The Port of Los Angeles delivered a strong performance in March, even as mounting geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies begin to cast uncertainty over the months ahead.

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The port processed 752,520 TEUs during the month, reflecting resilient activity despite seasonal headwinds. According to Executive Director Gene Seroka, the result comes on the back of Lunar New Year disruptions in Asia, which led to 17 blank sailings. Even so, volumes were only 3% lower than March last year, when importers accelerated shipments ahead of anticipated tariffs.

Import volumes reached 380,733 TEUs, down just 1% year-on-year, while exports climbed 7% to 132,129 TEUs. For the first quarter, total throughput stood at 2,388,843 TEUs—approximately 5% below last year’s level, which had been boosted by pre-tariff cargo surges. Despite the dip, volumes remain aligned with the port’s five-year average, indicating stable underlying demand.

However, signs of softening consumer sentiment are beginning to surface. Empty container volumes totaled 239,658 TEUs in March, an 11% decline compared to the same period last year. Port officials are monitoring this closely, as empties typically increase ahead of peak seasonal imports.

Looking ahead, April volumes are expected to strengthen as retailers begin restocking for spring and summer. Data from the port’s tracking systems indicate a late-month surge in arrivals, with projections pointing to total throughput approaching 800,000 TEUs—marking a solid start to the second quarter.

At the same time, trade policy developments continue to weigh on market sentiment. A new 10% global tariff introduced by Donald Trump took effect in late February, with legal challenges currently under review by the United States Court of International Trade. A decision is expected in the coming weeks, adding another layer of uncertainty for importers.

Energy costs have also emerged as a key concern. The ongoing conflict involving Iran has driven fuel prices sharply higher, with diesel prices in Los Angeles exceeding $7 per gallon and in some cases nearing $8. This is placing significant strain on trucking operators, many of whom are small businesses with limited capacity to absorb rising costs.

Efforts to ease fuel pressures have included a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign vessels to transport petroleum between U.S. ports. However, port officials report no visible increase in such movements so far.

Beyond logistics, the broader economic impact is being felt in the agricultural sector. Higher input costs—particularly for diesel and fertilizers—are squeezing farmers, while export volumes are under pressure. Despite expectations tied to a new U.S.-China trade agreement, shipments of key commodities such as soybeans have yet to materialize at anticipated levels.

Instead, China has increasingly turned to alternative suppliers, sourcing agricultural products from countries like Brazil and Argentina. Longer-term contract cycles mean U.S. exporters may have to wait before regaining lost ground in these markets.

Other agricultural exports, including almonds, walnuts, and pistachios—key commodities for California—are also facing headwinds, as global buyers adjust sourcing strategies in response to ongoing trade tensions.

Adding to the uncertainty, the White House is reportedly considering further tariff increases, potentially raising the global rate to 15%.

While the Port of Los Angeles continues to demonstrate operational resilience, the combined pressures of rising energy costs, shifting trade flows, and policy uncertainty suggest a more challenging outlook for the remainder of the year.