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Labour Shortages and the EU Ban: New Challenges for the Palm Oil Market

palm oil

Labour Shortages and the EU Ban: New Challenges for the Palm Oil Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Palm Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

While Indonesia, planning to expand production, fights for the EU’s recognition of palm oil as a biofuel, Malaysia is faced with an acute shortage of labor due to the outflow of guest workers after the pandemic. Despite the challenges in these two countries, which produce 85% of the world’s palm oil, the global demand remains high. As the economies of the main importers, China and India, recover, the previous growth in demand is expected to continue.

Key Trends and Insights

In March 2021, the futures price for crude palm oil reached its highest level of 954 US$/MT in 13 years, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council, March 23. This is due to limited supply from manufactures as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, faces severe labor shortages. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the country has stopped hiring foreign workers, and the former migrants have returned to their homeland. Malaysian suppliers have asked the government to fill a 50,000 labor shortage, which could lead to a 20% drop in palm oil production. They also ask to cut product taxes and invest additional funds in the industry.

Over the next two years, the rising demand from the world’s two largest importers, India and China, is expected to become the main driver for the palm oil market growth. These economies recover, and rapid urbanization contributes to an increase in the need for food products.

Falling production and rising prices for sunflower oil, as a result of the sunflower harvest failure last year, could further fuel demand for palm oil.

Increasing tariffs for container transportation and a planned reduction of palm oil consumption in Europe could hamper market growth. The Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II and other food safety regulations could decrease palm oil imports to the European Union and phases out the use of palm oil as biodiesel. In 2017, the European Parliament adopted a resolution that bans palm oil for biofuel production due to the large-scale deforestation and labor rights violations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Also, in 2019, the European Union imposed an import duty on Indonesian biodiesel.

Indonesia Dominates the Market and Continues to Expand Production

Global palm oil production rose remarkably to 76M tonnes in 2019, picking up 6.4% against 2018. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% from 2012 to 2019.

Indonesia (44M tonnes) is the world’s largest producer of palm oil, comprising approx. 57% of the global volume. Moreover, Indonesia’s palm oil production exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Malaysia (20M tonnes), twofold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Thailand (3M tonnes), with a 4% share (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the average annual growth rate in Indonesia totaled +7.7%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following production growth rates: Malaysia (+0.8% per year) and Thailand (+7.9% per year).

Driven by increasing demand for palm oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2019 to 2030, projected to bring the market volume to 106M tonnes by the end of 2030.

India and China to Remain as the Top Importers

In 2019, global palm oil imports rose markedly to 50M tonnes, picking up by 7.2% on the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2012 to 2019.

In value terms, palm oil imports amounted to $30.5B (IndexBox estimates).

In 2019, India (9.7M tonnes), distantly followed by China (5.5M tonnes), Pakistan (3.2M tonnes), the Netherlands (2.8M tonnes), and Spain (2.7M tonnes) represented the key importers of palm oil, together creating 47% of total imports. The U.S. (1.6M tonnes), Italy (1.5M tonnes), Bangladesh (1.5M tonnes), Egypt (1.1M tonnes), Malaysia (1.1M tonnes), Russia (1.1M tonnes), Myanmar (1M tonnes), and Kenya (0.9M tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Spain, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest palm oil-importing markets worldwide were India ($5.4B), China ($3.4B), and Pakistan ($1.8B), together comprising 35% of global imports.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

africa

Africa’s Frozen Whole Fish Market – Nigeria Emerges As the Largest Market, with $488M of Imports in 2018

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Frozen Whole Fish – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The value of the frozen whole fish market in Africa expanded markedly to $5B in 2018, jumping by 5.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the market size attained its peak level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the years to come.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 1.5M tonnes of frozen whole fish were exported in Africa; increasing by 4.4% against the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the period from 2013 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year.

In value terms, frozen whole fish exports went up modestly to $1.9B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total export value peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Namibia (393K tonnes), Mauritania (287K tonnes), Morocco (284K tonnes) and Senegal (209K tonnes) represented roughly 76% of total exports of frozen whole fish in 2018. Seychelles (124K tonnes) occupied an 8% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Angola (4.7%). South Africa (47K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2018, the biggest increases were in Seychelles, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen whole fish supplying countries in Africa were Mauritania ($302M), Morocco ($286M) and Namibia ($278M), together comprising 46% of total exports. Seychelles, Senegal, South Africa and Angola lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Export Prices by Country

The frozen whole fish export price in Africa stood at $1,219 per tonne in 2018, approximately reflecting the previous year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was South Africa ($2,742 per tonne), while Namibia ($708 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, approx. 2.7M tonnes of frozen whole fish were imported in Africa; lowering by -1.7% against 2017.

In value terms, frozen whole fish imports went down modestly to $3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total import value hit record highs at $3B in 2014; afterwards, it flattened through to 2018.

Imports by Country

The purchases of the four major importers of frozen whole fish, namely Nigeria, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire and Egypt, represented more than half of total import. It was distantly followed by South Africa (163K tonnes), Ghana (157K tonnes) and Mauritius (142K tonnes), together achieving a 17% share of total imports. Benin (97K tonnes), Democratic Republic of the Congo (96K tonnes) and Zambia (96K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2018, the biggest increases were in Benin, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest frozen whole fish importing markets in Africa were Nigeria ($488M), Cameroon ($467M) and Egypt ($290M), with a combined 42% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritius, Ghana, South Africa, Zambia, Benin and Democratic Republic of the Congo, which together accounted for a further 39%.

Import Prices by Country

The frozen whole fish import price in Africa stood at $1,088 per tonne in 2018, surging by 4.8% against the previous year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Mauritius ($1,810 per tonne), while Nigeria ($839 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ghana, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

soap

Africa’s Liquid Soap and Washing Preparation Market to Expand Robustly, Driven by Growing Demand Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Africa – Organic Surface-Active Products For Washing The Skin – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

According to the IndexBox study, consumption of organic surface-active products and preparations for washing the skin has nearly doubled over the past decade, due to population growth and rising middle-class incomes. In addition, urbanization had a positive effect. In 2018, the revenue of the skin organic surface-active products market in Africa was estimated at $1.2B, an increase of 2.5% y-o-y. Experts expect that the demand for liquid soap and other detergents will increase significantly in the near future due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Consumption by Country in Africa

The countries with the highest volumes of skin organic surface-active products consumption in 2018 were Nigeria (148K tonnes), Egypt (104K tonnes) and South Africa (73K tonnes), with a combined 80% share of total consumption. Somalia, Mali, Sierra Leone and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 15%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of skin organic surface-active products consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Algeria, while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in Africa

In 2018, the exports of organic surface-active products for washing the skin in Africa totaled 7.7K tonnes, picking up by 13% against the previous year. Overall, skin organic surface-active products exports continue to indicate a strong expansion.

In value terms, skin organic surface-active products exports stood at $18M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

South Africa ($14M) remains the largest skin organic surface-active products supplier in Africa, comprising 77% of total skin organic surface-active products exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Egypt ($1.8M), with a 9.9% share of total exports.

In South Africa, skin organic surface-active products exports increased at an average annual rate of +16.7% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Egypt (+5.0% per year) and Nigeria (+82.4% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the skin organic surface-active products export price in Africa amounted to $2,366 per tonne, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the skin organic surface-active products export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 an increase of 19% y-o-y. The level of export price peaked at $3,395 per tonne in 2009; however, from 2010 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Egypt ($4,116 per tonne), while South Africa ($2,177 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Egypt, while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports in Africa

In 2018, the skin organic surface-active products imports in Africa totaled 37K tonnes, picking up by 21% against the previous year. In general, skin organic surface-active products imports continue to indicate a buoyant increase.

In value terms, skin organic surface-active products imports amounted to $101M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Algeria ($24M), South Africa ($21M) and Morocco ($9.3M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 54% share of total imports. Botswana, Libya, Angola, Namibia, Tunisia, Egypt, Mauritius, Ghana and Zimbabwe lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Zimbabwe experienced the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the skin organic surface-active products import price in Africa amounted to $2,686 per tonne, approximately mirroring the previous year. There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Algeria ($3,545 per tonne), while Zimbabwe ($1,468 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform