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Record Production in 2022 to Curb Corn Price Growth

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Record Production in 2022 to Curb Corn Price Growth

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2022, corn prices are projected to drop by approximately 10% y/y due to an expected all-time record high global production, which is to reach 1.2B tonnes. This forecast is subject to a number of risks, such as volatile fertilizer and energy prices, high freight rates, biofuel policies and weather conditions.

Corn prices are forecast to ease in 2022 due to a sharp increase in global production. The world’s corn output is to soar by 7% y/y to a record 1.2B tonnes with higher crops in the U.S. and South America. Production in Brazil is expected to rise by 31% y/y to 114M tonnes, fully recovering from the last year’s 15%-drop caused by a drought. Argentine farmers are to harvest 54M tonnes of corn, 5% more than a year earlier. U.S. production will grow by 7% y/y to 384M tonnes.

Crop increases are also forecast in China, the E.U., Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa. Significant output growth is projected in Russia and Ukraine, where corn production is to rise by 8% y/y to 15M tonnes and by 39% y/y to 42M tonnes, respectively.

According to World Bank data, the average annual price for U.S. corn (no. 2, yellow, FOB, U.S. Gulf ports) grew by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne in 2021. This year, the price is projected to drop by approx. 10% y/y with sufficient supply, but rising fertilizer and energy prices, logistic tensions, changing biofuel policies and weather conditions still pose risks on price stability.

World’s Largest Corn Importers

In 2020, approx. 146M tonnes of maize were imported worldwide, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In value terms, maize imports stood at $35.9B (IndexBox estimates).

Japan (16M tonnes), Viet Nam (12M tonnes), South Korea (12M tonnes), China (11M tonnes), Egypt (8.5M tonnes), Spain (8.1M tonnes), Colombia (6.2M tonnes), Italy (6.1M tonnes), the Netherlands (5.9M tonnes), Taiwan (Chinese) (4.4M tonnes), Malaysia (3.8M tonnes) and Germany (3.8M tonnes) represented the major importer of maize in the world, generating 67% of total volume. Peru (3.8M tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The most notable growth rate of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by China. Its volume of imports grew twofold in 2020.

In value terms, Japan ($3.3B), China ($2.5B) and Viet Nam ($2.4B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of purchases in 2020, together comprising 23% of global imports.

In 2020, the average maize import price amounted to $246 per tonne, stabilizing at the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2020, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Germany ($265 per tonne) and the Netherlands ($224 per tonne), while Colombia ($198 per tonne) and Viet Nam ($198 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. The most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth in 2020.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Corn Prices to Lose 10% in 2022, U.S. Exports Double to $16.5B

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2022, the average annual maize price is forecast to drop by 10% y-o-y due to higher global production and lower demand from Asia, after growing by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne last year. Thanks to rising corn prices and increased demand for feed grains in Canada, U.S. maize export sales reached $16.5B in January-October 2021, doubling compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to World Bank’s data, the average annual corn price grew by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne in 2021. This year, it is expected to decrease by 10% y-o-y with higher output and lower demand for feed use in Asia. At the same time, this forecast is subject to several risks, including explosive energy and fertilizer prices, high freight rates, biofuel policies and weather conditions.

Rising corn prices and high demand for feed grains in Canada stimulated the growth of export value from the U.S. Throughout January-October 2021, total U.S. maize supplies reached 60M tonnes, expanding by 30% compared to the same previous year. In value terms, American corn exports grew twofold, reaching a record $16.5B. USDA predicts that U.S. maize sales to Canada will rise ninefold, surpassing 3M tonnes in 2022. High prices for feed barley in Canada are set to propel the growth of demand for substitutes, including corn.

World’s Largest Corn Suppliers

In 2020, the volume of maize exported worldwide rose notably to 169M tonnes, picking up by 6.4% compared with the previous year’s figure. In value terms, supplies stood at $36.4B.

The shipments of the four significant maize exporters, namely the U.S., Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, represented more than two-thirds of global volume. Romania (5.7M tonnes), France (4.5M tonnes), Hungary (4M tonnes) and Bulgaria (2.6M tonnes) held a minor share of total exports.

In value terms, the U.S. ($9.6B), Argentina ($6.4B) and Brazil ($5.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of supplies in 2020, with a combined 60% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Ukraine, France, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, which accounted for 24%.

U.S. Corn Exports in 2020

Maize exports from the U.S. soared to 52M tonnes in 2020, increasing 25% against 2019 figures. In value terms, supplies skyrocketed to $9.6B (IndexBox estimates).

Mexico (15M tonnes), Japan (10M tonnes) and China (6.9M tonnes) were the main destinations of maize exports from the U.S., with a combined 62% share of total volume.

In value terms, the largest markets for maize supplied from the U.S. were Mexico ($2.7B), Japan ($1.9B) and China ($1.2B), together accounting for 61% of total exports.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Thailand, Hungary and France Lead Canned Sweet Corn Exports

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Sweet Corn Prepared Or Preserved – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, global preserved sweet corn exports rose by +4.1% y-o-y to $1B. Thailand, Hungary and France head the list of the largest exporters worldwide. The average export price for preserved sweet corn remained relatively unchanged in 2020. Germany, the UK, Japan were the prime destinations for imported last year. 

Preserved Sweet Corn Exports by Country

In 2020, the amount of sweet corn prepared or preserved exported worldwide rose modestly to 799K tonnes, increasing by +3.1% against the previous year. In value terms, exports expanded by +4.1% y-o-y to $1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

Thailand (213K tonnes), Hungary (193K tonnes) and France (130K tonnes) represented roughly 67% of total exports of sweet corn prepared or preserved in 2020. The U.S. (70K tonnes) occupied the next position in the ranking, followed by China (57K tonnes). All these countries together occupied near 16% share of total exports. The following exporters – Spain (25K tonnes) and Belgium (22K tonnes) – each amounted to a 5.8% share of total exports.

In value terms, Hungary ($228M), Thailand ($216M) and France ($193M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, together accounting for 61% of global exports. France recorded the highest rates of growth regarding the value of exports.

The average export price stood at $1,307 per tonne in 2020, approximately mirroring the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was China ($2,244 per tonne), while Thailand ($1,013 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Major Importers of Preserved Sweet Corn

In 2020, Germany (85K tonnes), the UK (75K tonnes), Japan (59K tonnes) were the largest importers of preserved sweet corn. They were followed by Russia, South Korea, Spain, Belgium, France, the U.S., Italy, Poland and the Philippines. These twelve countries accounted for 60% of the total global import.

In value terms, the largest preserved sweet corn importing markets worldwide were Germany ($117M), the UK ($107M) and Japan ($97M), with a combined 31% share of global imports. Spain, Belgium, South Korea, Russia, France, Italy, Sweden, Poland, the U.S. and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Preserved Sweet Corn Market in the EU – Key Insights

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IndexBox has just published a new report, the EU – Sweet Corn Prepared Or Preserved – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the preserved sweet corn market in the European Union amounted to $459M in 2017, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008, when the market value increased by 28% against the previous year. The level of preserved sweet corn consumption peaked at $505M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, consumption failed to regain its momentum.

Production in the EU

The preserved sweet corn production amounted to 350K tonnes in 2017, growing by 2.5% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Preserved Sweet Corn Exports

Exports in the EU

In 2017, approx. 376K tonnes of sweet corn prepared or preserved were exported in the European Union; jumping by 4.7% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, preserved sweet corn exports totaled $474M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The preserved sweet corn exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, preserved sweet corn exports reached their peak figure at $582M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

Hungary was the largest exporter of sweet corn prepared or preserved in the European Union, with the volume of exports resulting at 187K tonnes, which was near 50% of total exports in 2017. France (105K tonnes) took a 28% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Spain (6.4%) and Belgium (5%). The following exporters – the Netherlands (9K tonnes), Germany (7.8K tonnes), Sweden (7.1K tonnes) and Italy (6.2K tonnes) each accounted for a 8% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the Netherlands (+25.4% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest preserved sweet corn markets worldwide were Hungary ($198M), France ($153M) and Spain ($41M), together accounting for 83% of total exports. These countries were followed by Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Sweden, which together accounted for a further 14%.

Export Prices by Country

The preserved sweet corn export price in the European Union stood at $1.3 per kg in 2017, approximately reflecting the previous year. The the preserved sweet corn export price continues to indicate a mild shrinkage.

There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2017, the country with the highest export price was Spain ($1.7 per kg), while Sweden ($890 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Germany (+0.7% per year), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Preserved Sweet Corn Imports

Imports in the EU

In 2017, approx. 384K tonnes of sweet corn prepared or preserved were imported in the European Union; growing by 6.4% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years.

In value terms, preserved sweet corn imports stood at $470M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, preserved sweet corn imports attained their maximum at $562M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2017, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of preserved sweet corn imports in 2017 were Germany (75K tonnes), the UK (67K tonnes), Belgium (46K tonnes), Spain (42K tonnes), France (28K tonnes), Italy (23K tonnes), Sweden (18K tonnes), the Netherlands (17K tonnes) and Poland (16K tonnes), together accounting for 86% of total import.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Belgium (+12.7% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest preserved sweet corn markets worldwide were the UK ($88M), Germany ($86M) and Spain ($60M), together accounting for 50% of total imports. These countries were followed by Belgium, France, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands and Poland, which together accounted for a further 37%.

Import Prices by Country

The preserved sweet corn import price in the European Union stood at $1.2 per kg in 2017, reducing by -2.4% against the previous year. The the preserved sweet corn import price continues to indicate a slight contraction.

There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2017, the country with the highest import price was Sweden ($1.6 per kg), while Belgium ($888 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Poland (+0.1% per year), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform