barley market Archives

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Barley – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

2021 is forecast to see global barley supplies outstripped by demand. This may lead to a sharp rise in grain prices. A substantial proportion of consumption growth is driven by the demand from China for barley-based feed, as China’s livestock population continues to recover from the swine fever outbreak. Shortages in supply are expected due to the poor crop yield owing to the adverse weather conditions in Russia, Australia, Turkey and the UK.

Key Trends and Insights

Global barley production is set to decline by 1.5% (IndexBox estimates) in 2021 against 2020 when the global barley harvest amounted to a record 160М tonnes. A projected poor crop yield in Russia, Australia, Turkey and the UK is to hamper this year’s results. Meanwhile, a robust yield is expected in Argentina, Kazakhstan, Canada and Ukraine, but this remains insufficient to offset the global output decline. Global barley stocks are running low as a result of demand outpacing supply, which could lead to a rise in prices.

In China, robust demand is forecast for barley for animal feeding, as the country sees its livestock population recovering in the wake of the swine fever outbreak. In 2020, China increased barley imports in physical terms by 36% against the previous year. In 2021, China is projected to see a further 9% surge in imports.

The consumption in the EU is projected to fall due to the increased use of wheat in animal feed instead of barley. In Australia and Thailand, the volume of barley exports to Asia is forecast to decline as a result of China’s introduction of anti-dumping taxes. To substitute supplies from Australia and Thailand, imports from Canada to China are expected to increase.

In Russia, poor weather conditions at the end of 2020 damaged winter crops, which is to adversely affect the yield figures. It is expected that the fields will be resown with oil-bearing and spring crops. Russia is also being affected by a lack of available labor as migrant workers were unable to return to Russia during the pandemic. This leads to a shortfall of more than 30K laborers in the agricultural sector.

The global barley market is set to reach 13M tonnes by 2030 as a result of increasing demand. The increase in barley prices could contribute to the accelerating food inflation in the world, which undermines the effect of income-support measures during a pandemic and becomes a serious barrier to the food market growth.

Global Barley Consumption

In 2020, the global barley market increased by 3.4% to $44.3B, rising for the second year in a row after five years of decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 14% year-to-year. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $44.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2020, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of barley consumption in 2020 were Russia (17M tonnes), Germany (11M tonnes) and China (9.7M tonnes), together accounting for 23% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in China, while barley consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($3.3B), Turkey ($3.1B) and China ($2.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2020, together comprising 20% of the global market.

The countries with the highest levels of barley per capita consumption in 2020 were Canada (203 kg per person), Australia (199 kg per person) and Spain (165 kg per person).

Global Barley Exports

In 2020, the amount of barley exported worldwide skyrocketed to 35M tonnes, with an increase of 18% against 2019. In value terms, barley exports expanded notably to $6.9B in 2020.

The biggest shipments were from France (6.8M tonnes), Ukraine (5M tonnes), Australia (4.3M tonnes), Russia (4.2M tonnes), Canada (2.8M tonnes) and Germany (2.4M tonnes), together resulting at 74% of total export. The following exporters – the UK (1.6M tonnes), Romania (1.3M tonnes), Hungary (0.8M tonnes) and Denmark (0.7M tonnes) – together made up 13% of total exports.

In value terms, France ($1.4B), Australia ($908M) and Ukraine ($878M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 46% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Russia, Canada, Germany, the UK, Romania, Denmark and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 40%.

The average barley export price stood at $199 per tonne in 2020, reducing by -8.7% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2020, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Denmark ($217 per tonne) and Canada ($214 per tonne), while in Ukraine ($174 per tonne) and Hungary ($175 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Middle East – Barley – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Middle Eastern barley market increased by 8.4% to $5B, rising for the second consecutive year after four years of decline. Overall, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the market value increased by 16% y-o-y. As a result, consumption reached a peak level of $7.6B. From 2014 to 2019, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of barley consumption in 2019 were Turkey (7.5M tonnes), Iran (5.3M tonnes), and Saudi Arabia (4.2M tonnes), together comprising 82% of total consumption. These countries were followed by Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Syrian Arab Republic, which together accounted for a further 12%.

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Kuwait, while barley consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($1.9B), Iran ($1.2B), and Saudi Arabia ($998M) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2019, together accounting for 82% of the total market. Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq, and the Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

The countries with the highest levels of barley per capita consumption in 2019 were Kuwait (140 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (121 kg per person), and Turkey (91 kg per person).

Production in the Middle East

Barley production shrank modestly to 11M tonnes in 2019, approximately reflecting 2018. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern.

Turkey (7M tonnes) remains the largest barley producing country in the Middle East, accounting for 65% of total volume. Moreover, barley production in Turkey exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Iran (2.8M tonnes), threefold. Iraq (557K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.2% share.

In Turkey, barley production remained relatively stable over the period from 2007-2019. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Iran (-0.9% per year) and Iraq (-2.4% per year).

Harvested Area and Yield in the Middle East

In 2019, approx. 6.1M ha of barley were harvested in the Middle East; waning by -1.6% against the previous year. In general, the harvested area recorded a mild contraction.

In 2019, the average yield of barley in the Middle East totaled 1.8 tonnes per ha, stabilizing at the previous year’s figure. Over the period under review, the barley yield reached the peak level at 2 tonnes per ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Imports in the Middle East

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of barley decreased by -2.8% to 10M tonnes in 2019. Overall, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern.Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at 13M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, barley imports totaled $2.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019.

Imports by Country

Saudi Arabia was the main importing country with an import of about 4.2M tonnes, which amounted to 42% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Iran (2.6M tonnes), Jordan (0.9M tonnes), Kuwait (0.6M tonnes), and Turkey (0.6M tonnes), together committing a 46% share of total imports. The following importers – the United Arab Emirates (383K tonnes) and Israel (359K tonnes) – each comprised a 7.4% share of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Iran, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($966M), Iran ($546M), and Jordan ($213M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 74% of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

In 2019, the barley import price in the Middle East amounted to $231 per tonne, increasing by 6.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a perceptible downturn. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $307 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2019, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Jordan ($248 per tonne) and Kuwait ($231 per tonne), while Israel ($209 per tonne) and Iran ($213 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Iran, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.