IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Fresh Cheese – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the fresh cheese market in the European Union amounted to $12.6B in 2018, remaining stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, fresh cheese consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the fresh cheese market attained its maximum level at $14B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of fresh cheese consumption in 2018 were Italy (967K tonnes), France (585K tonnes) and Germany (548K tonnes), together accounting for 52% of total consumption. These countries were followed by the UK, Poland, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and Sweden, which together accounted for a further 37%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of fresh cheese consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Italy ($3.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the UK ($1.7B). It was followed by France.

The countries with the highest levels of fresh cheese per capita consumption in 2018 were Italy (16,290 kg per 1000 persons), Belgium (13,307 kg per 1000 persons) and Poland (10,450 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of fresh cheese per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in the EU

Driven by increasing demand for fresh cheese in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.3M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 4.4M tonnes of fresh cheese were produced in the European Union; going up by 1.6% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when production volume increased by 11% y-o-y. Over the period under review, fresh cheese production attained its peak figure volume in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fresh cheese production amounted to $11.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, fresh cheese production continues to indicate a mild shrinkage. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 15% y-o-y. Over the period under review, fresh cheese production attained its peak figure level at $14.3B in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of fresh cheese production in 2018 were Germany (928K tonnes), Italy (927K tonnes) and France (688K tonnes), with a combined 58% share of total production. Poland, the UK, Denmark, Belgium, Spain and Lithuania lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of fresh cheese production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Belgium, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the fresh cheese exports in the European Union totaled 1.6M tonnes, growing by 2.1% against the previous year. The total exports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh cheese exports increased by +91.0% against 2007 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh cheese exports attained their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fresh cheese exports amounted to $5.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh cheese exports increased by +30.3% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when exports increased by 23% y-o-y. Over the period under review, fresh cheese exports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Germany was the largest exporting country with an export of about 516K tonnes, which resulted at 32% of total exports. It was distantly followed by France (221K tonnes), Denmark (183K tonnes), Italy (181K tonnes), Poland (96K tonnes) and Belgium (86K tonnes), together achieving a 48% share of total exports. The UK (67K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from Germany increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Belgium (+15.3%), Poland (+7.9%), Italy (+6.9%), Denmark (+6.4%), the UK (+5.9%) and France (+2.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the European Union, with a CAGR of +15.3% from 2007-2018. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Germany, Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Poland, France and the UK increased by +14%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +4.3%, +3.4%, +3% and +2% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest fresh cheese markets in the European Union were Germany ($1.6B), Italy ($964M) and Denmark ($638M), with a combined 58% share of total exports. France, Belgium, Poland and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Belgium experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The fresh cheese export price in the European Union stood at $3,504 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 2.4% against the previous year. In general, the fresh cheese export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 an increase of 18% y-o-y. In that year, the export prices for fresh cheese reached their peak level of $4,179 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the export prices for fresh cheese failed to regain its momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Italy ($5,330 per tonne), while France ($2,660 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, the amount of fresh cheese imported in the European Union stood at 1.3M tonnes, increasing by 5.4% against the previous year. The total imports indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh cheese imports increased by +76.1% against 2007 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. The volume of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fresh cheese imports amounted to $4.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a strong increase from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh cheese imports increased by +29.3% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 21% year-to-year. The level of imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

The countries with the highest levels of fresh cheese imports in 2018 were Italy (221K tonnes), the UK (189K tonnes), Germany (137K tonnes), the Netherlands (127K tonnes), France (118K tonnes), Spain (95K tonnes) and Belgium (77K tonnes), together resulting at 74% of total import. Austria (39K tonnes), Poland (33K tonnes), Romania (33K tonnes), the Czech Republic (26K tonnes) and Ireland (25K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Ireland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh cheese importing markets in the European Union were Italy ($778M), the UK ($573M) and Germany ($507M), with a combined 42% share of total imports. France, the Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Poland, Romania, Ireland and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Poland experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the fresh cheese import price in the European Union amounted to $3,409 per tonne, rising by 3.7% against the previous year. Overall, the fresh cheese import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 17% against the previous year. In that year, the import prices for fresh cheese attained their peak level of $3,996 per tonne. From 2009 to 2018, the growth in terms of the import prices for fresh cheese failed to regain its momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in France ($3,885 per tonne) and Austria ($3,750 per tonne), while the Netherlands ($2,750 per tonne) and the UK ($3,029 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform