The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have significantly disrupted global supply chains, yet trans-Pacific container rates are witnessing unexpected shifts due to strategic carrier adaptations. Recent reports highlight that the imposition of a steep 145% tariff on Chinese goods has led to a substantial drop in China-U.S. ocean freight demand, with figures indicating declines of 30% to over 50% in recent weeks.
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Carriers are responding by canceling a notable share of China-North America sailings and temporarily halting entire service loops. Estimates from IndexBox suggest that 28% of trans-Pacific capacity to the West Coast and 42% to the East Coast will be removed shortly. This reduction in capacity is smaller than the drop in demand, as increased volumes from other Far East countries are partially offsetting the decline.
Freightos Terminal data shows that container rates have remained surprisingly stable despite these disruptions. For instance, while rates from Shanghai to Long Beach have fallen more than 30% since the reciprocal tariffs took effect, prices from Saigon have stayed elevated. This divergence is attributed to the ongoing 90-day tariff pause for certain countries, prompting shippers to accelerate shipments before its expiration.
The shift in shipping patterns has resulted in a 20% increase in bookings from Southeast Asia, according to forwarders. Carriers may reallocate some of the blanked China-U.S. capacity to these lanes to meet the rising demand, although this could lead to congestion and equipment shortages as volumes shift away from China.
