The Port of Los Angeles remains on track to record its third-busiest year ever, even as cargo volumes cooled sharply in November amid rising tariff uncertainty across U.S. trade lanes.

Read also: Port of Los Angeles Sees Strong Rebound in June Imports

The nation’s busiest container port handled 782,249 TEUs in November, a 12% year-over-year decline from last year’s elevated levels. Despite the slowdown, year-to-date volumes reached 9.45 million TEUs, putting the port on pace to exceed 10 million TEUs in 2025, according to Executive Director Gene Seroka.

“Even with all the trade uncertainty, we’ll finish 2025 north of 10 million TEUs,” Seroka said. “That places this year among our top three on record — and we achieved it without congestion or vessels waiting offshore.”

Efficiency Cushions the Downturn

Seroka credited the port’s performance to strong coordination across terminals, rail operators, trucking firms, and labor, noting that reliability continues to attract shippers despite softer demand.

November’s decline was broad-based. Loaded imports fell 11% to 406,421 TEUs, loaded exports dropped 8% to 113,706 TEUs, and empty containers declined 13% to 262,122 TEUs.

Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Demand

The slowdown reflects a broader cooling trend at U.S. ports as tariff volatility dampens cargo demand. The Global Port Tracker, published by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, expects year-over-year import declines to extend into 2026, driven by shifting trade policy and softer freight demand.

“We’re seeing the effects of tariffs weakening cargo demand from the fourth quarter into at least the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, adding that container freight rates are already sliding on both coasts.

U.S. ports handled 2.07 million TEUs in October, down 7.9% year-over-year, with sharper declines expected in November and December.

Frontloading Creates a Late-Year Gap

Much of the weakness stems from heavy frontloading earlier in 2025, as retailers rushed shipments ahead of possible tariff changes. While that strategy left inventories well stocked, it also created a cargo lull late in the year.

“Stores are stocked and ready for a strong holiday season,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “But uncertainty around trade policy in 2026 remains high.”

Outlook for 2026

U.S. container volume for 2025 is now projected at 25.2 million TEUs, down 1.4% from 2024, an improvement from earlier forecasts that warned of steeper declines. However, early 2026 projections still point to double-digit volume drops.

Despite the trade headwinds, the NRF expects U.S. holiday sales to surpass $1 trillion this year, underscoring a growing disconnect between consumer spending and import volumes as retailers rely more heavily on inventory management.

For ports and carriers alike, analysts say tariff policy will remain the key driver of cargo flows into 2026, shaping demand even as consumer spending stays resilient.