a worldwide pandemic that has brought the global economy to a nearly grinding halt, sellers in every industry will be unable to pay bills as they come due. Trade credit policyholders will be making more claims – and they will be making those claims to insurance companies whose investment accounts are suddenly worth much less than they were three months ago.

Insurance companies selling property and liability insurance have already staked out their positions on why policies supposedly will not cover COVID-19 losses. There is good reason to believe their trade credit counterparts will respond similarly.

BE PREPARED FOR INSURANCE COMPANY CHALLENGES TO YOUR CLAIM

Trade credit policies generally promise to indemnify a buyer for a specified percentage of unpaid amounts that become due and payable during the policy period. Trade credit insurance is intended to protect a seller from non-payment caused by many things, including a buyer’s default, insolvency, or inability to pay because of catastrophe or acts of God.  Policyholders will have strong arguments that buyers who default on payments because of COVID-19 impacts are amounts that the trade credit policy promises to pay.

But policyholders should be wary of insurance company efforts to break those promises. The following are some expected challenges based on concepts addressed in many trade credit insurance policies.

Non-disclosure

Trade credit insurers often raise the defense of “non-disclosure” to avoid paying claims.  The argument goes that if the insurance company had known about some fact or another, it would not have sold you the policy it did.  In some jurisdictions, insurance companies can void policies altogether if they successfully prove that a representation or omission in the application process was “material,” meaning it caused the insurance company to take a position it would not have taken otherwise.

In the COVID-19 context, policyholders should expect challenges to what they knew about the creditworthiness of the buyer at the time of contracting.  Insurance companies may blame a buyer’s failure to pay on facts about the buyer that are unrelated to coronavirus, arguing that the policyholder failed to disclose things about the buyer that would have changed the insurance picture.  Some insurance companies analyze and investigate a buyer’s creditworthiness before underwriting the risk.  In those cases, an insurance company will have a harder time using non-disclosure to avoid its obligations.

But in response to any non-disclosure challenges, policyholders will want to look to the insurance company’s prior conduct in similar circumstances. Had they insured contracts involving the same seller before? Has the newly “material” information been asked of the seller before? While it is fact-intensive and likely time-consuming to establish, an insurance company’s previous conduct or silence can go a long way toward discrediting a non-disclosure argument.

Prior Knowledge

Depending on the specific policy period and payment dates, trade credit insurance companies may attempt to raise a “prior knowledge” defense to get out of paying a trade credit claim.  Insurance covers risks that are unforeseen at the time the contract is made. Insurance companies will likely seize on the evolving nature of the coronavirus pandemic to argue that sellers had “prior knowledge of facts or conditions” that would alert them to a buyer’s nonpayment.

Any response to the argument that a seller was aware that COVID-19 would impact the buyer’s ability to pay will need to take into account the dates of key pandemic events, both global and local. The dates of COVID-19 actions in the buyer’s home state or country will also likely be at play. As with a response to a “non-disclosure” defense, combatting a “prior knowledge” defense is highly fact-specific.

Policyholders may find that the “reasonable expectations” doctrine of insurance interpretation aids them in this scenario. In many jurisdictions, insurance policies must be interpreted to give effect to the reasonable expectations of the average policyholder. It is fair to say that most policyholders reasonably expect their insurance policies to respond to the losses following the sudden and unprecedented spread of COVID-19, whose impact was not appreciated at the time the policy was entered.

Challenges to the Underlying Sales Contract

While the defenses of non-disclosure and prior knowledge rely largely on what was said, done, or known during the application and underwriting process, policyholders should also anticipate challenges to the insured sales contract.

Trade credit insurance policies contain several provisions that limit insurance company obligations if the underlying sales contract is not compliant with the insurance policy.  Successful challenges to the validity of the contract – such as that it was never properly executed or that the transaction at issue was not covered by the insured contract – may jeopardize coverage. Some policies specifically exclude coverage if there is any “express or implied agreement . . . to excuse nonpayment.”

To avoid or rebut a challenge about the sales contract itself, trade credit policyholders should take special care to follow and apply the payment terms and credit control provisions in the contract. While there is no policy exclusion for being a conscientious seller, be prudent in your communications with buyers about your payment expectations.

Like so much about the legal impact of COVID-19, coverage for trade credit insurance claims stemming from COVID-19 losses will be fact-specific and potentially hard-fought. Trade credit policyholders should give prompt notice of their claim, document their losses, and prepare to respond to any insurance company challenges with the assistance of their broker or trusted insurance expert.

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Vivian Costandy Michael is an attorney in the New York office of Anderson Kil P.C. and a member of the firm’s Insurance Recovery Group. Through jury trials, summary judgment, mediation, and settlements, Vivian has helped to recover millions of dollars in insurance assets under liability and property insurance policies sold to corporate policyholders

corporate
Archives, Global Trade Daily, In The News

How COVID-19 is Reshaping Corporate Culture

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The outbreak of COVID-19 is radically changing how many U.S. companies operate.
Public safety measures have closed physical offices and made remote working the norm. Travel restrictions have heightened the importance of efficient technology, communication, and collaboration. Executives have had to pivot quickly, reorganizing and rallying their workforce to push forward in an unprecedented time.
Some business leaders think COVID-19 marks a permanent turning point. And at the center of the seismic change is the reshaping of corporate culture – the beliefs and behaviors that influence how a company’s employees and management interact, says Chuck Crumpton (www.chuckcrumpton.com), author of The Jagged Journey: A Raw & Real Memoir about the Non-Perfect Path of Life & Business.
“The pandemic unquestionably will have lasting effects on corporate cultures,” Crumpton says. “There’s a growing sense it’s a fundamental shift, a new normal.
“It starts with empathy. Company leaders are seeing they need to listen more to their employees’ concerns, which are really everybody’s concerns right now. Many people have fear and uncertainty. It’s an opportunity to be more understanding and build relationships with the people you work with, and from there as a company, being better able to work in new and more collaborative ways.”
Crumpton explains the ways corporate culture will be reshaped in the wake of COVID-19 and how leaders can influence those positive changes:
Providing emotional support along with technical support. While technology is the key to keeping a remote workforce functioning at a high level, Crumpton says how leaders create a culture of mutual support will be a big factor in company culture and the employee experience. “You want to get people helping and looking out for each other,” Crumpton says. “Not every Google Chat, call or email has to be business-related.”
More, and better, communication. Working remotely, with managers and employees at different locations, places an emphasis on focused and more precise communication – even over-communication if necessary – to keep operations flowing, Crumpton says. “The use of video conferencing is very effective, keeping everyone connected and agendas targeted,” he says. “It increases responsiveness, attention span, and strengthens collaboration.”
More of a family feeling. “Working from home personalizes the workplace, partly because you are working from your personal space, and the imaginary line between family and work is basically gone,” Crumpton says. “People are out of their shell now, more relatable. Colleagues and clients are happy to share a screen with their kids or pets in the background. There’s a blending of the personal and professional, and it’s liberating.”
Better collaboration. “Your relationship with your teammates will improve,” Crumpton says. “Fighting a common enemy, the coronavirus, creates bonds in relationships. Everyone being in this together brings new levels of connection with colleagues and clients. You’re happy to see each other onscreen during this period of physical isolation, and that feeling can be brought forward when things settle down. The bond strengthens with teammates also by having worked together to solve problems and be proactive during difficult times. That means better collaboration and more enthusiasm for teamwork and shared success.”
“This crisis has challenged us in seemingly every way,” Crumpton says. “It’s been sudden, profound, and life-changing. Companies have been forced to make major changes, and in the process, they’re seeing the workplace and the world differently. It’s a great opportunity for growth and positive, permanent change.”
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Chuck Crumpton (www.chuckcrumpton.com) is the founder and CEO of Medpoint, LLC, a global consulting firm serving medical device and pharmaceutical companies in the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Latin America. He is the author of The Jagged Journey: A Raw & Real Memoir about the Non-Perfect Path of Life & Business. He’s a featured keynote and session speaker at multi-industry events in the U.S., Europe and Asia for global organizations.
fleet
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Trucking

How to Prepare Your Fleet and Stay Organized During a Global Crisis

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In times of global crisis, the world relies on the trucking industry to transport essential items across the country. From medical supplies to restocking the shelves at local grocery stores, truck drivers play an integral role in maintaining the supply chain. In order to keep these essential items moving during the COVID-19 crisis, the Department of Transportation has suspended most of the Hours of Service regulations for those trucks that are transporting these essential goods.

Commercial truck drivers have had their driving hours extended from 11 to 14 hours depending on the goods being carried. With so much going on and so many depending on trucking and freight transportation organizations during this global crisis, fleet managers and owners need to be extremely organized to handle current and future industry needs. With that in mind, here are a few ways in which you can keep track of your fleet during a time of heightened demand and uncertainty:

Communication is key
The visibility that essential telematics technology brings can be incredibly helpful. Being able to stay in constant communication with your drivers via messaging and dedicated contact forms—as well as knowing their locations at all times—allows fleet managers to make informed decisions. With things being so hectic right now, knowing where your assets are, who is available for the next load, who is nearest to the depots, and who has encountered longer detention times is critical in a time when efficiently maintaining your fleet on the road is more important than ever.

Most likely due to shelter-in-place orders reducing the traffic overall, many of the states experiencing the highest level of COVID-19 spread are seeing a reduction in travel times for drivers. According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), freight trucks are clocking faster times overall in these areas, particularly in regularly congested areas. That being said, because of additional route changes, border regulations and detention delays, freight is taking much longer to transport. Having access to accurate telematics and open lines of communication with drivers will be key in planning and tracking routes.

Documentation should continue
While logs are not mandatory to be kept while under the Federal Emergency Declaration, continuing to make notes and annotate the daily log with the reason for non-compliance is a good practice. This will make sure that logs are current when the Emergency Declaration is lifted. It’s a good idea to integrate a route planner or add-on the service if it isn’t included by your telematics provider to facilitate the planning of loads and tasks. With so much on the fleet manager’s plate and the additional hours drivers are logging, any opportunity for automation should be embraced.

Driver safety
For all fleet managers, the safety of your drivers should be the top priority. The Department of Transportation Hours of Service regulations are there for a reason. The guidelines, of course, are there to make sure that drivers are not being overtaxed, reducing the possibility of accidents. Giving your team ample time to rest before taking the next load is imperative. And while it’s required that drivers receive at least 10 consecutive hours off if they let their company know they need immediate rest, they may be inclined to push themselves given the current situation, feeling a responsibility to their fleet manager and the community at large. Plus, with people practicing social distancing, it’s likely there will be an uptick in eCommerce purchases, adding additional strain to fleet capacity. A fleet tracking tool will allow managers to review driver’s time, how often they have completed a 14-hour shift, and allow for properly scheduled rest periods to avoid exhaustion and potential accidents.

Track maintenance
While drivers are putting in the extra miles, so are their rigs! Keeping track of oil changes, tire rotation and other regular maintenance items can keep your drivers and trucks safely on the road. While you may think a global crisis is not the time to stop for regular maintenance, these quick care items are much easier and more cost-effective to complete than larger complications they could cause going unaddressed. An oil change can help engines run more efficiently and reduce a fleet’s cost per mile. Taking time to examine tires could reveal a small leak or puncture which could lead to a popped tire on the road, leaving your driver stuck for hours on end or even cause them to lose control of the truck due to the blowout. Addressing these regular maintenance items will boost efficiency and save time in the long run.

Invest in add-ons
During times of global crisis, the supply chain can change at a moment’s notice. Add-ons such as a brokerage provider integration can help keep the lines of communication open with your customers and help you keep track of where the loads are and when they will arrive. With demand high, and lives on the line while carrying freight like medical supplies, these up-to-the-moment notices can be key in providing your team and customers with the proper support.

Driving demand
There’s no doubt about it – the trucking industry is a key player in combating this global crisis. Delivering everything from medical supplies, to food to other ecommerce purchases for those in quarantine, the country is demanding quite a bit from our fleets. By staying organized and using helpful telematics tools, fleet managers and owners will be able to meet this challenge with the knowledge they need to make smart decisions. Staying in constant communication with drivers and customers will also help manage expectations and make sure everyone is on the same page.

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Marco Encinas, Senior Product Manager at Teletrac Navman, plans the product strategy and roadmap releases globally for all of Teletrac Navman’s software platforms. He gains industry insights from customers, integration partners and R&D to improve current Teletrac Navman product features and tools, and drive development of new product requirements. Before joining the Teletrac Navman team, Marco planned product strategy and roadmap releases for both commercial and consumer product lines, developed sales training tools and product curriculum at Magellan GPS and Mitsubishi.

humanitarian
Archives, Foreign Trade Zones, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

ECONOMIC SANCTIONS EXEMPT HUMANITARIAN TRADE

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Ailing Relations

Iran has been among the worst affected countries from COVID-19, having emerged as an early hotspot outside China. As of April 7, there were an estimated 62,589 confirmed cases with over 3,800 deaths. Iran’s cases appear to have peaked in late March, but exact numbers are unknown due to the secretive nature of its totalitarian regime. Other countries throughout the Middle East began reporting cases in late February and continue to battle spread of COVID-19 due to travel linked to Iran.

U.S. offers of assistance were rejected by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said publicly on March 22, “You might give us a medicine that would spread the disease even more or make it last longer.”

According to the U.S. State Department, the United States has offered more than $100 million in medical assistance to foreign countries, including to the Iranian people, and reports that Iranian health companies have been able to import testing kits without obstacle from U.S. sanctions since January. The U.S. government has urged Iranian leaders to be more truthful about its efforts to contain the virus.

Iran assistance

Humanitarian Trade Exemptions

U.S. economic sanctions against Iran include a general exemption for U.S. exports of agricultural commodities, food, medicines and medical devices to Iran and an authorization process to obtain licenses for a specific list of medical supplies and equipment not covered under the general exemption. Such licenses are usually given for one year.

The U.S. government recently reinforced its messaging that sanctions are directed at the Iranian regime, stating: “[Sanctions] are not directed at the people of Iran, who themselves are victims of the regime’s oppression, corruption, and economic mismanagement.”

A 2019 Congressional Research Service report suggests U.S. sanctions have limited access by the Iranian population to “expensive Western-made medicines such as chemotherapy drugs,” due to a lack of bank financing for such transactions and that the limited supplies that exist have gone to elites.

Role of Financing

Between 2018 and 2019, overall U.S. trade with Iran went from small to very small under tightened sanctions. In 2018, U.S. exports to Iran were valued at $425.7 million. In 2019, U.S. exports had decreased 82 percent to $73.1 million.

Underlying that decrease in trade, even of humanitarian-related goods and services, reflects a tendency toward over-compliance by banks and multinational firms that avoid transactions with Iran to minimize possible violations of U.S. sanctions. Doing so, even inadvertently, could cut off their access to vital U.S. financial markets. The U.S. government has also explicitly cited concerns about the Iranian regime’s abuse of humanitarian trade to evade sanctions and launder money.

To close these loopholes, in October 2019 the Treasury Department announced a new payment mechanism “to facilitate legitimate humanitarian exports to Iran.” The measure restricts the role of the Central Bank of Iran in facilitating humanitarian trade, which the U.S. government views as financing terrorism. It also imposes rigorous reporting requirements to thwart diversion of funds intended for humanitarian use.

By late February 2020, as the COVID-19 medical crisis unfolded in Iran, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing certain humanitarian trade transactions involving the Central Bank of Iran while also approving the use of a Swiss financial channel to finance such transactions.

The Swiss Humanitarian Trade Arrangement (SHTA) enables Swiss-based exporters and trading companies in the food, pharmaceutical and medical sectors to access a secure payment channel with a Swiss bank to guarantee payments for their exports to Iran. Novartis was the first Swiss company to send medicine for use in cancer treatments. Germany, France and Britain have also used this new channel to offer a $5.5 million package to Iran to help fight the coronavirus.

exemptions in sanctions

Trade in Food and Medicine

Much has been written recently about governments restricting exports and otherwise increasing the cost of traded medical supplies during the pandemic.

For two decades now, the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000 (TSRA) has ensured that each U.S. country-based sanctions program provides for trade of agriculture, medicine and medical devices under a broad humanitarian exemption. This is intended to limit potential adverse effects on civilian populations who are not the target of sanctions.

The United Nations Security Council maintains 14 active sanctions programs that also include humanitarian exemptions driven by the belief that a supportive and healthy citizen population is necessary to achieve improvements in a sanctioned regime.

Recently, the United Nations Security Council approved a humanitarian exemption to sanctions against North Korea (DPRK) requested by the World Health Organization for diagnostic and medical equipment to address COVID-19. The United States supported this decision.

Exemptions Thwarted by Totalitarian Regimes

The health impacts of embargoes are difficult to isolate and quantify. They may not become apparent until years after resource shortages occur. Domestic production challenges can also play a role. For example, Iran produces 97 percent of its medicines locally, but a third of these drugs rely on active ingredients that are imported, according to the head of Iran’s Food and Drug Organization.

Although humanitarian trade exemptions are intended to mitigate shortages of essential supplies, totalitarian regimes are known for putting their goals before the needs of their citizens. The negative impacts of sanctions are often compounded by inequitable distribution or outright theft of essential goods and ongoing civil conflicts.

In any case, it’s difficult to know the net effect of sanctions and humanitarian trade exemptions because data on key indicators of health effects are often missing or unavailable from embargoed regimes. However, it is clear that enabling trade in essential goods like food and medical supplies has served a role in health diplomacy for decades.

During her career in international trade and government affairs, the author worked with pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturers to navigate U.S. sanctions policies and requirements.

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Sarah Smiley is a strategic communications and policy expert with over 20 years in international trade and government affairs, working in the U.S. Government, private sector and international organizations.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

vodka
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

France is the Major Market for Premium Vodka from Poland, Purchasing $99M or 62% of Its Total Exports

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Poland – Vodka – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the vodka market in Poland amounted to $403M in 2018, lowering by -2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Production in Poland

In 2018, approx. 98M litres of vodka were produced in Poland; therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, vodka production, however, continues to indicate a moderate decrease. Vodka production peaked at 109M litres in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

Exports from Poland

Vodka exports from Poland amounted to 47M litres in 2018, an increase of 4.9% against the previous year. In value terms, exports amounted to $160M (IndexBox estimates).

Exports by Country

France (15M litres), the U.S. (13M litres) and Canada (2M litres) were the main destinations of vodka exports from Poland, with a combined 62% share of total exports. These countries were followed by Hungary, Germany, Bulgaria, Ukraine, the UK, Italy, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Slovakia, which together accounted for a further 24%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Bulgaria, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($99M) remains the key foreign market for vodka exports from Poland, comprising 62% of total vodka exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($21M), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Canada, with a 2.8% share.

From 2013 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to France amounted to +3.6%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the U.S. (-9.2% per year) and Canada (-2.5% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average vodka export price stood at $3.4 per litre in 2018, approximately mirroring the previous year. Over the last five-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average export price increased by 23% against the previous year. In that year, the average export prices for vodka reached their peak level of $3.8 per litre. From 2015 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for vodka remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2018, the country with the highest price was France ($6.8 per litre), while the average price for exports to Ukraine ($0.8 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to France, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports into Poland

Vodka imports into Poland amounted to 17M litres in 2018, surging by 2.7% against the previous year. In value terms,  imports stood at $46M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Finland (7.2M litres), Lithuania (3.6M litres) and Sweden (2.6M litres) were the main suppliers of vodka imports to Poland, with a combined 78% share of total imports. Ukraine, the UK, Russia and Austria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Austria, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Finland ($22M) constituted the largest supplier of vodka to Poland, comprising 47% of total vodka imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Lithuania ($8.1M), with a 18% share of total imports. It was followed by Sweden, with a 16% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average vodka import price stood at $2.7 per litre in 2018, surging by 4.1% against the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Austria ($4.4 per litre), while the price for Russia ($1.7 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ukraine, while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

disinfectants
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

Global Trade of Disinfectants Has Doubled over the Past Decade

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Disinfectants – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Exports 2009-2018

In 2018, approx. 821K tonnes of disinfectants were exported worldwide; picking up by 3.6% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated a resilient expansion from 2009 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, disinfectants exports increased by +106.7% against 2009 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 14% year-to-year. The global exports peaked in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, disinfectants exports stood at $2.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, Belgium (129K tonnes) and Germany (127K tonnes) were the main exporters of disinfectants in the world, together finishing at near 31% of total exports. It was followed by the U.S. (78K tonnes), France (66K tonnes), the UK (46K tonnes), Spain (44K tonnes) and China (43K tonnes), together mixing up a 34% share of total exports. The following exporters – the Netherlands (33K tonnes), Mexico (22K tonnes), Canada (20K tonnes), Argentina (20K tonnes) and the Czech Republic (16K tonnes) – together made up 14% of total exports.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Mexico, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest disinfectants supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($389M), Belgium ($362M) and the U.S. ($240M), together comprising 43% of global exports. The UK, France, the Netherlands, Spain, China, Mexico, Canada, the Czech Republic and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average disinfectants export price amounted to $2,780 per tonne, rising by 7.4% against the previous year. In general, the disinfectants export price, however, continues to indicate a slight deduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 when the average export price increased by 7.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average export prices for disinfectants attained their maximum at $3,113 per tonne in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the UK ($4,649 per tonne), while Argentina ($1,237 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2009-2018

In 2018, approx. 890K tonnes of disinfectants were imported worldwide; surging by 7.7% against the previous year.

In value terms, disinfectants imports stood at $2.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

The imports of the three major importers of disinfectants, namely Germany, Belgium and France, represented a quarter of the total imports. It was followed by the UK (40K tonnes), mixing up a 4.5% share of total imports. The following importers – Canada (38K tonnes), the Netherlands (28K tonnes), Austria (23K tonnes), Mexico (23K tonnes), the U.S. (22K tonnes), Poland (21K tonnes), China (20K tonnes) and Spain (20K tonnes) – together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China, while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($236M), Belgium ($185M) and China ($144M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, together accounting for 23% of global imports.

Import Prices by Country

The average disinfectants import price stood at $2,798 per tonne in 2018, jumping by 5.8% against the previous year. In general, the disinfectants import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average import price increased by 5.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average import prices for disinfectants reached their maximum at $2,888 per tonne in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was China ($7,077 per tonne), while the UK ($1,478 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

services
Archives, Global Trade Daily, In The News, International Trade

WITH ZOOM, WE ARE ALL TRADING IN SERVICES

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New Modes of Living and Working

As we struggle to maintain continuity in our work and school lives during the pandemic, technology has come to our aid.

Those of us who work on teams spread throughout the country or the world have already unlocked the secrets of online collaboration platforms like Slack and Quip. (We use Quip at TradeVistas for project management.) Others are quickly moving to them or discovering functionality they previously overlooked in Microsoft Teams or similar business software.

“Zoom” has become a verb for online video conferencing the way Skype had been for years for international communication. The class I teach at Georgetown is completely online. (We were already extensively using the learning management system called Canvas). The university reported last week they reached a high of 1,459,100 minutes of instruction on Zoom in just one day.

Biggest Week Ever in Business App Downloads

Video conferencing apps Google Hangouts, Houseparty, Microsoft Teams and ZOOM Cloud Meetings saw major jumps in use in the United States and Europe. According to App Annie, during the week of March 15-21 alone, business apps surpassed 62 million downloads worldwide across iOS and Google Play, apparently the biggest week ever.

With the exception of middle and high schoolers hanging out on Houseparty, many of us working online are exchanging professional, technical, business and other commercial services. If your client or customer is overseas, you are likely delivering what’s called a cross-border service. No better time to appreciate this major component of global trade.

The WTO Modes of Services

In the World Trade Organization (WTO), negotiators divided up services trade into four “modes of delivery” related to where the supplier and consumer are located at the time of the transaction. In Mode 1, known as cross-border trade, the parties are in separate countries and the service is most likely provided digitally via email or through an online platform. One example is consulting services – perhaps a report delivered over email.

In Mode 2, known as consumption abroad, the consumer travels to another territory to receive the service. Examples include hospitality services associated with tourism, medical treatment, or a “semester abroad” at a foreign university. Mode 3 involves putting out a shingle to provide services in another country, known as commercial presence. Finally, in Mode 4, the service provider travels to the customer such as a software engineer working on a project overseas on a temporary visa.

Ascendant Modes of Trade in Services

Every day we engage in or benefit from some form of globally traded services, though we rarely think of it. Among the biggest traditional components of global trade in services are transport and travel – including the trains and ships that move cargo, and the planes that move people across international borders for work and tourism. We’ve written before about how important the tourism is to the global economy – global travel exports were worth $1.7 trillion in 2018.

But other less obvious components of globally traded services have grown larger in recent years. According to the WTO’s 2019 World Trade Statistical Review, the “use of intellectual property” as a service exceeded $3.1 trillion in 2018. The most dynamic services sector continues to be telecommunications, computer and information services (or ICTs), which grew more than 15 percent in 2018.

The Multiplier Effect of Digital Technologies

Telecommunications, computer and information services offer multiplier effects – they create efficiencies and infrastructure that enable new products and new services. Financial technologies bring about cashless payment systems, online platforms like Spotify enable music streaming, technologies embedded in your thermostat promote smart energy use through an app on your phone, sensors on machines inform computers when repairs may be needed. Micro-entrepreneurs sell their products globally through Etsy, eBay or Amazon Web Services.

Enterprise software, cloud computing, data processing and analytics services can help make any business more productive and profitable. They are the backbone of production, distribution and marketing of many physically traded goods while facilitating trade with customers anywhere in the world digitally.

Eighty percent of all U.S. jobs are in services-providing industries. The definition of a “tradable service” is constantly changing and expanding. In 2018, U.S. exports of ICT services alone were valued at $71.4 billion while service exports enabled by ICTs added another $451.9 billion. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that services potentially enabled by ICTs accounted for 55 percent of total U.S. services exports. Yet the United States is fourth in globally exported ICT services, narrowly behind China, India and far behind the European Union.

Growth in ICT enabled services

The Doctor Will “See” You Now

The scourge of the COVID-19 pandemic, with its prolonged and widespread “stay at home” restrictions, is forcing all of us to shift or accelerate our digital habits. We have no choice but to buy non-essentials online. Our kids are e-learning. Doctors are seeing patients online when not critical. Graduating students will have virtual commencements. And most of us are forced into video conferencing all…the…time.

And while many people will be binge watching or gaming (WarnerMedia, Disney Plus, Netflix and Hulu all reported 65 and 70 percent jumps in number of streaming hours), some of us are trying to continue working online, despite these bandwidth hogs. Some businesses have no choice but to cope by providing virtual services – tax advisors are using secure document portals and phone consultations while fitness instructors check your form by webcam. These are stopgap measures now that might augment their businesses when things go back to “normal”.

LinkedIn With One Another

Recently, I decided to join a LinkedIn Live presentation by one of my favorite business gurus. I was astounded at the scrolling list of locations from where viewers were joining: United Kingdom, South Africa, Romania, Tunisia, Qatar, Poland, Pakistan, Jamaica, India, Colombia, Sudan, Turkey, Lebanon, Yemen and Afghanistan. On and on it went – I stopped writing them down. Nearly the entire world is experiencing the effects of the pandemic in some way, but through modern telecommunications and information technologies, we stay connected.

Those of us who can provide our global services online are the lucky ones. Our appreciation goes out to those workers who are keeping factories running to make essentials, who drive trucks and who staff pharmacies and grocery stores to ease our ability to work and learn from home, out of harm’s way.

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Andrea Durkin is the Editor-in-Chief of TradeVistas and Founder of Sparkplug, LLC. Ms. Durkin previously served as a U.S. Government trade negotiator and has proudly taught international trade policy and negotiations for the last fifteen years as an Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University’s Master of Science in Foreign Service program.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.

working from home
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Special Reports

New to Working from Home Full-Time? Here’s How to Stay Productive.

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As the coronavirus pandemic threatens public health and the U.S. economy, more people are working from home on a regular basis. The move follows social distancing guidelines as an attempt to slow the outbreak, but keeping scattered workforces connected and productive can be challenging for managers and employees.

“This is new terrain for all involved, but employees and their companies can come out of this stronger by learning how to work together even better while they’re physically apart,” says Dr. Jim Guilkey (www.jimguilkey.com), author of M-Pact Learning: The New Competitive Advantage — What All Executives Need To Know.

“Optimally, working remotely can sharpen the skills you have and open new avenues of training that broaden skill-sets and increase results. But technology alone can’t smooth the transition to remote working, and both employees and business leaders must learn how to implement new structures and some new or tweaked processes.”

Dr. Guilkey offers tips for both managers and associates to make working from home work out well for their companies:

For employees:

Get started early. “When going to the office, you normally get up and out the door early,” Dr. Guilkey says. “At home, this is more difficult. Get up, take a shower, and get started.”

Create a dedicated work space. People who haven’t worked remotely may need to experiment with different approaches to find what setting works best for them. “Just because you’re not going to the office doesn’t mean you can’t have an office. Dedicate a specific room or surface in your home to work,” Dr. Guilkey says. “You should associate your home office with your actual office. This creates the correct mindset for being productive.”

Structure your day like you would in the office. Workers need to adopt exceptional conscientiousness when it comes to dividing their day into intensive work, communications, personal time and family life,” Dr. Guilkey says. “Have an agenda. Schedule meetings and project time and stay on schedule.”

For managers:

Set expectations.“It is vital that employees know what is expected of them,” Dr. Guilkey says. “When will you be available? How long will it take to get back to someone?”

Create a cadence of communication. Without daily face-to-face interaction, there’s more importance on communication. “A rhythm of communication is vital – daily check-ins, weekly one-on-ones, weekly team meetings, etc. ” Dr. Guilkey says.

Take a video-first approach. “Video, with all the current technology, is the most effective means of remote communication,” Dr. Guilkey says. “Invest in reliable tools.”

Maintain company social bonds. One drawback of working remotely is the potential breaking of social bonds that are necessary for productive teamwork. “Video conferencing or a quick Google chat with a colleague is vital to keep relationships strong,” Dr. Guilkey says. “Employees miss face-to-face banter and impromptu discussions in the physical office, so seeing faces on the screen daily is optimal for morale and a sense of normalcy.”

“Employees and employers can take this unprecedented time as a time to improve individually and as a company,” Dr. Guilkey says. “Working from home and working well together can go hand-in-hand when everyone is pulling even harder in the same direction.”

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Jim Guilkey, PhD (http://www.jimguilkey.com) is the author of M-Pact Learning: The New Competitive Advantage — What All Executives Need To Know. He is the president of S4 NetQuest and a nationally recognized expert in instructional design and learning strategy, with extensive experience in leading the design, development, and implementation of innovative, highly effective learning solutions.

Under his leadership, S4 NetQuest has transformed the learning programs for numerous corporations, including Johnson & Johnson, McDonald’s, Merck, Nationwide, Chase Bank, BMW, Cardinal Health, Domino’s, GE Medical, Kaiser Permanente, Yum! Brands, and others. Guilkey is a frequent speaker at national conferences and corporate training meetings. Before co-founding S4 NetQuest, Guilkey served as the assistant director of flight education at The Ohio State University. He received a BS in aviation and an MA and PhD in instructional design and technology from Ohio State.

toilet
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

TOILET PAPER: A UNIQUELY AMERICAN OBSESSION

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The sight of barren grocery store shelves in the first few weeks of the coronavirus crisis sent thousands of shoppers scrambling for basic supplies – including, in the United States, toilet paper. As of April 1, bathroom tissue remained a sought-after commodity nationwide, out of stock at big-box retailers like Costco and Walmart, and even online at Amazon.

This sudden scarcity has made toilet paper as valuable as any other paper currency. Neighbors using the NextDoor app are bartering toilet paper for eggs and other household essentials, reports Bloomberg, and a recently viral Tik-Tok video showed a man tipping delivery drivers with rolls of toilet paper instead of cash. There’s even been a wave of toilet-paper-related crime. In North Carolina, for instance, sheriff’s deputies found a stolen tractor-trailer carrying 18,000 pounds of bathroom issue, while in Florida, police arrested a man for stealing 66 rolls from a Marriott hotel. A surging number of price-gouging investigations have also focused on the exploitation of desperate shoppers; some chain stores, for example, have reportedly demanded $10 a roll, along with $26 thermometers and $40 for a single pair of face masks.

Americans, however, might be unique in their fixation on toilet paper, despite reports of toilet paper panic-buying in other parts of the world. Americans are not only the world’s largest producers of toilet paper, they are also its most prolific users. In fact in many places globally, toilet paper – along with basic sanitation – is an unimaginable luxury. Toilet paper shortages, it turns out, are truly a first-world worry.

In global toilet paper usage, Americans are on a roll

According to Tissue World Magazine (yes, there is such a thing), North American consumers used an average of 25 kilograms of toilet paper per person in 2018 – or the equivalent of 144 Charmin Mega-Rolls – far outstripping the average global per capita usage of just 5 kilograms a year. By comparison, consumers in western Europe and Japan used only about 15 kilograms per person, while toilet paper usage is close to negligible in Africa, the Middle East and many parts of Asia.

Who Uses the Most Tissue

The vast bulk of the toilet paper Americans use is domestically produced. According to the market forecasting firm IndexBox, just 7.5 percent of Americans’ bathroom tissue is imported. Even so, the United States is still the world’s largest importer of toilet tissue, accounting for 9.4 percent of global imports, according to MIT Media Lab’s Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). China, meanwhile is the world’s largest exporter, followed by Germany, Japan, Poland and Italy. China, does not, however, export much of its toilet paper to the United States; rather, 80 percent of Chinese exports end up in other parts of Asia, Africa and Europe. What toilet paper the United States does import comes primarily from Canada and Mexico.

TP imports

Unlike with other categories of consumer goods, Americans don’t rely on foreign toilet paper because its domestic production is so strong. Among the nation’s top manufacturers are global consumer products giants such as Kimberly-Clark (maker of Cottonelle and Scott); Procter & Gamble (the maker of Charmin and creator of Mr. Whipple); and Koch Industries’ Georgia-Pacific (maker of Quilted Northern and Angel Soft). Clearwater Paper Corporation, which reportedly operates one of the world’s largest toilet paper factories in Lewiston, Idaho, is the nation’s biggest maker of store-brand toilet paper, such as for the grocery chain Kroger and for Costco. (According to the Idaho Statesman, each of the factory’s 1300 workers received 36 free rolls of toilet paper, as well as 24 rolls of paper towels, in what another local news outlet described as a “pandemic bonus.”)

Why the world isn’t flush with toilet paper

Global trade in toilet paper totaled $24.4 billion in 2018 – a relatively small figure compared to other consumer goods such as cosmetics ($44.5 billion), shoes ($99.6 billion) or refrigerators ($43.1 billion). International trade accounts for about 22 percent of global tissue consumption, according to one market analysis.

One reason that toilet paper-dependent countries like the United States rely on domestic production is that it’s the cheapest option. The United States, for instance, has plentiful supplies of both virgin and recycled wood pulp, which are the raw materials for toilet paper. And because of its bulk, toilet paper is also expensive to transport, which means that foreign toilet paper would be more costly by comparison – at least as a finished product. In fact, more than a third of the global trade in toilet paper is in so-called “parent rolls” of tissue – giant rolls that are converted by paper mills into smaller rolls and then packaged into the plastic-wrapped six-packs you would (normally) find on the shelf.

But there are other reasons why there is no vast global market for toilet paper, despite the central role it seemingly plays in Americans’ everyday lives. One is the popularity of bidets in many parts of the industrialized world, including in Europe and especially in Asia. As Tissue World Magazine points out, today’s high-tech bidets are stiff competition for low-tech toilet paper. In Japan, for instance, “high-tech toilets based on water and/or air jetting with several additional functions, including automatic lid opening, music, ozone deodorant systems and urinalysis, seem to have had some negative impact on toilet tissue consumption.” Among the most popular of these luxury bidets is the Washlet “personal cleaning system,” manufactured by Japan’s TOTO. In October 2019, the company celebrated its 50 millionth sale of the Washlet.

Bidets are potentially even catching on in the United States – perhaps in part to the current toilet paper panic as well-heeled consumers look for ways to do without toilet paper altogether. Wired, for example, recently reported a spike in Americans’ interest in bidets, including a deluge of calls to domestic bidet manufacturing startup Tushy. “This could be the tipping point that finally gets Americans to adopt the bidet,” CEO Jason Ojalvo told the magazine.

But perhaps the most significant reason the rest of the world doesn’t share Americans’ attachment to toilet paper is that this most basic of human rights – access to sanitation – does not exist in vast swathes of the globe. Not only is toilet paper unavailable, so are toilets.

A global crisis in sanitation

According to the United Nations, more than half the global population – 4.2 billion people – live without access to “safely managed” sanitation, which the UN defines as access to a “hygienic, private toilet that safely disposes of people’s waste.” As many as 673 million resort to “open defecation,” which contributes enormously to the transmission of disease. More than 2 billion people drink water contaminated by feces, the UN further reports.

One tragic result is that 432,000 people die each year from diarrheal diseases as a result of inadequate sanitation, according to the UN, including 297,000 children under the age of five. According to Rose George, author of The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why It Matters, diarrhea kills a child every 15 seconds. In contrast, she writes, “Modern sanitation has added 20 years to the average human life.”

Unfortunately, just 40 out of 152 countries that have pledged to provide universal sanitation by 2030 are on track to reach this goal, the result of funding shortfalls, increasing water pollution, poor governance and conflict. The current global crisis with COVID-19, certain to ravage the developing world, will set back this progress even more. In fact, the lack of sanitation – including access to clean water for hand hygiene – could accelerate the spread of disease in many parts of the world, adding to the pandemic’s already shocking human toll.

While it’s only a matter of time before U.S. grocery store shelves are stocked again with what Americans consider the most basic of staples, many more nations have far to go before they can experience the luxury of that deprivation.

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Anne Kim is a contributing editor to Washington Monthly and the author of Abandoned: America’s Lost Youth and the Crisis of Disconnection, forthcoming in 2020 from the New Press. Her writings on economic opportunity, social policy, and higher education have appeared in numerous national outlets, including the Washington Monthly, the Washington Post, Governing and Atlantic.com, among others. She is a veteran of the think tanks the Progressive Policy Institute and Third Way as well as of Capitol Hill, where she worked for Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN). Anne has a law degree from Duke University and a bachelor’s in journalism from the University of Missouri-Columbia.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.