Strait of Hormuz Shipping Nearly Halts After Tanker Attacks
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a standstill over the weekend following attacks on tankers, highlighting the mounting threats to one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, even as crude prices remained largely unchanged amid the absence of headway in US-Iran negotiations.
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Ship-tracking data from Kpler showed only five commodity vessels passed through the strategic waterway on Saturday, with none recorded on Sunday, versus 31 during the prior weekend. The steep drop came after assaults on ships operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), intensifying worries among vessel owners about the perils of transiting the strait.
The sparse traffic also underscored the increasingly tough circumstances for shipping. Among the ships entering the strait on Saturday was an empty very large crude carrier with its automatic identification system turned off, while an Indian-flagged very large gas carrier took a path through Iranian waters. A small tanker hauling Iranian fuel oil was also observed leaving the waterway.
The weekend numbers mark a stark departure from typical activity. Prior to the conflict, more than 130 vessels daily were said to traverse the strait, which carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.
The reduction followed the UAE’s announcement that ADNOC-operated ships had been targeted while moving through the waterway. These incidents have amplified fears that commercial fleets may grow increasingly hesitant to rely on the strait, even where passage remains feasible.
The shipping slowdown is unfolding against a diplomatic landscape offering scant hope for a swift return to normal operations. US-Iran discussions aimed at ending the conflict and ensuring the strait’s reopening have faltered, with Tehran insisting Washington meet its demands before unrestricted maritime movement can restart. Iran has also challenged the US portrayal of events, asserting that any navigation accord must be tied to broader conflict-related issues.
Washington, for its part, has indicated readiness for a drawn-out standoff. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated the United States could sustain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, while the Trump administration has pledged additional economic measures against Tehran.
These opposing stances have left the strait’s near-term outlook in doubt. No clear signs point to an imminent resumption of regular commercial traffic, and ongoing attacks are making even those vessels willing to navigate the waterway more wary.
The disruption extends beyond Hormuz. At the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern entrance to the Red Sea, Kpler logged 49 weekend transits by commodity vessels, a drop from 55 the prior weekend. No Saudi oil shipments were detected moving through that route. This decline follows a Houthi announcement of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, adding further risk to regional energy and trade shipping.
The combined disruptions at both ends of the Gulf-Red Sea shipping corridor are fueling concerns about longer transit times, rising insurance premiums, and added strain on alternative pathways.
Despite the sharp fall in Hormuz traffic, oil prices held relatively firm in early Asian trading on Monday. Brent crude futures hovered near $88.72 per barrel, up roughly 0.2%, while US West Texas Intermediate stood around $82.35, slightly lower.
The subdued market reaction is striking given the severity of the disruption. Investors seem to weigh the geopolitical peril against weak demand prospects, ample stockpiles, and the chance that some supplies can still move via alternate routes or methods. Recent oil-market assessments have cited softer consumption and relatively full inventories as reasons for the limited immediate price impact.
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