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Corn Prices to Lose 10% in 2022, U.S. Exports Double to $16.5B

corn

Corn Prices to Lose 10% in 2022, U.S. Exports Double to $16.5B

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2022, the average annual maize price is forecast to drop by 10% y-o-y due to higher global production and lower demand from Asia, after growing by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne last year. Thanks to rising corn prices and increased demand for feed grains in Canada, U.S. maize export sales reached $16.5B in January-October 2021, doubling compared to the same period a year earlier.

According to World Bank’s data, the average annual corn price grew by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne in 2021. This year, it is expected to decrease by 10% y-o-y with higher output and lower demand for feed use in Asia. At the same time, this forecast is subject to several risks, including explosive energy and fertilizer prices, high freight rates, biofuel policies and weather conditions.

Rising corn prices and high demand for feed grains in Canada stimulated the growth of export value from the U.S. Throughout January-October 2021, total U.S. maize supplies reached 60M tonnes, expanding by 30% compared to the same previous year. In value terms, American corn exports grew twofold, reaching a record $16.5B. USDA predicts that U.S. maize sales to Canada will rise ninefold, surpassing 3M tonnes in 2022. High prices for feed barley in Canada are set to propel the growth of demand for substitutes, including corn.

World’s Largest Corn Suppliers

In 2020, the volume of maize exported worldwide rose notably to 169M tonnes, picking up by 6.4% compared with the previous year’s figure. In value terms, supplies stood at $36.4B.

The shipments of the four significant maize exporters, namely the U.S., Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, represented more than two-thirds of global volume. Romania (5.7M tonnes), France (4.5M tonnes), Hungary (4M tonnes) and Bulgaria (2.6M tonnes) held a minor share of total exports.

In value terms, the U.S. ($9.6B), Argentina ($6.4B) and Brazil ($5.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of supplies in 2020, with a combined 60% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Ukraine, France, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, which accounted for 24%.

U.S. Corn Exports in 2020

Maize exports from the U.S. soared to 52M tonnes in 2020, increasing 25% against 2019 figures. In value terms, supplies skyrocketed to $9.6B (IndexBox estimates).

Mexico (15M tonnes), Japan (10M tonnes) and China (6.9M tonnes) were the main destinations of maize exports from the U.S., with a combined 62% share of total volume.

In value terms, the largest markets for maize supplied from the U.S. were Mexico ($2.7B), Japan ($1.9B) and China ($1.2B), together accounting for 61% of total exports.

Source: IndexBox Platform

fresh chicken market

European Fresh Chicken Cut Market – Output Doubled over the Last Decade

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Fresh Or Chilled Cuts Of Chicken – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the fresh chicken cut market in the European Union is estimated at $18B in 2018. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The total market indicated a buoyant increase from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

Based on 2018 figures, fresh chicken cut consumption increased by +15.2% against 2015 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 14% year-to-year. The level of fresh chicken cut consumption peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of fresh chicken cut consumption in 2018 were the Netherlands (1.1M tonnes), Poland (947K tonnes) and the UK (911K tonnes), with a combined 45% share of total consumption.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of fresh chicken cut consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the UK ($3.7B), the Netherlands ($2.6B) and France ($2.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, together accounting for 47% of the total market.

In 2018, the highest levels of fresh chicken cut per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (64 kg per person), followed by Poland (25 kg per person), the UK (14 kg per person) and Spain (11 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of fresh chicken cut was estimated at 13 kg per person.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the fresh chicken cut per capita consumption in the Netherlands stood at +13.8%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Poland (+10.1% per year) and the UK (+2.4% per year).

Production in the EU

The fresh chicken cut production totaled 6.8M tonnes in 2018, growing by 7.8% against the previous year. The total output indicated a prominent expansion from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh chicken cut production increased by +110.1% against 2007 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 13% y-o-y. The volume of fresh chicken cut production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut production amounted to $17.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut production reached its maximum level in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of fresh chicken cut production in 2018 were Poland (1.4M tonnes), the Netherlands (1.3M tonnes) and the UK (835K tonnes), together comprising 51% of total production.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of fresh chicken cut production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 1.9M tonnes of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken were exported in the European Union; rising by 4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut exports continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 with an increase of 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut exports totaled $4.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total exports indicated prominent growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh chicken cut exports increased by +20.5% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011 when exports increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (542K tonnes), Poland (430K tonnes) and Belgium (292K tonnes) represented roughly 67% of total exports of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken in 2018. Germany (167K tonnes) held an 8.9% share (based on tonnes) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the UK (7%). The following exporters – France (53K tonnes) and Spain (40K tonnes) – together made up 4.9% of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Poland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($1.4B), Poland ($1.2B) and Belgium ($637M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 69% share of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, Poland experienced the highest growth rate of exports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the fresh chicken cut export price in the European Union amounted to $2,466 per tonne, surging by 11% against the previous year. In general, the fresh chicken cut export price, however, continues to indicate a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 11% against the previous year. The level of export price peaked at $3,023 per tonne in 2008; however, from 2009 to 2018, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was France ($2,819 per tonne), while the UK ($780 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports in the EU

In 2018, approx. 1.6M tonnes of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken were imported in the European Union; jumping by 4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut imports continue to indicate buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 with an increase of 23% year-to-year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, fresh chicken cut imports amounted to $4.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. The total imports indicated buoyant growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +9.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, fresh chicken cut imports increased by +29.5% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when imports increased by 31% year-to-year. Over the period under review, fresh chicken cut imports reached their maximum in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Germany (319K tonnes) and the Netherlands (316K tonnes) were the largest importers of fresh or chilled cuts of chicken in the European Union, together accounting for approx. 39% of total imports. It was followed by France (210K tonnes), the UK (207K tonnes) and Belgium (143K tonnes), together comprising a 34% share of total imports. Ireland (46K tonnes), the Czech Republic (45K tonnes), Hungary (43K tonnes), Slovakia (30K tonnes), Bulgaria (28K tonnes), Austria (26K tonnes) and Greece (25K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Bulgaria, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest fresh chicken cut importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($762M), the UK ($743M) and France ($641M), together comprising 53% of total imports. The Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, Greece and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

Among the main importing countries, Bulgaria experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, over the last eleven-year period, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The fresh chicken cut import price in the European Union stood at $2,498 per tonne in 2018, jumping by 10% against the previous year. In general, the fresh chicken cut import price, however, continues to indicate a slight setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2010 an increase of 11% y-o-y. The level of import price peaked at $3,092 per tonne in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($4,079 per tonne), while Bulgaria ($1,517 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

international

International Diploma-cy

Higher education is one of the world’s leading “exports”

To compete in today’s knowledge-driven economy, college-bound students are increasingly going global in their pursuit of a top-notch degree. Since 2001, the number of students pursuing studies abroad has more than doubled, from 2.1 million to 5.0 million in 2018.

As one result, higher education is fast becoming one of the world’s leading “exports.” Many people may not think of education as an “export,” but when an international student comes to the United States, for example, the monies spent on tuition, fees and living expenses are considered “exports” of education services.

The current world leader in education exports is the United States, whose 7,021 two- and four-year colleges and universities attracted nearly a quarter of the world’s international students in 2018. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), revenues from U.S. higher education accounted for about one-fourth of the $903 billion global education services industry in 2011.

Top host destinations for foreign students

International students are the consumers of higher education exports

On the other side of the equation, the world’s leading “consumers” of higher education are China and India, both of whom see enormous benefits in sending hundreds of thousands of their students abroad to take advantage of educational opportunities and to bring that knowledge home.

Chinese students, for example, make up 33 percent of all international students in the United States, according to a 2019 report by the Institute of International Education (IIE), while the share of students from India has also grown dramatically. In 2018, China sent 369,548 students to America, while India sent 202,014. For both groups of students, the most popular fields of study are science, technology, engineering and math (STEM), followed by business and management.

American schools also benefit from the presence of international students, which is one reason why their numbers are rising (although their share of total U.S. college enrollment is still only about five percent). In addition to the cultural and social diversity these students bring, they also pay “full freight” – out-of-state tuition in the case of public universities or sticker price in the case of private schools. At some schools, international students even pay extra. At the University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana, for example, international students paid a $2,800 surcharge during the 2012-2013 school year.

These well-paying students have been a boon for schools facing rising costs or cash-strapped by cuts in state education budgets. But even elite institutions find these students attractive. For example, according to the ITC, foreign students made up at least 15 percent of the students entering Boston University, Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania during the 2011-2012 school year and at least 10 percent of students at such flagship state schools as the University of California-Berkeley. Many schools also actively recruit foreign students and even hire “brokers” to find students abroad. The ITC also reports that a growing number of public colleges and universities are forming state-wide consortia, such as “Study New Jersey” and “Study Wisconsin,” to host recruiting fairs and conferences for foreign students.

US Colleges with Greatest Share of Foreign Students 2018

Global competition to provide higher education

American schools, however, are increasingly facing competition from other countries that see the same opportunities. India, for example, recently decided to raise by 10,000 the number of foreign students admitted to its engineering schools as a way to improve the prestige of its national universities. As a result, the U.S. share of the international student market is slipping. While the number of international students going to America continues to climb, its overall share of these students in 2016 was three percent lower than it was in 2001.

While the dominance of U.S. higher education will likely continue for quite some time, competition for the world’s “best and brightest” will only get more fierce.

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This article was updated as of November 20, 2019.

Anne Kim

 

Anne Kim is a contributing editor to Washington Monthly and the author of Abandoned: America’s Lost Youth and the Crisis of Disconnection, forthcoming in 2020 from the New Press. Her writings on economic opportunity, social policy, and higher education have appeared in numerous national outlets, including the Washington Monthly, the Washington Post, Governing and Atlantic.com, among others. She is a veteran of the think tanks the Progressive Policy Institute and Third Way as well as of Capitol Hill, where she worked for Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN). Anne has a law degree from Duke University and a bachelor’s in journalism from the University of Missouri-Columbia.

This article originally appeared on TradeVistas.org. Republished with permission.