IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Coal – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Asia-Pacific coal market increased by 6.1% to $751.8B, rising for the third consecutive year after four years of decline. The total market indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption by Country

China (4,136M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal consumption, accounting for 69% of total volume. Moreover, coal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1,012M tonnes), fourfold. Japan (186M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.1% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +3.7%. In India, the average annual rate of growth amounted to +5.2% per year, while in and Japan, the volume of consumption remained relatively unchanged against its outset level.

In value terms, China ($572.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($90.7B). It was followed by Japan.

The countries with the highest levels of coal per capita consumption in 2019 were Australia (4.85 tonne per person), China (2.84 tonne per person) and South Korea (2.78 tonne per person).

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Indonesia, while coal per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, production of coal increased by 3% to 5,771M tonnes, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 12% year-to-year. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production by Country

China (3,842M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal production, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, coal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (760M tonnes), fivefold. Indonesia (536M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.3% share.

In China, coal production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+3.7% per year) and Indonesia (+7.8% per year).

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, supplies from abroad of coal increased by 2.2% to 1,093M tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +24.1% against 2015 indices. The volume of import peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, coal imports contracted to $102B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, imports posted a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 79% y-o-y. The level of import peaked at $110.7B in 2018, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2019, China (300M tonnes), India (254M tonnes), Japan (186M tonnes) and South Korea (141M tonnes) were the main importers of coal in Asia-Pacific, creating 81% of total import. They were distantly followed by Taiwan, Chinese (67M tonnes), committing a 6.1% share of total imports. The following importers – Malaysia (34M tonnes) and the Philippines (27M tonnes) – together made up 5.6% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($23.4B), Japan ($23.3B) and India ($23B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 68% of total imports.

China saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The coal import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $93 per tonne in 2019, waning by -9.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated tangible growth from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when the import price increased by 71% y-o-y. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $130 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Japan ($125 per tonne), while the Philippines ($70 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform