The peak shipping season is fully in motion, according to an analyst, as container rates benefit from a wave of frontloading driven by additional tariffs and escalating Middle East tensions that raise fuel expenses. Rate hikes and various surcharges from carriers effective June 1 boosted Asia-U.S. West Coast prices by 51% in the most recent week, reaching $4,836 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), based on the Freightos Baltic Index. Asia-U.S. East Coast prices increased 25% to $6,336 per FEU.

Read also: Shipping Container Rates from Asia to US Rise Again Amid Iran Conflict and Peak Season

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO), stated in a report that these increases are the most pronounced one-week jumps since abrupt tariff changes triggered a demand surge in June of the prior year, though rates then climbed over $2,000 per FEU. Levine noted that the trans-Pacific ocean peak season is well underway, with some observers citing frontloading ahead of an approaching tariff deadline as a factor behind the early start. He added that while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had not led to broad operational changes beyond Gulf states during the first three months of the war, rising oil prices may also contribute to the early peak season surge.

The United States Trade Representative announced new tariffs on 60 countries it determined have not sufficiently addressed imports produced by forced labor. Separate Section 301 investigations could result in new tariffs on Brazil and 16 other trading partners, moves that Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation in Singapore, called astonishing. Elms remarked that the tariff wall around the U.S. continues to rise, and while this may appear as old news, the net effect will be to speed up global supply chain shifts. A hearing is set for July 7.

Contracted shippers may be advancing shipments ahead of an 80% increase in fuel surcharges starting in July, when the quarterly Bunker Adjustment Factor is updated. Levine also indicated that signs Asian manufacturers plan to raise prices due to higher input costs may be driving some of the observed early demand bump. The National Retail Federation recently adjusted its forecasts, moving the expected peak season to June from July a month ago. The NRF projects June import volumes will be 5% higher than in May, declining to 3% in July and continuing to ease through September.

In 2025, prices weakened by mid-June as shippers held off amid uncertain demand. Levine suggested that additional rate increases scheduled for next week could push prices higher this time, but NRF projections that demand will peak in June make further rate increases in July less probable.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform