Data from maritime consultancy Windward indicates a slight uptick in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, though volumes remain far below pre-conflict levels. A new route through Omani waters has seen consistent, albeit small, daily traffic since early April, potentially offering an alternative to the primary channel controlled by Iranian authorities.

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Outbound transits continue to constitute the majority of traffic, suggesting permits are primarily granted for vessels to exit the Arabian Gulf. Independent analysts counted 11 ships passing through on April 5, while Iranian state media reported a slightly higher figure. Much of the tanker traffic using the main route is reportedly linked to Iran’s own energy exports.

The emergence of the Omani corridor follows diplomatic discussions between Omani and Iranian technical staff on ensuring smooth passage. However, analysis from Sparta notes that current traffic is a minimal fraction of normal levels and is dominated by bulk carriers and container ships leaving the region, with very little inbound movement.

The White House and Tehran continue to exchange threats and peace proposals, with a White House deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway expiring on Tuesday. A senior UAE diplomat stated that freedom of navigation must be part of any conflict settlement, arguing the strait cannot be held hostage by any single nation. Multiple defense analysts anticipate Iran will maintain control of the strategic waterway for an extended period, as demonstrated by recent orders to reroute commercial vessels.

The ongoing restrictions have significantly impacted global energy markets. Oil prices have risen sharply, with certain grades trading at a substantial premium in Asia due to tight supply. Diesel prices have also soared in key markets like Singapore and California, where retail prices have reached record levels.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform