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IF DAYS COUNT, HOW ABOUT HOURS? 2019 BANKING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Archives, Banking, Global Trade Daily

IF DAYS COUNT, HOW ABOUT HOURS? 2019 BANKING INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

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Last year got off to an energetic start. It’s been a year now and how memories can fade, but economic growth worldwide was intensifying in January, advancing at a steady clip, and then … clunk. China, Japan, the Eurozone economies and the United Kingdom all began to weaken. The U.S. kept it moving but despite its acceleration, world markets continued to contract and pundits are now predicting a slowdown from 3.2 percent growth in 2018 to 3.0 percent in 2019.

With that said, however, the global banking system finds itself in one of its best positions in more than a decade. While recovery from the financial crisis has not been consistent across regions, total assets (per The Banker’s Top 1,000 World Banks Ranking for 2018) ascended to $124 trillion and return on assets (ROE) posted an impressive 0.90 percent. Banks in the U.S. have returned to health much more quickly thanks to forceful policy interventions and prudent regulatory measures. Total U.S. bank assets coming into 2019 hover in the $17.5 trillion range and efficiency ratios are posting new highs.

Within the larger transportation, logistics and supply chain management arena, banks and their ancillary collaborators play a critical role in financing a complex system of moving parts and players. Innovation is critical and for 2019 the banking outlook will be defined in large part by further technological developments and closer collaboration between actors.

Blockchain

We’ve been hearing about blockchain for a while now, but 2019 is poised to be a breakthrough moment for blockchain in the banking sector, with a notable focus on supply-chain management. Close to every major company worldwide runs enterprise resource planning (ERP) and supply chain management software. Yet, there are still some antiquated, human elements mixed in which make it difficult for firms to take full advantage of the technology. Global supply chains are giant ecosystems, with hundreds if not thousands or tens of thousands of moving parts, all trying to work together from a financial perspective to either achieve financing, transfer funds or get paid. Efficiency is at an all-time high, which means delivery times have been shortened and are putting pressure on middlemen (banks) to process funding for all transactional entities.

Blockchain has the potential to accelerate payment processing time and reduce transaction costs. According to an Accenture survey, “nine in 10 executives said their bank is currently exploring the use of blockchain.” Instead of relying on a central intermediary that would need to be negotiated with, managed and shared around the world, blockchains synchronize transactions and data across a shared network where everything is transparent and open to those on the network.

This last point is critical, however, as blockchain and distributed ledgers are only as valuable as the shared network they sit upon. Expect more integrated collaboration across countries with not only banks but financial technology companies (FinTechs) to arrive at a backbone in 2019 with which to underpin the system.

FinTech Collaboration

Mentioned earlier, FinTechs have exploded due to the ever-increasing integration of trade across borders. In earlier times, certain FinTechs concentrated their collaboration with individual banks, but 2019 is opening the door to a wider, broader banking ecosystem where FinTechs are developing and bringing to the table innovative technology—such as robotics, artificial intelligence and machine learning—to the collective table.

FinTechs make sense for banks as banks desire one thing: the best ROE they can achieve. In 2016, EY reported the largest 200 global banks reported average ROE of 7.1 percent. To get to 12 percent, for example, those same banks would need to increase revenues by roughly 15 percent and reduce their costs by just under 14 percent. FinTechs help banks streamline, drive down costs and enhance customer service. This is going to be front and center in 2019 and for years to come.

At the moment, approximately 12 percent of European supply chain finance programs are managed via FinTech platforms. The statistic in North America is not much different and while this figure perhaps will not double by the end of the year, the cooperation between FinTechs and banks will become much more pronounced.

Artificial Intelligence

Lastly, AI. Hardly confined to the financial sector, AI is revolutionizing how nearly every sector of the economy works. From virtual assistants such as Amazon’s Alexa to chatbots, at an individual level Accenture reports that 37 percent of U.S. consumers by the end of last year will have owned a digital voice assistance device. This has been spilling over into banking in a multitude of ways.

Customer service automation, especially vital across countries, languages and within supply chains, is resolving client issues at a fraction of the price as opposed to a real person. Autonomous predicted that AI could result in $450 billion in financial sector savings by 2030. In a similar vein, machine learning is integrating and analyzing data from multiple databases to arrive at a more holistic, 360-degree view of the customer or firm, which results in highly personalized products and services uniquely tailored per group. Behavioral data, credit and savings products and goals of the organization or person (personal goals) are shared and analyzed accordingly.

While not commonly associated with AI, fraud prevention and overall security will also be big issues for the banking sector moving into 2019. In this regard, AI is proving to be of excellent assistance with its unique ability to run through hoards of data and identify patterns that would otherwise elude the human eye. McAfee notes that cybercrime costs the world economy approximately $600 billion. AI can detect fraud in real time, providing banking and FinTech entities, as well as their customers and ancillary suppliers, information on the spot that could be disastrous if not managed correctly. With AI alone, Mastercard reduced “false declines” for its customers by 80 percent.

This year will likely see more radical banking changes as compared to 2018. As the world economy continues to work through some bumps and bruises, expect the banking outlook to be rosier.

Archives, Banking, Global Trade Daily

AND THE ENVELOPES, PLEASE

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What do a U.S. manufacturer, a Swedish retailer and a South African pharmacy chain all share in common? Hillenbrand (U.S.), ICA Group (Sweden) and Dischem Pharmacies (South Africa) battled it out with four other global firms recently at the 2018 Supply Chain Finance Awards.

Held Nov. 29 in Amsterdam, sponsored by global financial institution ING and organized by the Supply Chain Finance (SCF) Community, a global entity of professionals, private firms and knowledge institutions, their annual awards not only recognize achievements in the larger SCF world but also promote greater unity and collaboration as it grows and matures.

With industrial value chains becoming increasingly complex, manufacturers in 2018 relied heavily on interlocking supplier networks. More actors equate to increased risk, principally because parties do not know one another, and many times they are working across time zones and borders where physical relationships are nearly impossible to foster. Through shared new research and best practices, the SCF Community is helping to reduce complexity and risk and keeping cash liquid, something that benefits both sides of a transaction.

A typical contract is comprised of a buyer and a supplier. Each have distinct interests but both desire at least one thing in common: optimized cash flow. This produces a natural conflict as the buyer seeks to delay payment (to retain their cash) and the seller needs to release the product and invoice the buyer to receive payment as quickly as possible. With SCF, there is a third actor added to the mix–the funder or financing institution–which buys receivables or invoices at a discount from suppliers. The suppliers get their cash quickly and the bank then deals directly with the buyer.

The SCF process encourages collaboration instead of fomenting competition, which is a natural extension of a relationship where both parties desire the same, individually advantageous outcome. And SCF works even better when the buyer possesses a superior credit rating to the seller. A savvy buyer will use this to negotiate better terms from the seller, but the seller can also capitalize immediately by selling its receivables to the financing institution for immediate payment.

 

SCF at a Glance

It is useful to understand the SCF concept at a macro level because it does a lot of things but not everything. As such:

1. Not a loan – For the supplier, a true sale of its receivables is on the books, so supplier finance is simply an extension of the buyer’s accounts payable. Thus, the process is not considered a financial debt.

2. Multibank capacity – More than one financial institution can take part in the process, which adds a tremendous amount of flexibility.

3. Not factoring – In most circumstances, the supplier receives payment on the invoice (minus a standard transaction fee). Once the invoice is settled, there is no recourse burden on the supplier.

4. Equal opportunity – The beauty with SCF is it provides value not just for large companies but firms of all sizes (and credit ratings). This also includes SME suppliers.

 

The Awards

The 2018 Supply Chain Finance Awards jury, composed of the leading minds from the Fraunhofer Institute, the Luxottica Group, Nestrade S.A. and Metso, had its hands full this year. On the Transport & Logistics side, Kuehne + Nagel Group took home the award for Best SCF Solution. The Swiss-based holding with 1,336 offices worldwide and more than 75,000 employees had bested DHL Global Forwarding, Panalpina and DB Schenker in accounting for roughly 15 percent of the word’s sea and air freight business revenue.

This year, Logistics Kuehne + Nagel added an SCF layer on an already efficient Tradeshift e-invoicing platform, which now provides an unparalleled amount of transparency with regards to invoice status as well as all relevant SCF information. For small and medium-sized suppliers, early payment options are critical, and the Kuehne + Nagel solution gives them the ability to create invoices quickly online, which can result in payment within a matter of days.

The cash-conversion cycle lies at the heart of the matter with, again, both buyer and seller seeking to either maintain liquidity or add liquidity as soon as possible. The jury recognized Kuehne + Nagel’s ability to not only improve on this cycle but also advance the relationship between buyer and supplier, a natural win-win and one that the SFC Community seeks to foster. Kuehne + Nagel works with Citi to offer early payment options to more than 16 North American and European countries, spanning eight currencies. Asian and the Middle East are next for 2019.

Speed is crucial, and this is an area where Kuehne + Nagel set itself apart, having been recognized in the 2017 Adam Smith Awards in the category “Best Trade/Supply Chain Finance Solution.”

To stay abreast on news surrounding the 2019 awards, visit the regularly updated SCF Forum website: www.scf-forum.com/venue.html.