Ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz stayed constrained on Wednesday, even as indications emerged that Iran and Oman were nearing a pact to coordinate passage through the strategic channel, while several major container carriers appear close to resuming full service on the more direct Asia-Europe lane via the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Read also: Maersk Mega-Ships Return to Suez Canal as Red Sea Routes Reopen

Kpler, a France-based data and analytics company, reported that just five vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on 25 August, a decline from seven the prior day. All five ships traveled under the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, with two heading into the Persian Gulf and three moving out toward the Gulf of Oman. Among them, four were identified as shadow vessels and one as sanctioned.

Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported that Tehran and Muscat have been in talks over the past month and have arrived at mutually acceptable outcomes. Fars also cited the spokesperson for Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) as stating that Iran might reopen the Strait if Washington ceased its interference and agreed to Tehran’s terms.

On its X account, Fars said an Indian oil tanker named Haana was approaching the Persian Gulf via the southern route, also called the Oman Corridor, on Wednesday, but reversed course following an IRGC warning. The post added that no movement had been detected along the southern passage of the Strait in the preceding 24 hours.

The Strait of Hormuz tracker, a complimentary real-time platform that monitors the situation through AI-driven assessment of current conditions, insurance markets, and diplomatic activity using live web feeds and AIS data for ship locations, indicated that three vessels had crossed the Strait in the last day.

The disruption has had a muted effect on container shipping, given that under 2% of worldwide container capacity moves through the Strait annually, though it has pushed rates upward due to climbing bunker fuel costs.

Return to Suez Route on the Horizon?

A complete resumption of commercial navigation via the Red Sea and Suez Canal is looking increasingly probable, as several carriers have begun announcing partial service restorations on that corridor. Nearly three years have passed since shipping firms first started diverting away from the Red Sea/Suez route, a considerably shorter link between Europe and Asia, owing to assaults on vessels by Yemen-based Houthi militants.

In recent days, the Houthis have stated they will persist in targeting Saudi oil tankers passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait toward the Gulf of Aden, a stance that had cast doubt on a swift return to the Suez lane. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait ranks as the third-busiest oil chokepoint, trailing Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, with roughly 9 million barrels per day of crude—about 10-12% of global seaborne oil trade—moving through it daily.

Nevertheless, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has formally declared a partial resumption of Suez services on the Asia-Europe route. In July, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, two leading container operators, are rerouting an Asia-Europe service within the Gemini network back through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

Lars Jensen, head of advisory firm Vespucci Maritime, noted that the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, along with the Ocean Alliance (comprising CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL), are also providing partial operations via Suez. He suggested that a return to normalcy could plausibly occur by the end of 2026, though some services might still loop around Africa to help carriers manage the surplus capacity released.

A full restoration of the Suez route for Asia-Europe trade would unlock substantial shipping capacity and exert downward pressure on container rates, which currently stand at their highest levels since 2024. Container vessels and freight costs hold significance for the chemical sector, as most chemicals are liquids transported in tankers, whereas container ships carry polymers like polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in pellet form. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) also moves in containers, and liquid chemicals are shipped in isotanks.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform