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South Asia’s Growth Resilience Faces Structural Challenges

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Global Trade Daily, International Trade, News

South Asia’s Growth Resilience Faces Structural Challenges

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South Asia is poised for robust growth in 2024, with a projected GDP growth of 6.0%, primarily driven by India’s strong performance and recoveries in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, despite this positive outlook, persistent structural challenges threaten to impede sustained growth and hinder the region’s ability to create jobs and respond to climate shocks, as highlighted in the World Bank’s latest South Asia Development Update.

While South Asia is expected to maintain its status as the fastest-growing region globally for the next two years, the report warns that the current growth trajectory is deceptive. Most countries are still below pre-pandemic growth levels, relying heavily on public spending to fuel economic expansion. Private investment growth has notably slowed across all South Asian nations, exacerbating the challenge of job creation amidst a rapidly expanding working-age population.

Read also: Navigating Economic Dynamics: East Asia and Pacific Region’s Growth Prospects

Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia, cautions that fiscal vulnerabilities and escalating climate shocks loom as potential threats to the region’s growth trajectory. To fortify resilience, he emphasizes the necessity of implementing policies to stimulate private investment and foster employment growth.

South Asia’s demographic dividend presents both opportunities and challenges. Despite a surge in the working-age population, employment growth has lagged behind, resulting in a declining employment ratio compared to other emerging market regions. Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia, emphasizes that fully harnessing this demographic dividend is imperative for the region’s economic advancement, with the potential for output to increase significantly if employment levels mirror those of comparable economies.

The report underscores the urgency of addressing weak employment trends, particularly in non-agricultural sectors, through policy interventions aimed at enhancing firm growth and facilitating job creation. Recommendations include measures to enhance trade openness, improve access to finance, strengthen business climates, and promote women’s economic participation, which collectively can boost growth, productivity, and resilience.

In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of South Asia’s economic landscape, the report offers country-specific outlooks. Bangladesh faces challenges posed by high inflation and trade restrictions, while Bhutan anticipates growth supported by electricity production and tourism. India’s economy is expected to maintain robust growth, while Maldives adjusts to shifting tourism dynamics. Nepal foresees growth driven by hydropower exports, and Pakistan anticipates economic recovery as business confidence improves. Sri Lanka expects modest growth supported by improvements in reserves, remittances, and tourism.

In conclusion, while South Asia’s growth prospects are promising, addressing structural challenges is essential to ensuring inclusive and sustainable development in the region.

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Robust China’s Demand Drives ABS Plastic Exports from South Korea

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Republic of Korea – Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene (ABS) Copolymers In Primary Forms – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

South Korea remains the world’s largest supplier of primary ABS copolymers, accounting for 46% of global exports. Robust demand from China propels the growth of South Korea’s shipments. In the first seven months of 2021, the export value increased by +60% against the same period of 2020. Last year, ABS copolymer exports from Korea reached $2.1B. China, Hong Kong SAR and Turkey constitute the leading importers of Korean ABS plastics. In 2020, the average ABS copolymer export price country’s amounted to $1,521 per tonne, down by -7.9% against the previous year.

South Korea’s ABS Copolymer Exports by Country

South Korea is the world’s largest supplier of primary ABS copolymers, accounting for 46% of global exports. In the first seven months of 2021, South Korea exported 759K tonnes of primary ABS copolymers worth $1.76B, a 60%-increase in value terms against the same period of 2020.

In 2020, ABS copolymer exports from South Korea declined to 1.3M tonnes, approximately mirroring 2019 figures. In value terms, ABS copolymer exports dropped from $2.2B in 2019 to $2.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020.

China (499K tonnes) was the leading destination for ABS copolymer exports from South Korea, accounting for 37% of total exports. Moreover, ABS copolymer exports to China exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Hong Kong SAR (120K tonnes), fourfold. Turkey (80K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 6% share. In value terms, China ($725M) remains the key foreign market for ABS copolymer exports from South Korea, comprising 35% of total exports. Hong Kong SAR ($178M) occupied the second position in the ranking, with an 8.7% share of total exports. It was followed by Turkey, with a 5.9% share.

In 2020, the average annual growth rate of exports value sent to China totalled +5.2%. Exports to the other significant destinations recorded the following average annual rates of export growth: Hong Kong SAR (-20.4% per year) and Turkey (+3.2% per year).

In 2020, the average ABS copolymer export price amounted to $1,521 per tonne, falling by -7.9% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the countries with the highest prices were Mexico ($1,721 per tonne) and the U.S. ($1,663 per tonne), while the average price for exports to China ($1,452 per tonne) and Malaysia ($1,460 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Hong Kong SAR, while the prices for the other significant destinations declined.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

The Asian-Pacific Coal Market Grows Markedly for the Third Consecutive Year

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Coal – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2019, the Asia-Pacific coal market increased by 6.1% to $751.8B, rising for the third consecutive year after four years of decline. The total market indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2019: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption by Country

China (4,136M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal consumption, accounting for 69% of total volume. Moreover, coal consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (1,012M tonnes), fourfold. Japan (186M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 3.1% share.

From 2007 to 2019, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +3.7%. In India, the average annual rate of growth amounted to +5.2% per year, while in and Japan, the volume of consumption remained relatively unchanged against its outset level.

In value terms, China ($572.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($90.7B). It was followed by Japan.

The countries with the highest levels of coal per capita consumption in 2019 were Australia (4.85 tonne per person), China (2.84 tonne per person) and South Korea (2.78 tonne per person).

From 2007 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Indonesia, while coal per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, production of coal increased by 3% to 5,771M tonnes, rising for the third consecutive year after three years of decline. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2010 with an increase of 12% year-to-year. The volume of production peaked in 2019 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production by Country

China (3,842M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of coal production, comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, coal production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (760M tonnes), fivefold. Indonesia (536M tonnes) ranked third in terms of total production with a 9.3% share.

In China, coal production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2007-2019. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+3.7% per year) and Indonesia (+7.8% per year).

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2019, supplies from abroad of coal increased by 2.2% to 1,093M tonnes, rising for the fourth consecutive year after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a resilient expansion from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.7% over the last twelve years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2019 figures, imports increased by +24.1% against 2015 indices. The volume of import peaked in 2019 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, coal imports contracted to $102B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, imports posted a buoyant expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2008 with an increase of 79% y-o-y. The level of import peaked at $110.7B in 2018, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2019, China (300M tonnes), India (254M tonnes), Japan (186M tonnes) and South Korea (141M tonnes) were the main importers of coal in Asia-Pacific, creating 81% of total import. They were distantly followed by Taiwan, Chinese (67M tonnes), committing a 6.1% share of total imports. The following importers – Malaysia (34M tonnes) and the Philippines (27M tonnes) – together made up 5.6% of total imports.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by China, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($23.4B), Japan ($23.3B) and India ($23B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2019, together accounting for 68% of total imports.

China saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The coal import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $93 per tonne in 2019, waning by -9.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated tangible growth from 2007 to 2019: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 when the import price increased by 71% y-o-y. Over the period under review, import prices reached the maximum at $130 per tonne in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2019, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Japan ($125 per tonne), while the Philippines ($70 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

Asia’s Market for Tea Extracts, Essences, and Concentrates Has Skyrocketed Over the Past Five Years

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia – Extracts, Essences And Concentrates Of Tea Or Mate – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The market for tea extracts, essences and concentrates in Asia rose by 10% and reached $2.8B in 2018. The market size increased at an average annual rate of +10.3% from 2014 to 2018. The level of extracts of tea consumption peaked in 2018 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports in Asia

In 2018, the exports of extracts, essences and concentrates of tea or mate in Asia stood at 51K tonnes, rising by 7.6% against the previous year.

In value terms, extracts of tea exports amounted to $335M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2014 to 2018; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when exports increased by 14% y-o-y. In that year, extracts of tea exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

In 2018, China (13K tonnes), distantly followed by Malaysia (8.3K tonnes), India (7.8K tonnes), Thailand (5.8K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (4.2K tonnes), Sri Lanka (2.9K tonnes) and South Korea (2.5K tonnes) represented the main exporters of extracts, essences and concentrates of tea or mate, together making up 86% of total exports.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by South Korea, while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($137M) remains the largest extracts of tea supplier in Asia, comprising 41% of total extracts of tea exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($53M), with a 16% share of total exports. It was followed by Malaysia, with a 9% share.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the extracts of tea export price in Asia amounted to $6,536 per tonne, jumping by 6% against the previous year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was China ($10,864 per tonne), while Taiwan, Chinese ($2,746 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia

The imports stood at 42K tonnes in 2018, increasing by 4.1% against the previous year. In value terms, extracts of tea imports amounted to $315M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated a strong expansion from 2014 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last five-year period.

Imports by Country

The Philippines (4.9K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (3.8K tonnes), Indonesia (3.2K tonnes), Singapore (3K tonnes), Japan (3K tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (2.6K tonnes), Kazakhstan (2.1K tonnes), Malaysia (1.8K tonnes), Turkey (1.7K tonnes), Myanmar (1.6K tonnes), Taiwan, Chinese (1.6K tonnes) and South Korea (1.6K tonnes) represented roughly 73% of total imports of extracts, essences and concentrates of tea or mate in 2018.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Turkey, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest extracts of tea importing markets in Asia were Hong Kong  ($34M), Japan ($29M) and Turkey ($24M), with a combined 28% share of total imports.

Import Prices by Country

The extracts of tea import price in Asia stood at $7,413 per tonne in 2018, going up by 2.3% against the previous year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Turkey ($13,953 per tonne), while the Philippines ($3,442 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2014 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, International Trade

Global Pears and Quinces Market Rose 2.9% to Reach $26.1B in 2018

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Pear And Quince – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global pears and quinces market revenue amounted to $26.1B in 2018, increasing by 2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Pear and Quince Consumption by Country

China (16M tonnes) remains the largest pears and quinces consuming country worldwide, accounting for 65% of total volume. Moreover, pears and quinces consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the U.S. (677K tonnes), more than tenfold. Turkey (631K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 2.6% share.

In China, pears and quinces consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2009-2018. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the U.S. (-1.4% per year) and Turkey (+3.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($16.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($819M). It was followed by Italy.

The countries with the highest levels of pears and quinces per capita consumption in 2018 were China (11 kg per person), Italy (10 kg per person) and Turkey (7.73 kg per person).

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of pears and quinces per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Turkey, while pears and quinces per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for pears and quinces worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Pear and Quince Production 2009-2018

In 2018, the amount of pears and quinces produced worldwide amounted to 24M tonnes, approximately equating the previous year. Overall, pears and quinces production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when production volume increased by 6.7% year-to-year. The global pears and quinces production peaked at 27M tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum. The general positive trend in terms of pears and quinces output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a slight expansion in yield figures.

In 2018, approx. 1.5M ha of pears and quinces were harvested worldwide; stabilizing at the previous year. Global average pears and quinces yield totaled 17 tonne per ha in 2018, approximately equating the previous year.

Pear and Quince Exports 2009-2018

In 2018, the amount of pears and quinces exported worldwide amounted to 2.8M tonnes, leveling off at the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2009 to 2018. In value terms, pears and quinces exports amounted to $2.8B (IndexBox estimates).

Exports by Country

In 2018, China (539K tonnes), followed by the Netherlands (349K tonnes), Argentina (317K tonnes), Belgium (290K tonnes), South Africa (222K tonnes), Italy (158K tonnes), the U.S. (132K tonnes) and Chile (129K tonnes) were the main exporters of pears and quinces, together generating 77% of total exports. Portugal (111K tonnes), Spain (102K tonnes), Turkey (65K tonnes) and Belarus (51K tonnes) occupied a minor share of total exports.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Belarus, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest pears and quinces supplying countries worldwide were China ($594M), the Netherlands ($395M) and Argentina ($294M), together accounting for 46% of global exports. These countries were followed by Belgium, Italy, South Africa, the U.S., Chile, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and Belarus, which together accounted for a further 43%.

Among the main exporting countries, Turkey recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average pears and quinces export price stood at $1,003 per tonne in 2018, picking up by 3.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the pears and quinces export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 16% y-o-y. In that year, the average export prices for pears and quinces attained their peak level of $1,146 per tonne. From 2014 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average export prices for pears and quinces failed to regain its momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,298 per tonne), while Belarus ($291 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2009 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform