Global shipping bodies are pushing back against claims that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, cautioning that real conditions on the ground remain highly uncertain and risky.

Statements from both Washington and Tehran this week suggested the కీల chokepoint is once again accessible to commercial traffic. Iran said the waterway is open under a ceasefire framework, while U.S. President Donald Trump declared via social media that the strait is “fully open” for passage.

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But industry leaders say that narrative doesn’t reflect operational reality.

Read also: Hormuz Traffic Collapses as Dual Blockade Chokes Global Shipping

Iran has indicated that vessels must follow a controlled route along its coastline, rather than the internationally recognized traffic lanes typically used for safe and efficient navigation. That shift alone is raising red flags across the shipping community.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) said it is still assessing whether the reported reopening aligns with global standards for safe and unrestricted navigation.

Shipping association BIMCO was more direct, calling the “fully open” description misleading. The group warned that the safety of established shipping lanes remains unclear, particularly with lingering concerns about potential sea mines. Until those risks are fully assessed, operators are being advised to think twice before entering the area.

Tanker group INTERTANKO also sounded the alarm, highlighting legal and financial risks tied to Iran’s proposed transit system. Ships may be required to coordinate closely with Iranian authorities, a process some interpret as conditional or permission-based access.

That raises another issue: payments. Industry experts warn that any fees linked to such transits could trigger enforcement action under U.S. sanctions. As a result, operators are being urged to avoid making any payments that could expose them to penalties.

The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) struck a more measured tone, describing the situation as a “cautious positive” but stressing that uncertainty remains high. The group emphasized that a true reopening would require a sustained and coordinated effort involving regulators, naval forces, and industry stakeholders to restore normal shipping conditions.

While a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has held since early April, the operating environment in Hormuz is still far from stable. Shipping movements are expected to take place under Iranian military oversight, even as U.S. forces continue to enforce a broad maritime crackdown targeting Iran-linked trade.

This overlapping system—partial access on one side and active enforcement on the other—has created a complex and risky environment for shipowners.

Adding to the challenge are unresolved security threats in the water. Advisories continue to flag the area as a potential mine zone, and vessels could face inspections, delays, or diversions even if they are not directly involved in restricted trade.

For now, the message from across the industry is clear: despite political assurances, Hormuz is not yet back to normal.

Shipowners, insurers, and charterers are proceeding carefully, and a full recovery in traffic volumes is unlikely anytime soon. Until clearer guarantees on safety and freedom of navigation emerge, many operators may choose to stay away altogether.