IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘Asia-Pacific – Rapeseed Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The revenue of the rapeseed oil market in Asia-Pacific amounted to $19.1B in 2018, rising by 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the rapeseed oil market reached its peak figure level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (7.5M tonnes) remains the largest rapeseed oil-consuming country in Asia-Pacific, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, rapeseed oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (2.8M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Japan (1.2M tonnes), with a 9.3% share.

From 2007 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China amounted to +4.3%. In other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.6% per year) and Japan (+1.8% per year).

In value terms, China ($9.4B), India ($5.8B) and Japan ($2.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 93% share of the total market. Pakistan and Australia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 4.4%.

The countries with the highest levels of rapeseed oil per capita consumption in 2018 were Australia (16,769 kg per 1000 persons), Japan (9,202 kg per 1000 persons) and China (5,144 kg per 1000 persons).

Market Forecast to 2030

Driven by increasing demand for rapeseed oil in Asia-Pacific, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2018 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tonnes by the end of 2030.

Production in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of rapeseed oil produced in Asia-Pacific totaled 11M tonnes, jumping by 3.2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years.

Production By Country

China (6.6M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of rapeseed oil production, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, rapeseed oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (2.6M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Japan (1.2M tonnes), with a 10% share.

In China, rapeseed oil production increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2007-2018. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.0% per year) and Japan (+1.9% per year).

Exports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, the amount of rapeseed oil exported in Asia-Pacific totaled 267K tonnes, going up by 4.7% against the previous year. The total exports indicated temperate growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, rapeseed oil exports increased by +20.2% against 2016 indices. In value terms, rapeseed oil exports totaled $282M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Australia represented the major exporter of rapeseed oil exported in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of exports accounting for 167K tonnes, which was approx. 63% of total exports in 2018. It was distantly followed by Malaysia (71K tonnes), constituting a 27% share of total exports. Singapore (10,498 tonnes) and  China (5,643 tonnes) took small shares of total exports.

Australia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the rapeseed oil exports, with a CAGR of +8.8% from 2007 to 2018. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Singapore (-5.6%) and China (-10.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of Australia increased by +38% percentage points, while Singapore (-3.5 p.p.), and China (-4.9 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Australia ($161M), Malaysia ($81M) and Singapore ($13M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, with a combined 91% share of total exports.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, average rapeseed oil export price in Asia-Pacific amounted to $1,054 per tonne, rising by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices for rapeseed oil attained their peak figure at $1,321 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export price stood at somewhat lower figures.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Singapore ($1,249 per tonne) and China ($1,212 per tonne), while Australia ($964 per tonne) and China, Hong Kong SAR ($1,021 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in Asia-Pacific

In 2018, approx. 1.6M tonnes of rapeseed oil were imported in Asia-Pacific; surging by 15% against the previous year. Overall, rapeseed oil imports continue to indicate a prominent increase. Over the period under review, rapeseed oil imports reached their maximum at 1.8M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, imports failed to regain their momentum. In value terms, rapeseed oil imports totaled $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

China represented the major importer of rapeseed oil imported in Asia-Pacific, with the volume of imports amounting to 817K tonnes, which was approx. 52% of total imports in 2018. India (221K tonnes) held a 14% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by South Korea (10%), China, Hong Kong SAR (5.4%) and Malaysia (5%). The following importers – New Zealand (63K tonnes) and the Philippines (30K tonnes) – together made up 6% of total imports.

Imports into China increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, the Philippines (+20.3%), India (+17.9%), South Korea (+13.2%), China, Hong Kong SAR (+12.1%), New Zealand (+8.3%) and Malaysia (+7.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Philippines emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Asia-Pacific, with a CAGR of +20.3% from 2007-2018.

In value terms, China ($680M) constitutes the largest market for imported rapeseed oil in Asia-Pacific, comprising 50% of total rapeseed oil imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($178M), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 10% share.

Import Prices by Country

The rapeseed oil import price in Asia-Pacific stood at $862 per tonne in 2018, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, the rapeseed oil import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the Philippines ($1,117 per tonne) and New Zealand ($998 per tonne), while China, Hong Kong SAR ($798 per tonne) and India ($805 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Malaysia, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform