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EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

grain
Archives, EU Trade, Global Trade Daily

EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Grain – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There’s a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84М tonnes due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Key Trends and Insights

According to the latest EU Agricultural Outlook, there will be a decrease in the livestock herd in the EU in the next two years, causing lower demand for feed and a subsequent drop in grain prices. In 2024, wheat prices should decline from 206 to 178 euros per tonne, barley from 189 to 174 euros per tonne, and maize from 206 to 165 euros per tonne. This scenario is only possible if gas prices fall and the fertilizer imbalance is eliminated. However, high gas costs make fertilizer production in the EU less profitable and limit the possibility of a drop in prices in the next few years.

Demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the EU will remain stable, while consumption of phosphorus fertilizers will expand, driven by an increase in the input per hectare. As EU countries do not have enough phosphorus supply, a large share of the gains in consumption will be balanced by imports from the U.S., Morocco and China.

In 2025, grain prices will rise again due to higher energy resources and fertilizers costs. By 2031, costs per tonne for wheat are expected to reach 202 euros, barley – 183 euros and maize – 182 euros.

Demand for organic produce will continue to grow as Europeans place more and more preference on healthy products. This additionally will push prices up as the yield for organic produce is lower than with conventional crops due to the less aggressive use of fertilizers and pesticides.

The EU is forecast to remain competitive on the global grain market, although its share in the global exports will decrease due to tough competition from other key players, especially from the Black Sea region. Grain trade in the EU will reduce by 8% to 84М tonnes in 2025 (IndexBox estimates).

EU Grain Trade 

In 2020, the amount of grain exported in the EU stood at 91M tonnes, surging by 4.8% against the previous year. In value terms, exports rose significantly to $23.2B.

France was the major exporting country with about 32M tonnes, which accounted for 35% of total exports. Germany (12M tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Romania (11M tonnes), Poland (9M tonnes) and Lithuania (4.9M tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of exports in the EU. The Czech Republic (3.4M tonnes), Latvia (3.4M tonnes), Slovakia (2M tonnes), Croatia (1.9M tonnes), Sweden (1.8M tonnes) and Denmark (1.6M tonnes) occupied a minor share of the total supplies.

In value terms, France ($7.7B) remains the largest grain supplier in the EU, comprising 33% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Germany ($2.8B), with a 12% share, followed by Romania (10% share).

In France, grain exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% in 2020. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Germany (+56.7% y-o-y) and Romania (-15.7% y-o-y).

The grain export price in the EU stood at $255 per tonne in 2020, picking up by 5% against the previous year. Major exporting countries recorded the following prices: France ($245 per tonne), Germany ($230 per tonne). In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Sweden, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

orange
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Global Orange Market: Supplies from Spain to Reduce 8% This Year, Export Prices Surge

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Spain – Oranges – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Throughout January-September 2021, Spain exported 1.09M tonnes of oranges, which was -8% less than in the same period last year. In value terms, the supplies abroad rose by +1% to $1.04B due to increasing prices. This year, the average export price for Spanish oranges grew steadily from $0.9 per kg in January to $1.3 per kg in September. Spain remains the leading supplier worldwide, accounting for 26% of global export volume. Germany, France and Italy are the major importers of Spanish oranges.

Spain’s Orange Exports by Country

From January to September 2021, Spain’s orange exports totaled 1.09M tonnes, reducing by -8% compared to the same period in 2020. This trend will shape a noticeable annual reduction if it persists through the year-end. In monetary terms, the supplies abroad reached $1.04B, a 1%-increase compared to the previous year’s figures. Over this year, the average export price grew from $0.9 per kg in January to $1.3 per kg in September.

In 2020, the amount of oranges exported from Spain declined to 1.6M tonnes, waning by -6.7% against 2019. In value terms, the supplies surged to $1.4B (IndexBox estimates).

Germany (448K tonnes), France (380K tonnes) and Italy (128K tonnes) were the main destinations of orange exports from Spain, with a combined 58% share of total exports. These countries were followed by the Netherlands, the UK, Poland, Belgium, Sweden, Switzerland and Portugal, which together accounted for a further 27%.

The most notable growth rate in shipments, amongst the leading countries of destination, was attained by Portugal (+11.6% y-o-y), while exports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for orange exported from Spain were Germany ($382M), France ($360M) and Italy ($111M), with a combined 59% share of total exports. The Netherlands, the UK, Poland, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

In 2020, the average orange export price amounted to $883 per tonne, increasing by 25% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($1,020 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Portugal ($586 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. Over the last year, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Portugal, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Brazilian and American Suppliers Enjoy Skyrocketed China’s Meat Imports

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘China – Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

China’s meat imports soared from $14.7B in 2019 to $23.8B in 2020. In physical terms, the purchases skyrocketed from 4.1M tonnes to 6.8M tonnes. China’s meat imports continue to grow, increasing by +3% over the first seven months of 2021 against the same period of the previous year. Brazil, Spain and the U.S. became the leading meat suppliers to China and recorded the highest export growth rate among other countries. Pork, beef and sheep meat are the main types of meat supplied into China. Last year, China’s purchases of pork spiked twofold. Imports of beef increased by +26% y-o-y, while lamb and sheep meat supplies fell by -7% y-o-y. 

China’s Meat Imports by Country

Meat imports into China soared to 6.8M tonnes in 2020, picking up by 67% from the previous year. In value terms, meat imports skyrocketed to $23.8B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020, increasing by +67.0% y-o-y.

In the first seven months of 2021, China’s meat imports continued to follow an upward trend, picking up +3% in physical terms from the same period in 2020.

Brazil (1.3M tonnes), Spain (934K tonnes), and the U.S. (724K tonnes) were the leading suppliers of meat imports to China, with a combined 44% share of total imports.

Over the past year, meat imports from the U.S. rose from 0.3M tonnes to 0.7M tonnes. Purchases from Brazil boosted from 0.6M tonnes to 1.3M tonnes, while imports from Spain grew from 0.4M tonnes to 0.9M tonnes.

In value terms, Brazil ($5.7B) constituted the largest supplier of meat to China, comprising 24% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Spain ($2.7B), with an 11% share of total imports. It was followed by Australia, with a 9.1% share.

The average meat import price stood at $3,503 per tonne in 2020, decreasing by -2.6% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Australia ($5,371 per tonne), while the price for imports from Canada ($2,494 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

China’s Meat Imports by Type

In 2020, pork (4.3M tonnes) constituted the most significant type of meat supplied to China, accounting for 63% of total imports. Moreover, pork imports exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, beef (2.1M tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by lamb and sheep meat (365K tonnes), with a 5.4% share.

In 2020, the volume of pork imports grew twofold, while beef purchases rose by +27.6% y-o-y. Imports of lamb and sheep meat dropped by -7.0% y-o-y.

In value terms, pork ($11.9B), beef ($10.2B) and lamb and sheep meat ($1.7B) appeared to be the most imported types of meat in China, together accounting for nearly 100% of total imports.

Source: IndexBox Platform

vegetable imports
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

U.S. Vegetable Imports Will Peak at 9.3M Tonnes in 2022

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Vegetable – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The volume of imports in the U.S. fresh vegetable market is forecast to increase from 8.9M tonnes in 2021 to 9.3M tonnes in 2022. In monetary terms, imports should decrease from $10.5B to $10.3B with an expected price decline. Throughout January-October 2021, American purchases totalled 6.9M tonnes, which was 5.5% more than in the same period last year. Mexico, Canada and Peru remain the key suppliers for the U.S., accounting for 95% of its total import volume. 

U.S. Vegetable Imports 

From January to October 2021, the U.S. imported 6.9M tonnes of fresh vegetables, a 5.5%-increase compared to the same period last year. According to a recent USDA forecast, American purchases are set to keep growing from approximately 8.91M tonnes by the end of this year to 9.3M tonnes in 2022. The average import prices are forecast to decrease, and the total value of supplies into the U.S. to fall by 2% y-o-y to $10.3B next year.

Last year, the amount of vegetables imported into the U.S. totaled 8.1M tonnes, growing by 2.7% compared with the year before. In value terms, vegetable imports reached $10.4B (IndexBox estimates).

In 2020, Mexico (6.1M tonnes) constituted the largest vegetable supplier to the U.S., with a 75% share of total imports. Moreover, vegetable imports from Mexico exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Canada (1.4M tonnes), fourfold.

Over the past year, the growth rate of volume from Mexico amounted to +2.5%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Canada (+7.0% per year) and Peru (-4.7% per year).

In value terms, Mexico ($7.3B) constituted the largest supplier of vegetables to the U.S., comprising 70% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Canada ($1.9B), with an 18% share of total imports.

The average vegetable import price stood at $1,294 per tonne in 2020, increasing by 8.6% against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. The country with the highest price was Peru ($1,759 per tonne), while the price for Mexico ($1,206 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. The most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico, while the prices for the other significant suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Groundnut Oil
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Global Groundnut Oil Trade Intensifies on Booming China’s Demand

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Groundnut Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global groundnut oil imports reached $671M in 2020. In physical terms, global imports spiked by +15% y-o-y to 444K tonnes in 2020, mainly due to rising demand from China. China represents the world’s largest importer of groundnut oil, with a 61%-share of global import volume. In 2020, China’s groundnut oil imports jumped from $225M to $433M. Brazil and Argentina remain the key exporters of groundnut oil.

Global Groundnut Oil Imports

Global groundnut oil imports rose significantly to 444K tonnes in 2020, surging by +15% against the previous year’s figure. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a noticeable increase from 2010 to 2020: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade.

In value terms, groundnut oil imports skyrocketed to $671M (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. In general, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2010 to 2020: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade.

China dominates groundnut oil imports with a figure of 269K tonnes, which was approx. 61% of total imports in 2020. Afghanistan (43K tonnes) occupied the second position in the ranking, followed by Italy (39K tonnes). All these countries together took approx. 19% share of total imports. The following importers – the Netherlands (15K tonnes), Hong Kong SAR (15K tonnes), Belgium (11K tonnes), Benin (10K tonnes) and France (8.1K tonnes) – together made up 13% of the total imports.

In value terms, China ($433M) constitutes the largest market for imported groundnut oil worldwide, comprising 65% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Italy ($66M), with a 9.8% share of global imports. It was followed by Hong Kong SAR, with a 4.6% share.

In 2020, China’s imports of groundnut oil spiked from $225M to $433M. From 2010 to 2020, groundnut oil imports into China grew from $87M to $433M, rising at an average annual rate of +17.4%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Italy (+2.6% per year) and Hong Kong SAR (+2.3% per year).

In 2020, the average import price amounted to $1,509 per tonne, picking up by +30% against the previous year. In general, the import price indicated modest growth from 2010 to 2020, increasing at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Hong Kong SAR, while Benin was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the Netherlands attained the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

World’s Largest Exporters of Groundnut Oil

In 2020, Brazil (67K tonnes) and Argentina (56K tonnes) represented the key exporters of groundnut oil worldwide, reaching nearly 48% of total exports. India (36K tonnes) took a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Iraq (10%), Nicaragua (6.5%) and China (4.9%). Senegal (8.5K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

In value terms, Brazil ($112M), Argentina ($79M) and India ($59M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 63% share of global exports. These countries were followed by China, Nicaragua, Iraq and Senegal, which together accounted for a further 20%.

Source: IndexBox Platform

fertilizer
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Fertilizer Prices Spike and Will Continue Rallying Next Year

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Fertilizers – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Fertilizer prices continue to ramp up due to a shortage in supply caused by lower output in EU countries. High natural gas costs shape that growth because gas accounts for up to 80% of variable costs in nitrogen fertilizer production. Urea prices spiked exceptionally high to $900 per tonne in November 2021, gaining 30% against the previous month. Phosphate rock price rose by 4%, while diammonium phosphate and triple superphosphate were both up by 8%. Next year, fertilizer prices are projected to climb further due to a continued shortage in supply, but if costs for natural gas maintain their downward trend, they will hold the price increases back.

Key Trends and Insights

Fertilizer prices are continuing to rise. According to the December data from the World Bank, the urea price shot upward by 30% in November compared to the previous month, reaching $900.5 per tonne. This is already the second significant gain seen this year. Phosphate rock has also become more expensive by +4% up to $153 per tonne, while diammonium phosphate and triple superphosphate each increased by +8% to $727 and $665 per tonne, respectively.

The key factors driving fertilizer prices up were a supply shortage on the global market and the growing costs of natural gas, which account for up to 80% of variable costs in producing nitrogen fertilizers. Faced with more expensive energy resources, many European producers had to stop production as they couldn’t compete with counterparts in Russia, countries in the Persian Gulf and northern Africa. As a result, the global supply of fertilizer decreased and led to subsequent price increases.

According to the World Bank, in November, the prices for natural gas in the U.S. decreased by -8% to $5.02 per MMBtu, and by -11% in Europe to $27.6 per MMBtu, but despite that, they are still at record highs. If the cost for natural gas declines, it may reduce the rate of price increases in the upcoming months. However, this will not eliminate the long-term upward trend in fertilizer prices as there will still be a shortage in supply.

Global Fertilizer Exports by Country

In 2020, global fertilizer exports amounted to 204M tonnes, increasing by 2% from the previous year’s figure. In value terms, exports dropped to $52.7B (IndexBox estimates)

The largest fertilizer supplying countries worldwide were Russia ($7B), China ($6.3B) and Canada ($5.1B), together comprising 35% of global exports. These countries were followed by the U.S., Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Israel, Oman and Algeria, which together accounted for a further 38%. The shipments of the three major exporters of fertilizers, namely Russia, China and Canada, represented more than a third of total export in physical terms.

Top Largest Importers Worldwide

Brazil (34M tonnes), India (25M tonnes) and the U.S. (23M tonnes) represented roughly 37% of total imports of fertilizers in 2020. It was distantly followed by China (10M tonnes), generating a 4.8% share of total imports. France (7.4M tonnes), Indonesia (6.2M tonnes), Australia (5.2M tonnes), Thailand (5M tonnes), Canada (4.4M tonnes), Turkey (4.3M tonnes), Germany (4.1M tonnes), Argentina (4M tonnes) and Belgium (3.9M tonnes) held small shares of total imports.

In value terms, the largest fertilizer importing markets worldwide were Brazil ($8.6B), India ($7.1B) and the U.S. ($5.6B), together accounting for 36% of global imports. These countries were followed by China, France, Australia, Thailand, Canada, Indonesia, Argentina, Turkey, Germany and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 24%.

Source: IndexBox Platform

turkey
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Turkey Prices in the U.S. Keep Soaring Due to Strong Demand and Labor Shortages

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Turkey Meat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

This November, the price for fresh whole body turkeys surpassed November 2020 figures by 9%, while frozen whole body turkeys jumped 20% y-o-y. A short supply of workers led to lower turkey output and higher prices on the backdrop of consistently strong consumer demand. Turkey imports to the U.S. maintained the previous year’s levels. Canada and Chile remain the only turkey suppliers to America. Unprecedented inflation rates have struck the entire food sector; in October 2021, price increases for meats, poultry, fish and eggs became the highest recorded in the past 30 years.

Key Trends and Insights

Due to accelerating food inflation, Thanksgiving dinner this year will cost Americans significantly more than the previous one. According to the latest report from the USDA, the average price for fresh whole body turkeys in November 2021 was $1.46 per pound, which is 9% more than the previous year. The price for frozen whole body turkeys came to $1.36 per pound, a 20% increase in comparison to 2020.

The average cost of organic fresh whole body turkeys totaled $3.24 per pound (+4.8% compared to November 2020), while organic frozen whole body turkeys were $3.30 per pound (+23%). On average antibiotic-free fresh whole body turkeys cost $2.37 per pound (a decrease of 7%), at the same time, frozen whole body turkeys are going for $3.30 per pound (twice the gains compared to November 2020).

The increase in turkey prices is caused by solid demand running into a 6% y-o-y drop in butchered turkeys to 4.6M tonnes, due in part to a deficit of workers. The turkey market size in 2020 totaled 2.4M tonnes, while this year, it is expected to decrease to about 2.3M tonnes.

Higher turkey prices are occurring in the broader context of unprecedented inflation for food products. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs grew by 11.9% in comparison with October 2020. That is the fastest rate of price increases in the past 30 years.

It is unlikely that imports will offset the short supply of turkeys in the US. In 2021, imports remained at comparable levels to the previous year and from January through September consisted of 7K tonnes, accounting for about 0.4% of US consumption. In monetary terms, imports totaled $19.6M, having grown by 7% in comparison with the same period in 2020. Canada makes up 80% of American imports, together with Chile being the only suppliers of turkeys to the U.S.

Turkey Exports from the U.S.

In 2020, exports of turkey meat from the U.S. contracted to 214K tonnes, with a decrease of -11.8% compared with 2019. In value terms, turkey meat exports shrank from $483M to $416M (IndexBox estimates).

Mexico (135K tonnes) was the main destination for turkey meat exports from the U.S., accounting for a 63% share of total exports. Moreover, turkey meat exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, China (17K tonnes), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Guatemala (4.8K tonnes), with a 2.2% share.

In value terms, Mexico ($262M) remains the key foreign market for turkey meat exports from the U.S., comprising 63% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China ($27M), with a 6.6% share of total exports. It was followed by the Dominican Republic, with a 2.6% share.

From 2010 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of value to Mexico (+0.2% per year) was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: China (-3.0% per year) and the Dominican Republic (+0.2% per year).

In 2020, the average turkey meat export price amounted to $1,945 per tonne, with a decrease of -2.4% against the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices for the major export markets. In 2020, the country with the highest price was the Dominican Republic ($2,434 per tonne), while the average price for exports to Jamaica ($1,195 per tonne) was amongst the lowest. Over the past decade, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China, while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

wheat
Archives, Global Trade Daily, News

Boosting Shipments to Saudi Arabia and South Africa Push Poland’s Wheat Exports to $1B

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IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Poland – Wheat – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights‘. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2020, Poland’s wheat exports skyrocketed to $1B, reaching the highest point ever. In physical terms, exports soared from 2.1M tonnes in 2019 to 4.7M tonnes in 2020. The leading importer of wheat from Poland, Saudi Arabia, increased its purchases more than twofold last year. South Africa became the second-largest importer, unprecedently boosting shipments to 773K tonnes. The average export price for wheat from Poland jumped by +7.5% y-o-y to $223 per tonne in 2020.

Poland’s Wheat Exports by Country

Wheat exports from Poland surged 2.1M tonnes in 2019 to 4.7M tonnes in 2020. In value terms, wheat exports surged from $432M to $1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. Over the past decade, Poland’s wheat exports rose from 984K tonnes to 4.7M tonnes in physical terms, or from $208M to $1B in value terms.

Saudi Arabia (1.7M tonnes) was the leading destination for wheat exports from Poland, with a 36% share of total exports. Moreover, wheat exports to Saudi Arabia exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, South Africa (773K tonnes), twofold. Germany (675K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 14% share.

Wheat supplies from Poland to Saudi Arabia grew from 0.7M tonnes in 2019 to 1.7M tonnes in 2020. Exports to South Africa rose from 51K tonnes to 773K tonnes over this period. Among other countries, Algeria (from 63K tonnes to 402K tonnes) and Germany (from 503K tonnes to 675K tonnes) also ramped up wheat imports from Poland.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($377M) remains the key foreign market for wheat exports from Poland, comprising 36% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by South Africa ($169M), with a 16% share of total exports, and it was followed by Germany, with a 14% share. In 2020, the average wheat export price amounted to $223 per tonne, rising by +7.5% against the previous year. Average prices varied noticeably for the major export markets.

In 2020, the highest prices were recorded for prices to Kenya ($233 per tonne) and Algeria ($230 per tonne), while the average prices for exports to Turkey ($215 per tonne) and Germany ($217 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable growth rate in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Tanzania, while the prices for the other significant destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

 

Source: IndexBox Platform

carbon
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Site Selection, State Spotlight

States With the Least Carbon-Intensive Economies

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World leaders convened in Glasgow this November for the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference. Facing the intensification of global climate change, the negotiators reached an agreement that explicitly commits to reducing the use of coal, limiting other greenhouse gas emissions, and providing support to developing countries most impacted by climate change.

The Glasgow conference reflected heightened urgency around climate change as the effects of carbon emissions have accelerated and become more severe in recent years. A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that without rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, warming above 1.5°C is almost inevitable. This level of warming would have disastrous effects in the form of sea level rise, more severe weather events, and harm to agricultural systems and human health.

While there is still much work to do, the good news for the U.S. is that many states and the country as a whole have begun to reverse the growth in carbon emissions. Government policy to limit emissions and advancements in lower-emission technologies across the economy have helped turn the trends in the right direction.

Much of this progress has taken place over the last fifteen years. Total CO2 emissions peaked in 2007 at over 6 billion metric tons, but that figure fell to around 4.6 billion metric tons in 2020. One of the big contributors has been decarbonization in electric power generation due to the decline of heavy-emitting coal and the rise of clean energy sources like wind and solar. Over the last decade, these factors have reduced CO2 emissions associated with electric power generation by around 36%. And this trend also contributes to emissions reductions in the main “end-use” sectors—transportation, industrial, residential, and commercial—that consume electricity. Residential and commercial have seen the sharpest declines, with emissions dropping by more than a quarter since 2010 across both sectors combined.

Encouragingly, these declines have taken place even while the U.S. population and economy have continued to grow. From 1970 to the mid-2000s, carbon emissions and GDP grew together, with the pace of GDP growth exceeding that of carbon emissions. More recently, the steady upward trajectory of GDP has continued while carbon emissions have ticked downward. Since 2007, total energy-related CO2 emissions are down by 23.9% while real GDP has increased by 17.7% in the same span. These trends help alleviate concerns that reducing carbon emissions necessarily means limiting economic productivity, and many U.S. states are proving that economic growth in a less carbon-intensive economy is possible.

The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the U.S. Census Bureau. To determine the states with the least carbon-intensive economies, researchers at Commodity.com calculated total CO2 emissions per GDP. States with a lower value were ranked higher. In the event of a tie, the state with lower per capita CO2 emissions was ranked higher.

Here are the states with the least carbon-intensive economies.

State Rank CO2 emissions per GDP (tons per $ million) CO2 emissions per capita Total CO2 emissions (tons) Largest source of CO2 emissions
New York 1 123.6 9.0 175,900,000 Petroleum
Washington 2 135.9 10.2 77,000,000 Petroleum
Connecticut 3 136.8 10.5 37,600,000 Petroleum
California 4 148.0 9.0 356,600,000 Petroleum
Massachusetts 5 158.1 9.4 64,600,000 Petroleum
New Hampshire 6 158.9 10.5 14,300,000 Petroleum
Vermont 7 163.9 9.4 5,900,000 Petroleum
Oregon 8 164.5 9.5 39,900,000 Petroleum
New Jersey 9 198.0 11.9 105,400,000 Petroleum
Maryland 10 200.3 10.2 61,700,000 Petroleum
Rhode Island 11 206.5 10.5 11,100,000 Petroleum, Natural Gas
Hawaii 12 249.7 14.4 20,500,000 Petroleum
Arizona 13 252.1 13.1 93,900,000 Petroleum
Illinois 14 253.0 16.7 212,200,000 Petroleum
Maine 15 254.9 11.0 14,800,000 Petroleum
United States – 287.2 16.2 5,297,400,000 Petroleum

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/states-carbon-emissions/

vegetable
Archives, Global Trade Daily, Imports/Exports

States Producing the Most Fruits & Vegetables

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Many sectors of the economy have struggled during the COVID-19 pandemic, but one of the sectors that has faced the greatest challenges in the U.S. is also one of the most critical: agriculture.

The early days and weeks of the pandemic were difficult for many agricultural businesses as shutdowns created major disruptions for some of their primary customers. Much of the food service industry shut down overnight in March 2020, drastically scaling back one of the primary sales markets for farmers. In response, more agricultural producers shifted their focus to retail grocery and wholesalers. However, they paid a steep price in the form of lost products and new costs in labor and logistics to adapt to different distribution channels.

Since then, agriculture has faced many of the same supply chain and labor challenges currently plaguing the rest of the economy. Supply chain breakdowns have meant that farms have been struggling to obtain supplies and equipment that they need and that it has become more difficult to transport their products to customers. Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, especially in low-wage occupations, which has contributed to a shortage of pickers and other agricultural workers. Because produce is perishable, these issues have caused millions of pounds of produce to go unharvested or spoil before reaching consumers.

These disruptions pose a problem for consumers, who may have less ability to access high-quality fresh food at a low price, but also for the economy at large. Fresh produce in the form of fruits, nuts, and vegetables represents nearly a quarter of the total production value of U.S. crops. These products are also part of a larger value chain in the food industry that includes food processing plants, distributors, restaurants and other food service businesses, and grocery. This means that challenges in growing, harvesting, and supplying fresh produce creates additional struggles downstream for other closely related businesses.

These issues are also likely to affect what crops farms choose to grow and in what amounts. Because crops take time to raise, farmers essentially must make decisions in the present based on predictions about what the market might look like months in advance. With continued uncertainty, agricultural producers may prefer to shift more of their focus to crops that have higher value to improve their margins. In general, tree nuts and fruits tend to have higher production value than vegetables.

The current state of the agricultural market also underscores the importance of domestic agricultural production. In recent years, the U.S. has been importing a large share of its fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables, with imports totaling more than $24 billion in 2019. But with ongoing supply chain challenges worldwide, production closer to home will be important in maintaining the supply of food.

These fruits and vegetables come from a relatively small number of states where agricultural production is highly concentrated. The leader among these states is California, which is responsible for nearly 70% of U.S. fruit and vegetable production by itself. California is joined by other Western states like Washington, Oregon, and Arizona among the leaders, along with highly agriculture-dependent states in the South and Midwest.

The data used in this analysis is from the USDA. All data shown is for the year 2019, the most recent available covering both fruits and vegetables. To identify the states producing the most fruits and vegetables, researchers at Commodity.com calculated the total production value of both fruit and nut crops as well as vegetable crops, measured in dollars. Researchers also calculated what percentage of total U.S. fruit, nut, and vegetable production is accounted for by each state. Only states with available agricultural data from the USDA were included in the study.

Here are the states producing the most fruits and vegetables.

State Rank Total fruit & vegetable production Share of U.S. total fruit & vegetable production Total fruit production Total vegetable production
California    1    $29,181,329,000    68.94%    $21,437,185,000    $7,744,144,000
Washington    2    $3,396,600,000    8.02%    $3,033,860,000    $362,740,000
Florida    3    $2,759,462,000    6.52%    $1,536,612,000    $1,222,850,000
Arizona    4    $1,825,539,000    4.31%    $197,188,000    $1,628,351,000
Georgia    5    $823,604,000    1.95%    $308,074,000    $515,530,000
Oregon    6    $650,912,000    1.54%    $456,326,000    $194,586,000
Michigan    7    $578,847,000    1.37%    $361,709,000    $217,138,000
North Carolina    8    $560,492,000    1.32%    $60,811,000    $499,681,000
New York    9    $503,842,000    1.19%    $276,937,000    $226,905,000
Texas    10    $348,246,000    0.82%    $163,350,000    $184,896,000
United States    –    $42,326,702,000    100.0%    $28,770,303,000    $13,556,399,000

 

For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Commodity.com’s website: https://commodity.com/blog/most-fruits-vegetables/