The shipping industry is making progress on alternative-fuel technology, but uncertainty over global regulation is threatening to slow investment needed to meet its 2030 decarbonization target.

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A 2025 assessment by the UCL Energy Institute and the Getting to Zero Coalition found that developments in zero-emission fuel technology and supply are moving forward, while demand, financing and policy progress remain weaker. The report warns that these gaps could delay the industry’s 2030 breakthrough.

The issue centers on the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework. The framework was approved as draft regulations in April 2025, but formal adoption was postponed after IMO members adjourned discussions. The process is now scheduled to continue in 2026. (International Maritime Organization)

The proposed framework combines a global marine-fuel standard with a greenhouse-gas pricing mechanism. The measures are designed to reduce the emissions intensity of shipping fuels while creating financial incentives for the use of zero- and near-zero-emission alternatives. (International Maritime Organization)

Technology is advancing, but investment signals remain weak

The latest assessment points to a growing gap between what the industry can technically deploy and what companies are prepared to finance.

Methanol infrastructure has expanded, and more vessels are being built or adapted to use alternative fuels. The industry has also begun testing ammonia as a marine fuel.

However, the report’s five transition indicators show a less consistent picture. Technology and fuel supply are progressing, while demand and finance have not advanced at the same pace. Policy uncertainty is another major obstacle. (UCL Discovery)

That creates a difficult investment environment for shipowners, fuel producers, ports and financial institutions. Companies must make decisions on vessels and infrastructure that could remain in service for decades while the regulatory framework governing their emissions is still being finalized.

2030 target remains a key milestone

Under the IMO’s 2023 greenhouse-gas strategy, zero- or near-zero-emission technologies, fuels and energy sources are expected to account for at least 5%, with an ambition of 10%, of the energy used by international shipping by 2030. The strategy also targets at least a 40% reduction in shipping’s carbon intensity by 2030 compared with 2008 and aims for net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions from international shipping by or around 2050. (International Maritime Organization)

The 5%-10% fuel target is therefore more than a standalone benchmark. It is intended to help establish the fuel markets and infrastructure needed for the industry’s longer-term transition.

The IMO says alternative zero- and near-zero-emission fuels will be critical to achieving its longer-term climate objectives. Its current work also includes assessing renewable-fuel production, supply chains, port infrastructure and bunkering requirements. (International Maritime Organization)

Regulatory uncertainty adds pressure

The delay surrounding the Net-Zero Framework has increased uncertainty for companies planning investments across the maritime fuel supply chain.

The proposed rules would apply to oceangoing vessels above 5,000 gross tons, which the IMO says account for more than 85% of international shipping emissions. Once adopted, the framework is expected to take effect after a 16-month period under the MARPOL process. (International Maritime Organization)

The economic component remains particularly important because it would place a price on greenhouse-gas emissions while providing incentives for cleaner energy use.

Governments are continuing to work through unresolved issues before the framework can move toward formal adoption.

Next IMO talks could shape the path to 2030

The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee held its 84th session in April-May 2026 and agreed to continue work through an intersessional working group before the next major committee meeting.

The IMO has scheduled further discussions ahead of MEPC 85, set for November 30-December 3, 2026. A second extraordinary MEPC session is scheduled for December 4, subject to confirmation at MEPC 85. (International Maritime Organization)

The timetable leaves the industry with a shrinking window to scale up alternative fuels, vessels and infrastructure before 2030.

For shipowners and fuel suppliers, the challenge is no longer simply whether low- and zero-emission technologies can be developed. The immediate question is whether regulation, financing, fuel availability and customer demand can expand quickly enough to support widespread commercial deployment.