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Global Trade Talk: Navigating Geopolitical Currents in a Changing Southeast Asia

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Global Trade Talk: Navigating Geopolitical Currents in a Changing Southeast Asia

Global Trade Talk is part of an ongoing series highlighting international business, trade, investment, and site location issues and opportunities. This article focuses on the conversation between Simon Tay, Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs and Keith Rabin, President, KWR International, Inc.

Hello Simon. How have you been? Before we begin can you tell our readers about your background and current activities?

I am Chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). We focus on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a regional organization comprised of ten countries in Southeast Asia, as well as the wider Asia Pacific and Singapore’s role as a hub for trade and investment and greater integration in the region. This includes a range of geopolitical issues including the rise of China, the role of the US, and most recently the coronavirus pandemic, which is serving as an accelerator for changes that have been occurring over the last decade.

Professionally, I am an attorney and was a member of Parliament from 1997-2001, serving during the Asian financial crisis. Then during the 2008 global financial crisis, I was stationed in New York at the Asia Society where we first met. These experiences have given me a unique perspective on the impact of globalization and other trends we have experienced over the past two decades.

While ASEAN currently possesses the third-largest economy in the Indo-Pacific and fifth largest in the world, many foreigners have never even heard of the regional group nor do they recognize its potential. Can you talk about how ASEAN evolved, what it represents as a commercial market and investment destination, and in terms of security and its global importance? What opportunities and obstacles and investment themes are of particular importance to foreign companies and investors in the coming years?

I don’t blame people for not knowing ASEAN. When one looks to Asia, one’s eyes are first drawn to the giants. China in particular has done very well over the past twenty years and no country has grown faster during that time. As it developed and labor costs and standards of living rose, Southeast Asia began to capture the attention of businesses, and deservedly so. ASEAN now has growing appeal, because of greater integration as we create an ASEAN Community with increased consumption and growth. That is why many people refer to us as the fifth largest economy in the world.

The reality, however, is a bit short of that – as we are not really one country or one system. We are, however, working to realize the “ASEAN 2025 Vision.” This is a roadmap adopted in 2015 to articulate regional goals to create a more cohesive ASEAN Community. SIIA is currently working on the ASEAN mid-term review, which is examining our progress, and how crises such as the pandemic can strengthen our will to more fully integrate. While an unfinished project, given the diversity in the region, it is — in some ways — every bit as ambitious as the establishment of the European Union (EU). The trend is toward closer integration.

Before the Asian financial crisis, which began in the summer of 1997, the region was mostly viewed, at least in the US, through the lens of the Vietnam War. Over the last twenty+ years we have advanced, however, and growth in ASEAN has been reinforced. This is true both in developed countries such as Singapore and Thailand, developing nations such as Vietnam and Myanmar, and those in between. Before the pandemic, ASEAN as a whole was growing at a faster rate than China. While the pandemic is hitting our people and economies hard, the region should still outperform the world.

The fundamentals are real. ASEAN is ascending from a lower base, leaving substantial room for further growth. There are many opportunities as countries raise consumption and leapfrog using software, digital innovation, and a greater online presence. Diverse sectors can do well, including labor-intensive manufacturing, infrastructure, services, consumer markets, and others that are part of the new economy.

As you note many people view ASEAN as being similar to the EU, a vehicle grouping together a group of countries into a more integrated market, though without a common currency. Is that fair and can you talk about both the diversity of ASEAN as well as the steps being taken to link these ten nations into a more cohesive entity? Is it possible for companies to have an “ASEAN strategy” or should they be looking at individual markets?

Given what I said about ASEAN, and how it is not yet a cohesive union, that is a very good question. The answer is yes and yes. Movement toward greater integration is very clear but we are not like China or the EU where you can put up one office and that’s it for the region. In a way, this is an economic strength as well as a political challenge.

In ASEAN you have an opportunity to link supply chains from a hub like Singapore, which offers first-class amenities, to less developed markets with eager and driven populations rising out of poverty and looking for jobs in factories and a more modern lifestyle. Myanmar for example is a sizable country with a pool of young people looking for jobs and a government seeking to develop. Myanmar also has a sizable expatriate population that has lived and worked in countries such as Singapore and Thailand, as well as Australia, Europe and the US, where they received education and training. Now their economies are opening – and they are returning with capacity, experience and ideas to implement change. So these countries are not starting from zero.

In between, you have countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Labor there remains hungry for work, the land is relatively cheap and demand is growing. Today, a lot of attention is focused on Vietnam in particular. This is a country of almost 100 million young, dynamic, and hard-working people, which is well on its way to becoming a competitive supply base for many products.

ASEAN also benefits from not being China. Our diversity offers a decentralized model that adds diversification to global supply chains. It can be more complex to work across ASEAN — there is no one President or government to go to – but it is also less risky for those who can manage across borders – as it is not a case where if one government or economy fails, then the investor also fails. Moreover, ASEAN is not a threat to anyone politically. Vietnam for example has a trade surplus with the US whereas Singapore has a deficit.

Those who invest in ASEAN benefit from having an alternative to China, though are still located in this growing region. This allows synergies with production clusters based there. Being in ASEAN allows companies and investors to benefit and participate in this growing regional economy without putting more eggs into the China basket.

You mentioned the US has enjoyed strong ties with ASEAN since its birth in 1967. This was a time when the US sought to develop regional allies in the face of the Vietnam and Cold Wars. Today, however, despite a move to initiate an “Asian Pivot” under the Obama administration and talk of the “Indo-Pacific” under President Trump, some question US commitment to the region. How do you view the US presence and role within ASEAN? What should US companies and leaders know about ASEAN and how does their presence compare to other nations including Japan, Korea, Australia, and the EU?

The US remains an important partner and market for ASEAN and when looking at its involvement in the region, there are three strands we can talk about. The first is like an underlying current in the ocean, the second is the waves on top, and third like a bright object on the surface. If you look at the current, the destiny of the US remains very much an outward one. It is the country that created the modern world and global trading system you and I have grown up in. It was built to America’s advantage and I think this strong current of the US having shaped and benefitted from this world is ever-present despite current tensions. So we have not seen, whichever President, a lack of interest from US business, its military or security establishment. So whether you call it an Asian Pivot, Indo-Pacific region or before that the War on Terrorism, we believe this current can and should have reasons to continue.

At the same time, there are waves on the surface. These are more noticeable, as it is hard to see the underlying current unless you put your hand deep below. The waves do matter and I would say right now they are choppy and we are now going through a period where Americans are questioning globalization and retreating from multilateralism and international engagement. I was in Seattle during the 1999 WTO protests. At the time President Clinton had the political savvy to suggest we let these voices in to assuage concerns – even as he was the president who signed and implemented the NAFTA agreement. As a result, after a time, things calmed down and the situation became less tense for the moment.

Since then, however, the waves have gotten more turbulent, and it is important to recognize the tensions that brought Trump into office are not singular to him. Remember that Hillary Clinton responded to those choppy waves in her election bid. She supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement while Secretary of State, and yet as a candidate against Trump, she too expressed doubts about the TPP. So it is not just the Trump administration and we can see a wave of US constituencies questioning and expressing concerns.

The concern is rising to the point where now even the underlying current of outward movement that I mentioned is less visible. Companies are now being judged by how many jobs they are reshoring and their loyalty to America and American jobs. This is now seen as more important than an overall win-win growing the global economic pie paradigm, which has guided the thinking of policymakers and companies for decades.

And then there is the ball or float which can be seen in tweets and incendiary rhetoric. These attract a lot of attention and concern but they are not necessarily consistent. You mentioned the Indo-Pacific strategy and frankly, I haven’t really seen one. I have seen Indo-Pacific statements and senior US officials talking about issues, but I haven’t seen an overall strategy tying things together. I have to say I view this from an ASEAN perspective and generally, ASEAN is the final stop after a comprehensive strategy dealing with other parts of Asia is finalized.

There is also much less US involvement in multilateral institutions. This is important given the nature of the problems the world faces today. I also think the State Department itself has less access and the whole US establishment which has guided foreign policy and economic engagement, has been weakened.

At the same time other countries – and China in particular – have upped their game. They engage us, not only at the top level – but very thoroughly on an ongoing basis.  Ambassadors of these countries, whether you agree with them or not, are out all the time engaging people, and are much more present. The US is still here but less than in the past. Take something as simple as Ambassadors. How many ASEAN countries have sitting US Ambassadors? And if you talk with the ones that are here, how much access do they have into Washington and White House decision-making at a high level? Stove-piping is always a problem in big countries, but it is now becoming a more serious issue.

Since the early days of ASEAN, China has developed rapidly and has now become the world’s second-largest economy. It is also a major driver of economic growth and seeks greater regional and global influence through vehicles such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), at a time when the US is backing away from multilateral institutions and its traditional role as a global leader on a range of important issues. As tensions rise between China and the US, both in terms of trade as well as influence and security, how is the region affected, and what are the challenges ASEAN countries face in navigating this changing environment?

The pandemic makes a vast difference. We are trying to figure out in a post-pandemic world whether China or the US will recover faster and at the moment the answer seems to be China. It is still early, however, and of course, there is now an outbreak in Beijing so we will have to see. At the same time within China, there seems to be a growing understanding they need to remain engaged with the outside world. They also did not have this pre-pandemic spirit of isolationism and questioning of whether it is good for China to export and invest abroad. So unlike the US, they did not come into this with a globalization backlash, strengthened further by the pandemic.

Singapore recently entered into a “green lane” agreement with China for business travel and Singapore-based businesses of all nationalities can now travel to six cities and regions of China with minimal testing as a first step toward reopening our borders. This is not political but an effort to restore supply chain links and our ability to operate as a hub while maintaining decent safety levels. We are also trying to open Australia and New Zealand, and other countries in ASEAN, but those discussions are not yet concluded.

Also, if you look back to the global financial crisis of 2008, it is notable that Asia and China kept growing. While the US did not shrink, in relative terms its global market share declined. That caused an adjustment similar to when an elevator goes up and suddenly stops. I feel if the US does not respond correctly to the current situation, we may experience another of those adjustments; it doesn’t mean the US will fade and fall down the elevator shaft, but there will be another jerky moment and perceptions in this part of the world will shift further as they did after the onset of the global financial crisis.

That said, people in ASEAN want more US involvement and encourage US investment and more participation by US firms. We think of the market and technology as rational and neutral, but it is beginning to get colored. Meaning if people think the winner will be China there is a tendency to go more in that direction – even though we are still fighting to keep things as neutral, rational, and as inclusive as possible. You can see that in the struggle over the decision this week to award Singapore’s 5G network to Ericsson and Nokia, though it still maintained a smaller role for Huawei.

In the past, there was a belief in the west that China’s development would lead it toward a more democratic form of government and integration within the global trading system that arose following the Second World War. In recent years it has become apparent this is not the case and China is embarking on its own path. This has led to growing concerns about China’s aspirations and efforts to exert global leadership and establish standards in new technologies as seen its “Made in China 2025 initiative”, its policy toward Hong Kong and Taiwan, cybersecurity and privacy, social credit scoring and other policies, practices, and beliefs. Do you share these concerns? How does China’s model translate to ASEAN and do you see a new “Cold War” developing in which countries will be asked to choose sides?

I have studied, lived in, and like the US, but never assumed China would become more democratic. I believe the Party will have to evolve and change in response to China’s development but never assumed this would necessarily be in a democratic direction. When I look at the region beyond China, I would also say most in Asia are not a democracy in the US-style. Even look at Japan, which you Keith know well. It is not a one-party system like China but it is not a US-style democracy. Neither is Singapore. We will have an election here in less than two weeks, yet there is almost no doubt which party will win. So I am not sure you as an American would describe such systems as democracy.

So I do not look at China through an ideological lens of democracy and have always thought China would do what made sense for China. As neighbors, we do have to figure out whether what is good for China will be a threat to us, rather than win-win. This applies when we look at Chinese investment; we tend to look at it through pragmatic calculations. I do not begin with the assumption that it is an attempt to politically suborn every place where they invest. There are of course risks that remain but they can be managed. For example, with BRI we have talked to Myanmar and others about the risks of unproven projects that burden them with high debt. That is Singapore’s style. We initiate projects incrementally. We start with one terminal and gradually expand to five, or one chemical factory into a large complex as demand is proven. We have an idea of where we want to go – but build incrementally rather than start with grand projects.

That is why you now see a number of Singapore industrial parks in Vietnam. These parks are not just physical spaces. Some provide training, education, and skills development for local workers so they can better serve companies based there. This helps our neighbors while developing our role as a hub. Singapore companies are also involved in BRI. For example, Surbana Jurong provides consultancy services to some Chinese investors in ASEAN countries, as well as acting for the hosts on other occasions. The Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) is also pushing out into the region and beyond; recently opening a joint port in Greece with Cosco, a Chinese shipping line. So Singaporean efforts are to seek cooperation and commercial deals that look non-ideologically to support globalization and free trade around the world.

The bigger question is the “new Cold War” between the USA and China. We do feel it. We try to make rational decisions based on market principles but increasingly everything is reduced to whether “you are for or against China or the US.” For the AIIB, Singapore participated from the start because infrastructure is a big issue in the region. We are in the Asian Development Bank (ADB) too and the World Bank. We think there is no reason we can’t be in more than one, and I do not see why the US objected to the AIIB or what was the alternative they were offering. On the other hand, when American’s spoke about the Indo-Pacific we were happy to work with our ASEAN colleagues to develop an ASEAN understanding and response.

The view of the Indo-Pacific that ASEAN has developed is slightly different than the US, as our goal was to make it more inclusive and not just for democracies. But we do agree a larger framework for the region is necessary. For Singapore, as close friends with India, we have no problems working with them as well and continue to hope they will become more and more integrated with the region.

Even before the coronavirus and heightened US-China trade tensions, corporations were beginning to reevaluate global supply chains to lessen their reliance on Chinese production. Many view ASEAN as a natural beneficiary, offering cost and diversification benefits. As a result, we see many clients giving the region more consideration given its strategic location, strong infrastructure and its ability to bridge operations that had been based in China and still rely on inputs from there. How do you view ASEAN’s potential as the region rises in importance as a hub within the global supply chain? What are the prospects for developing and more developed countries in ASEAN– as well as integration between the two, for example, the relationship between Singapore and Batam/Bintan and the Riau Islands, where we have been active for many years, located in Indonesia only 12 miles away?

Our greatest fear is not a splintering of global supply chains but rather the idea of bringing everything back home in response to growing nationalism. Big countries sometimes think they can do that – whether it is the US, China, India, or even Indonesia. They believe they can produce everything for themselves and capture their own market. We used to see this in the “import substitution” and “beggar thy neighbor” days. That is something we need to work together to avoid. Post-pandemic there will be exceptions and a degree of self-supply is important, for example with masks and ventilators, to prevent a cut-off of supply. Similarly, markets such as Singapore which imports almost 100% of its food supply, need to rethink being completely reliant on offshore sourcing. But we need to make sure that tilt does not go too far.

But I would emphasize we are not going to exclude China either. The interesting question is whether we still believe in global supply chains. I think the answer is that we do, provided that security and other key concerns can still be addressed. If that is the case, countries that can provide that, who can reliably manage increasing supply chain complexity with good governance and rule of law, with an ability to deliver will be rewarded. ASEAN and Singapore are well-positioned in that regard.

The larger danger is that countries retreat back completely to a reliance on national production and protectionism. It is a lesser danger for supply chains to split into two, one being the US and the other a Chinese supply chain. Sometimes it is important for other countries to have guts and stand up against that and bullying from either side. This is especially important during the pandemic when some powerful countries were trying to grab masks and other medical supplies for themselves when these had been contracted to others. For Singapore, and for me as an attorney and international lawyer, I emphasize the importance of fulfilling contracts. This does not always work to our advantage in Singapore. Sometimes in the pandemic, neighbors cut off supply but we still try our best to observe our commitments. The rule of law is important. The bottom line is – trust is something you can’t ditch in a crisis.

You ask about Batam and Bintan as part of our strategy to expand across the region. These islands are part of Indonesia but stand just a small distance from Singapore. Back in the early 1990s, there was a lot of excitement in Singapore about their development as an early step in regionalization and cross border cooperation. They are still significant; proximity still matters, but not quite as much as before. Other opportunities arise, and regionalization has deepened. One newer aspect is whether that proximity is connected to another market.

For example, a major Singaporean company now has an industrial park operating in central Java that caters to Indonesia, rather than offshore markets like Batam and Bintan. Singapore also has more than seven industrial parks in Vietnam – and we do more there than in these Indonesian islands nearest us. Why? It is not because we do not like Batam and Bintan; they also have a role to play. But they do not enjoy any special preferences or contiguous market, have no natural workforce so workers there are imported from other parts of Indonesia. In the end, they remain useful, allow easy commuting, but do not provide a definitive advantage in an environment characterized by deeper and more complex regional integration.

ASEAN has been severely affected by the coronavirus – and by most measures handled the pandemic relatively well. Can you talk about how the virus has been handled in Singapore and other countries in ASEAN, the nature of regional cooperation, and how the pandemic is likely to affect economic and other aspects of integration moving forward? What lessons should the US take from the ASEAN experience dealing with the virus?

There are differences in how ASEAN countries have handled this and from what we can see, Vietnam has come out on top in terms of controlling the pandemic. In Singapore, the overall national numbers may look scary, but it is under control for most of the community though the problem is acute within the foreign work dormitories which account for the bulk of numbers.

Singapore has a strong health system and has ramped up testing and treatment facilities; our medical system has coped and there has been a very low mortality rate. Malaysia and Thailand are also doing relatively well. For Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar the numbers seem ok but it is really hard to know for sure, given low levels of testing. In Southeast Asia, I think the biggest worry is Indonesia where numbers are beginning to rise while the country faces strong economic pressure to reopen.

A key question is transparency. The more you test the more you find cases. So we look at testing rates as an indicator. In Singapore, we have good testing for a small population. As testing increased in dorms for migrant workers, this caused our numbers to really jump. It was just last week that Indonesia overtook us as having the most cases – and we have to ask why did it take that long? Basically, many countries are not testing enough. When they do test, it is for confirmed cases and not more generally – and the number of tests per million is very low. So from the reported numbers, the situation may look acceptable, but no one can be quite sure.

The current question is how to ease up the restrictions to restart the economy and allow travel across borders. There are worries about importing cases and all countries have at least temporarily closed off tourism, which are important parts of their economies. In the pipeline, I think green lanes for business are possible. But there will continue to be concerns about large numbers of tourists unless easy and reliable testing and (ideally) vaccines are ready. So we will have to figure out how to manage borders – allowing transport of workers as well as goods and services – to restart our economies and manage our integration and supply chains in an increasingly interdependent region.

One of the things we have learned is we have to be open to help from outside and cooperation is critical. In early February we first had a China-ASEAN meeting on how to deal with the virus and it was just China, but then we had an ASEAN Summit and this was notable in bringing in Japan and Korea – two countries that have the industry and technology needed to help. Now some of us are advocating Australia and New Zealand also need to be added as well. If we address the pandemic together – we have a much better chance of containing and dealing with it. Harmonizing our approaches to treatment and travel is important. Multilateral dialogue and cooperation are essential and world leaders should encourage talk rather than just closing borders.

India also represents a major economy that borders ASEAN and has traditionally had a major impact though often gets overlooked given the attention paid to China. What is your view on India as a regional and global player and how important is its economy to the development of ASEAN and how should companies be approaching this important market? Additionally, any thoughts on current tensions between India and China?

Last year before the pandemic we had the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) discussions which could potentially not only open up India but bring India more into the region as a major global manufacturer and supplier – much as China embarked on that path decades ago. RCEP’s importance rose after the US withdrew from TPP negotiations, and aimed to bring together all ASEAN members and our key trading partners — including India, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. But it seems the Indians didn’t like that vision or thought the costs of opening up their market were too high and walked away.

They thought they could scupper the whole initiative, but ASEAN has decided to go ahead without them. That was not our hope and it would have been much better to include them, but we were not going to let India veto RCEP, and it will now proceed, aiming to conclude by the end of 2020. I always tell my Indian friends we have to move – particularly now with the pandemic – and they would be advised to jump on board.

India has tremendous potential and their size and promise will always be there – but it is a bit like a giant universe operating by itself – cut off from the outside. That is sad as there are some really top-class Indian companies that can more than compete in the region. But India as a whole has not really been fully engaged. The politics are complicated – and while Singapore remains great friends of India – it remains to be seen if a path forward can be found. If Prime Minister Modi with all the support he enjoys is not willing to open up, how and when will it happen? Compound that with the pandemic and a lack of desire to integrate, and my fear is India will miss the boat.

For Indonesia, the largest country in ASEAN, it’s different. They know investors are questioning reliance on China because of costs and Sino-American conflict and are working to catch the attention to join global chains and attract more investment to create more and better paying industrial jobs. They are trying but it won’t be easy. China has retained many supply chains, and many that moved decided to go to Vietnam.  One Indonesian minister I know quite well is working hard to attract jobs and promote innovation and some companies are moving to base there. The minister told me his scorecard is based on an ability to attract foreign investors and industry. It will be difficult, but it is good they are trying. India, however, has mostly been sitting on the sidelines and it may only get harder over time.

Singapore is one of the world’s great success stories and has become a preferred destination to establish businesses and operate for companies in a wide range of sectors, including as a world financial center. For many years we operated our own company there as a base for activities in Myanmar, Indonesia and other ASEAN markets which lacked the same level of infrastructure, governance and services. Does the Singapore model hold, and what changes need to be made, as neighboring countries develop? Can you tell us about current Singapore initiatives, the upcoming election and the “bubbles” that are being created for business, travel and trade?

Singapore understands we serve as a hub for the region and if we cut ourselves off due to the pandemic and health reasons, we will find ourselves in a bubble that does not have enough air for all of us. You can live your life that way if you need to, but resources become scarce and it will not be much of a life. So we have to reopen, and all small economies face similar issues. New Zealand for example is further away but faces similar decisions.

That is why we talk about green lanes and bubbles. We need to start but in a controlled way with trusted partners. In the past, we were wide open. When you entered Changi Airport, even before you got to the doors, they opened wide. There was seldom a line and often no one even checked your luggage. Now, while I have not been there in five months, I imagine the scanners are working overtime. You need to show a health certificate and the process is much more cautious and guarded.

My analogy is that we have gone from an automatic door and seamless travel to a situation that requires a special pass and perhaps a key before you will be able to pass. Safety concerns are a priority. But for Singapore, the important thing is the doors need to remain open even if there are more checks and verifications to ensure adequate safety and easy passage. Singapore is committed to that. The government just formed a new public-private partnership called the “Emerging Stronger Task Force”. This will gather ideas on how to develop new processes and procedures to get better ideas on Singapore’s economic strengths, and how to move forward into the “new normal” in the wake of the pandemic.

It won’t be easy. But when I look back, there is reason to believe we can rise to the challenges. Singapore came out stronger from the Asian financial crisis and we are determined to do that again. That was true after the global financial crisis as well. If we get it right, Singapore can come out stronger this time as well. Of course, we could get it wrong and have made mistakes along the way;  two recoveries do not automatically translate into a third so we have to be careful not to have hubris and to work hard and innovate to succeed.

As you know we have been active and involved with Myanmar’s development for many decades, and one of the more interesting developments – at least in terms of Singapore – are long term plans to develop deep seaports in Kyauphyu, which would provide a land route into China. This initiative would allow shippers to bypass the Straits of Malacca and the Port of Singapore which has long dominated trade in the region. How do you view Myanmar’s prospects and the potential of these projects?

Do we see other ports in the region as a direct threat to Singapore? The answer is no. We think win-win. Our ports are busy and before the pandemic operated almost at full capacity. If Asia continues to grow, the volume of traffic will grow even more. The PSA has been expanding internationally to places in the region and beyond. Moreover, within Singapore land is very valuable and there is a plan to create a new mega port named Tuas in the north of the island. The current site of one port is very close to the city and is such valuable land that, rather than stacking containers, far more value can be realized if it is used for real estate and infrastructure development. So while we do want Singapore to continue as a major port, this means that we welcome and want to participate in growth across the region.

As for Myanmar more generally, we are very encouraged and remain positive. We would love to see them come up like Vietnam. As mentioned, there are several Singaporean industrial parks there and while there are none are as yet in Myanmar – we have very good relationships there and see lots of potential. Many people from Myanmar received their education and training in Singapore and many Myanmar companies rely on Singapore for banking, legal and financial services. So there are extensive people-people relationships and we want to help and be part of their development. Also, two of the most active banks in Myanmar, UOB and OCBC are from Singapore and as Myanmar opens up and liberalizes they are seeking to increase their presence.

Thank you Simon for your time and attention. Look forward to speaking again soon!

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Keith Rabin serves as President at KWR International, Inc., a global consulting firm specializing in international market entry; trade, business, investment and economic development; site location, as well as research and public relations/ public affairs services for a wide range of corporate and government clients.

asia

Granite, Sandstone And Building Stone Market in Asia – Key Insights

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Granite, Sandstone And Other Building Stone – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Exports in Asia

In 2018, approx. 9.7M tonnes of granite, sandstone and other building stone were exported in Asia; going up by 3.8% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2013 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. In that year, exports of granite, sandstone and other building stone reached their peak of 10M tonnes. From 2015 to 2018, the growth of exports of granite, sandstone and other building stone failed to regain its momentum.

In value terms, exports of granite, sandstone and other building stone stood at $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

India was the largest exporter of granite, sandstone and other building stone exported in Asia, with the volume of exports finishing at 6.9M tonnes, which was near 71% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Indonesia (1.6M tonnes) and China (0.7M tonnes), together creating a 24% share of total exports.

India was also the fastest-growing in terms of the granite, sandstone and other building stone exports, with a CAGR of +9.1% from 2013 to 2018. Indonesia (-6.4%) and China (-10.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+25 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2013-2018, the share of China (-5.8 p.p.) and Indonesia (-6.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, India ($1.1B) remains the largest granite, sandstone and other building stone supplier in Asia, comprising 85% of total exports of granite, sandstone and other building stone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($107M), with a 8.3% share of total exports.

Imports in Asia

In 2018, approx. 9.6M tonnes of granite, sandstone and other building stone were imported in Asia; growing by 13% against the previous year.

In value terms, imports of granite, sandstone and other building stone totaled $1.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, imports of granite, sandstone and other building stone continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 8.8% y-o-y. Over the period under review, imports of granite, sandstone and other building stone attained their maximum at $1.6B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

China dominates imports of granite, sandstone and other building stone structure, reaching 7.7M tonnes, which was approx. 80% of total imports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Taiwan, Chinese (764K tonnes), committing an 8% share of total imports. The following importers – Bangladesh (405K tonnes) and Maldives (160K tonnes) – together made up 5.9% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to granite, sandstone and other building stone imports into China stood at +4.2%. At the same time, Bangladesh (+50.4%) and Maldives (+33.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Bangladesh emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Asia, with a CAGR of +50.4% from 2013-2018. Taiwan, Chinese experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. China (+15 p.p.) and Bangladesh (+3.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($1.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported granite, sandstone and other building stone in Asia, comprising 82% of total imports of granite, sandstone and other building stone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Taiwan, Chinese ($90M), with a 6.2% share of total imports. It was followed by Bangladesh, with a 1.9% share.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

grapefruit

Grapefruit Market in Asia – Japan Halved Grapefruit Imports Over the Last Decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Grapefruits (Inc. Pomelos) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the grapefruit market in Asia amounted to $6.4B in 2018, picking up by 6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, grapefruit consumption continues to indicate strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when the market value increased by 18% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the grapefruit market reached its maximum level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in Asia

China (4.8M tonnes) remains the largest grapefruit consuming country in Asia, comprising approx. 72% of total consumption. Moreover, grapefruit consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the region’s second-largest consumer, Viet Nam (611K tonnes), eightfold. India (377K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.6% share.

In China, grapefruit consumption increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Viet Nam (+5.5% per year) and India (+7.1% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Viet Nam ($707M). It was followed by Thailand.

The countries with the highest levels of grapefruit per capita consumption in 2018 were Viet Nam (6,331 kg per 1000 persons), China (3,340 kg per 1000 persons) and Thailand (3,267 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of grapefruit per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by China, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025 in Asia

Driven by increasing demand for grapefruit in Asia, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.7M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production in Asia

The grapefruit production stood at 7M tonnes in 2018, growing by 6.4% against the previous year. The total output indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, grapefruit production increased by +81.9% against 2007 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when production volume increased by 12% y-o-y. Over the period under review, grapefruit production reached its maximum volume in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term. The general positive trend in terms of grapefruit output was largely conditioned by a resilient increase of the harvested area and temperate growth in yield figures.

In value terms, grapefruit production stood at $6.9B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, grapefruit production continues to indicate a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when production volume increased by 18% against the previous year. The level of grapefruit production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country in Asia

The country with the largest volume of grapefruit production was China (5M tonnes), accounting for 71% of total production. Moreover, grapefruit production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the region’s second-largest producer, Viet Nam (598K tonnes), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by India (377K tonnes), with a 5.4% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +7.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Viet Nam (+5.3% per year) and India (+7.1% per year).

Harvested Area in Asia

In 2018, the total area harvested in terms of grapefruits production in Asia stood at 220K ha, going up by 3.7% against the previous year. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 18% year-to-year. The level of grapefruit harvested area peaked at 226K ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2018, harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Yield in Asia

The average grapefruit yield amounted to 32 tonne per ha in 2018, jumping by 2.6% against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when yield increased by 9.6% against the previous year. The level of grapefruit yield peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Exports in Asia

In 2018, the amount of grapefruits exported in Asia amounted to 525K tonnes, jumping by 21% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the period from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2008 when exports increased by 23% year-to-year. Over the period under review, grapefruit exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, grapefruit exports totaled $449M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated a strong expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, grapefruit exports increased by +15.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 21% y-o-y. Over the period under review, grapefruit exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

In 2018, China (211K tonnes) and Turkey (182K tonnes) were the major exporters of grapefruits in Asia, together recording near 75% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Israel (88K tonnes), achieving a 17% share of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR (16K tonnes) and Cyprus (8.3K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by China, Hong Kong SAR, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest grapefruit markets in Asia were China ($200M), Turkey ($119M) and Israel ($87M), with a combined 91% share of total exports. These countries were followed by China, Hong Kong SAR and Cyprus, which together accounted for a further 4%.

Among the main exporting countries, China, Hong Kong SAR recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven years, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The grapefruit export price in Asia stood at $855 per tonne in 2018, waning by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the last eleven years, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the export price increased by 10% y-o-y. In that year, the export prices for grapefruits attained their peak level of $888 per tonne, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Israel ($995 per tonne), while Cyprus ($585 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, Hong Kong SAR, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia

In 2018, the amount of grapefruits imported in Asia totaled 272K tonnes, surging by 24% against the previous year. In general, grapefruit imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 24% y-o-y. Over the period under review, grapefruit imports reached their maximum at 280K tonnes in 2010; however, from 2011 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum.

In value terms, grapefruit imports amounted to $232M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Over the period under review, grapefruit imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 15% y-o-y. The level of imports peaked at $236M in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Japan (85K tonnes), distantly followed by China (45K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (34K tonnes), South Korea (23K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (23K tonnes) and Viet Nam (15K tonnes) were the largest importers of grapefruits, together comprising 83% of total imports. Iraq (11K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Viet Nam (+115.4% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($64M), China ($60M) and South Korea ($32M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 67% share of total imports. China, Hong Kong SAR, Saudi Arabia, Viet Nam and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 21%.

Viet Nam (+99.6% per year) experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The grapefruit import price in Asia stood at $853 per tonne in 2018, dropping by -8.6% against the previous year. Overall, the grapefruit import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the import price increased by 12% against the previous year. In that year, the import prices for grapefruits reached their peak level of $933 per tonne, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was South Korea ($1,420 per tonne), while Iraq ($323 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Asia’s Fish Fillet Market – China’s Export Share Exceeded 50%

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Frozen Fish Fillet – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the frozen fish fillet market in Asia amounted to $3.9B in 2017, growing by 4.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

The growth pace was the most rapid in 2009, when the market value increased by 35% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the frozen fish fillet market attained its peak figure level at $4.6B in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2017, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Production in Asia

In 2017, production of frozen fish fillet in Asia amounted to 1.9M tonnes, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Exports in Asia

The exports totaled 1.7M tonnes in 2017, flattening at the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

In value terms, frozen fish fillet exports amounted to $7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2017.

Exports by Country

China was the main exporting country with an export of around 901K tonnes, which accounted for 53% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Vietnam (597K tonnes), constituting 35% share of total exports. The following exporters – Indonesia (43K tonnes) and Thailand (27K tonnes) – together made up 4.2% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Vietnam, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($4B) remains the largest frozen fish fillet supplier in Asia, comprising 57% of total frozen fish fillet exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Vietnam ($1.6B), with a 23% share of total exports. It was followed by Indonesia, with a 3.8% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2017, the frozen fish fillet export price in Asia amounted to $4,130 per tonne, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008, an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices for frozen fish fillet attained their maximum at $4,486 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2017, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Thailand ($7,128 per tonne), while Vietnam ($2,629 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Thailand, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia

In 2017, imports of frozen fish fillet in Asia totaled 864K tonnes, picking up by 4.2% against the previous year. The total imports indicated a strong growth from 2007 to 2017: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2017 figures, the frozen fish fillet imports increased by +93.6% against 2007 indices.

In value terms, frozen fish fillet imports amounted to $3.5B (IndexBox estimates) in 2017.

Imports by Country

Japan dominates frozen fish fillet imports structure, amounting to 524K tonnes, which was approx. 61% of total imports in 2017. It was distantly followed by China (56K tonnes), comprising 6.4% share of total imports. Israel (39K tonnes), South Korea (38K tonnes), the Philippines (26K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (25K tonnes), Singapore (21K tonnes), Malaysia (19K tonnes), Iran (14K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (14K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (14K tonnes) and Vietnam (14K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2017, average annual rates of growth with regard to frozen fish fillet imports into Japan stood at +5.8%. At the same time, the Philippines (+60.0%), Taiwan, Chinese (+24.6%), Vietnam (+21.3%), China (+20.3%), Singapore (+18.5%), Iran (+18.0%), Malaysia (+15.3%), Saudi Arabia (+10.8%), China, Hong Kong SAR (+1.4%), Israel (+1.2%) and South Korea (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest growing importer in Asia, with a CAGR of +60.0% from 2007-2017. Malaysia (-1.6%), Singapore (-2%), the Philippines (-3%), China (-5.4%) and Japan (-26.2%) significantly weakened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($2.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported frozen fish fillet in Asia, comprising 61% of total frozen fish fillet imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by South Korea ($233M), with a 6.7% share of total imports. It was followed by Israel, with a 6.1% share.

Import Prices by Country

In 2017, the frozen fish fillet import price in Asia amounted to $3,996 per tonne, surging by 8.9% against the previous year. Overall, the frozen fish fillet import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2017, the country with the highest import price was Taiwan, Chinese ($6,346 per tonne), while the Philippines ($1,515 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Saudi Arabia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

Asia’s Apple Market: China Dominates Exports Despite a Slight Contraction

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Apple – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the apple market size in Asia amounted to $62.1B (in wholesale price). The total market indicated a strong increase from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the apple consumption increased by +16.7% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014, when the market value increased by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the apple market reached its maximum level in 2018, and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Production in Asia

In 2018, the amount of apples produced in Asia amounted to 56M tonnes, going up by 3.5% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011, when the output figure increased by 9% y-o-y. The volume of apple production peaked in 2018, and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

The general positive trend in terms of apple output was largely conditioned by a noticeable expansion of the harvested area and a modest growth in yield figures.

Exports in Asia

In 2018, approx. 1.3M tonnes of apples were exported in Asia; lowering by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, apple exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013, when exports increased by 26% y-o-y. In that year, apple exports attained their peak of 1.7M tonnes. From 2014 to 2018, the growth of apple exports failed to regain its momentum.

In value terms, apple exports amounted to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2008 to 2018; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016, when exports increased by 21% year-to-year. In that year, apple exports attained their peak of $1.4B. From 2017 to 2018, the growth of apple exports failed to regain its momentum.

Exports by Country

China dominates apple exports structure, accounting for 701K tonnes, which was near 55% of total exports in 2018. Turkey (108K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 8.5% share, followed by Iran (8.5%) and Azerbaijan (7.1%). China, Hong Kong SAR (39K tonnes), Afghanistan (38K tonnes), Lebanon (37K tonnes), Japan (34K tonnes), Syrian Arab Republic (20K tonnes) and Israel (20K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2008 to 2018, average annual rates of growth with regard to apple exports from China stood at -3.3%. At the same time, Turkey (+25.7%), Afghanistan (+16.6%), Iran (+8.7%), Israel (+6.7%) and China, Hong Kong SAR (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Turkey emerged as the fastest growing exporter in Asia, with a CAGR of +25.7% from 2008-2018. Japan and Lebanon experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Azerbaijan (-3.0%) and Syrian Arab Republic (-4.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (22%) and Azerbaijan (2.6%) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2008-2018, the share of Afghanistan (-2.3%), Iran (-4.8%) and Turkey (-7.6%) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($845M) remains the largest apple supplier in Asia, comprising 67% of total apple exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Turkey ($79M), with a 6.2% share of total exports. It was followed by Iran, with a 5.1% share.

Export Prices by Country

The apple export price in Asia stood at $1,001 per tonne in 2018, going up by 10% against the previous year. The export price indicated a remarkable growth from 2008 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the apple export price increased by +37.4% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014, when the export price increased by 22% year-to-year. The level of export price peaked in 2018, and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Export prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest export price was Israel ($1,530 per tonne), while Azerbaijan ($423 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Afghanistan, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia

In 2018, apple imports in Asia totaled 2.4M tonnes, lowering by -17.3% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2008 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015, when imports increased by 14% y-o-y. The volume of imports peaked at 2.9M tonnes in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, apple imports amounted to $2.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a prominent expansion from 2008 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010, with an increase of 18% year-to-year. The level of imports peaked at $2.7B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2018, India (267K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (180K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (167K tonnes), Indonesia (163K tonnes), Saudi Arabia (150K tonnes), Thailand (142K tonnes), the Philippines (134K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (107K tonnes), Viet Nam (106K tonnes), Kazakhstan (101K tonnes), Iraq (99K tonnes) and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (94K tonnes) were the largest importers of apples in Asia, achieving 71% of total import.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth. In value terms, India ($264M), Taiwan, Chinese ($245M) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($198M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 31% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Viet Nam, Kazakhstan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and Iraq, which together accounted for a further 43%.

Import Prices by Country

The apple import price in Asia stood at $965 per tonne in 2018, growing by 3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2008 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was Taiwan, Chinese ($1,362 per tonne), while Iraq ($194 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2008 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

leek

Leek Market in Asia – Supply and Demand

IndexBox has just published a new report, the Asia – Leeks And Other Alliaceous Vegetables – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the leek market in Asia amounted to $1.1B in 2017, going down by -16% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period.

The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016, when the market value increased by 20% y-o-y. The level of leek consumption peaked at $1.3B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2017, consumption failed to regain its momentum.

Production in Asia

In 2017, the amount of leeks and other alliaceous vegetables produced in Asia totaled 1.2M tonnes, falling by -3.1% against the previous year. The leek production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Leek Exports

Exports in Asia

In 2017, exports of leeks and other alliaceous vegetables in Asia amounted to 75K tonnes, surging by 17% against the previous year. The leek exports continue to indicate a modest increase.

In value terms, leek exports amounted to $70M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017.

Exports by Country

China dominates leek exports structure, recording 62K tonnes, which was approx. 82% of total exports in 2017. It was distantly followed by Turkey (5.1K tonnes), achieving 6.8% share of total exports. Malaysia (2.8K tonnes) and Pakistan (2.4K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2017, average annual rates of growth with regard to leek exports from China stood at +2.3%. At the same time, Pakistan (+65.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest growing exporter in Asia, with a CAGR of +65.4% from 2007-2017. By contrast, Turkey (-1.5%) and Malaysia (-5.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2017, the share of Malaysia increased by 2.9% percentage points, while Pakistan (-3.1%) and China (-16.5%) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($54M) remains the largest leek supplier in Asia, comprising 78% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Turkey ($3.2M), with a 4.6% share of global exports. It was followed by Malaysia, with a 3.3% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2017, the leek export price in Asia amounted to $925 per tonne, reducing by -17.3% against the previous year. The the leek export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2017, the country with the highest export price was China ($882 per tonne), while Pakistan ($395 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by Malaysia (+3.8% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Leek Imports
Imports in Asia

In 2017, imports of leeks and other alliaceous vegetables in Asia amounted to 92K tonnes, picking up by 13% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2007 to 2017; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. In value terms, leek imports stood at $104M (IndexBox estimates) in 2017.

Imports by Country

Japan dominates leek imports structure, recording 63K tonnes, which was approx. 69% of total imports in 2017. South Korea (8.4K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the global imports with a 9.2% share, followed by Malaysia (6.2%). The following importers – Singapore (3.8K tonnes), China, Macao SAR (2.6K tonnes), Afghanistan (1.9K tonnes) and Vietnam (1.5K tonnes) together made up 11% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2017, average annual rates of growth with regard to leek imports into Japan stood at +1.3%. At the same time, Vietnam (+86.2%), Afghanistan (+79.8%), China, Macao SAR (+13.8%), South Korea (+13.0%) and Malaysia (+4.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest growing importer in Asia, with a CAGR of +86.2% from 2007-2017. By contrast, Singapore (-2.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Vietnam (-1.6%), Malaysia (-2%), China, Macao SAR (-2%), Afghanistan (-2.1%), South Korea (-6.5%) and Japan (-8.6%) significantly weakened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Japan ($79M) constitutes the largest market for imported leeks and other alliaceous vegetables in Asia, comprising 76% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Singapore ($6.4M), with a 6.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Malaysia, with a 5.2% share.

Import Prices by Country

The leek import price in Asia stood at $1.1 per kg in 2017, reducing by -14.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2017, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%.

There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2017, the country with the highest import price was Singapore ($1.7 per kg), while Afghanistan ($399 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Singapore (+7.2% per year), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform