America’s trade-based economy is driven by tires. Every box that is offloaded from a seaport, every wind turbine part that is hauled inland, and every agricultural product that is transported to a rail terminal is dependent upon trucking. But new federal crash data shows that truckers face a different level of danger depending on where they drive, and many of those areas are critical freight corridors.

Read also: 5 Unexpected Factors That Tip the Scales on Your Freight Weight

A new analysis of National Highway Traffic Safety Administration fatal crash data, carried out by JW Surety Bonds, examines which states are most and least dangerous for tractor-trailer truckers. The complete results can be found in the recently released Most Dangerous States for Truckers. While the report is concerned with truckers, it is actually a signal of much larger concerns for those who have a vested interest in U.S. trade.

The results show a stark divide between those in urban and rural areas. They also pose important questions about how infrastructure, freight growth, and long-haul trucking intersect.

Wyoming Tops the List and Sits on a Principal Freight Route

Wyoming is the most hazardous state for truckers, with 3.94 fatal tractor-trailer crashes per 100,000 residents. Other lightly populated states are close behind on the list. This is not a trivial concern because Wyoming is home to Interstate 80, a major east–west freight corridor linking the San Francisco Bay Area region to the Midwest and beyond. Consumer goods, electronics, agricultural products, and industrial cargo travel on this route. The danger profile for Wyoming is similar to other rural areas of the country.

Four of the five most dangerous states have a few common traits that turn up the danger dial on the state’s highways. Four of the five most dangerous states are also long-haul routes, which means the drivers are more likely to be fatigued. They also have a sparse population, which means response times to accidents may be slow. Finally, add in the unstable weather with high winds, snow, and freezing temperatures, and the road becomes especially treacherous for the big, high-profile rigs.

The Northeast’s Safer Profile, Despite Higher Congestion

The region with the lowest rates of fatal truck crashes is the Northeast region, specifically Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, and New Jersey. There are several reasons why the rates are low in this region. One reason is the distance. The shorter the distance traveled by a truck driver, the lower the chances of fatigue. Another reason is the stringent regulations in the region. In this region, there are frequent inspections and patrols. In addition, there are fast trauma response rates in this region due to the availability of hospitals.

The Port of New York/New Jersey is one of the busiest truck traffic areas with a low rate of fatal truck crashes.

Interstates Carry the Largest Share, But Not the Majority

The study also examines fatal crashes by the type of roadway. Interstate highways comprise about 35% of fatal tractor-trailer crashes, the largest percentage of any roadway type.

Yet together, state highways and U.S. highways comprise more than half of all fatal truck crashes.

This is particularly relevant for international trade because, although interstates are the backbone of the freight network, secondary highways play an important connective role in the network. These roads connect the inland manufacturing centers with the rail terminals, the agricultural areas with the export elevators, and transport the energy resources from the production sites to the refineries or pipelines. They also connect the border crossing points with the regional distribution centers, enabling the smooth flow of products from their points of origin to global markets.

These roads consist of two-lane roads, intersections where traffic must stop for other traffic, and varying levels of maintenance. As trade patterns grow beyond the coastal metropolitan areas and into the inland production areas, the risk of being on these roads increases.

Rural Exposure and Nearshoring Trends

Freight volume continues to rise. This is a result of increasing e-commerce activity, resourcing efforts, and increasing cross-border activity with Mexico and Canada. This will cause more activity in the rural areas. This could potentially worsen the geographical risk imbalance illustrated in the data.

Energy transport from the Mountain West region, grain transport from the Plains region, and automotive transport from Mexico all require long distances through the countryside. Long distances require longer drive times. Longer drive times mean a higher chance of fatigue. Severe weather conditions only add to this risk.

From a trade resiliency perspective, this represents a fundamental risk. Fatal accidents have a cascading impact on lanes, time, and insurance claims. This will eventually filter through carrier pricing and contract negotiation.

Infrastructure and Policy Implications

The research results coincide with the ongoing allocation of infrastructure funding by federal and state governments. Rural freight highways have competing demands with urban transportation infrastructure. The results of fatal crashes can inform the prioritization of rural freight highways.

One thing that could be considered in the course of trade policies is the need to ensure safety in key freight routes. This will involve improving rural highways. This could require improvements in lighting, passing lanes, and winter conditions in hazardous weather. Space should also be provided for trucks to park. This will help in the prevention of fatigue since there will be spaces provided for trucks to park conveniently. Incentives should be provided for technology that has collision avoidance and lane departure capabilities, especially for trucks in high-risk areas.

The safety profile of connecting highways is of significant interest to port authorities and regional economic development offices. The reliability of inland routes can affect the growth of exports.

Insurance and Operational Strategy

Crash severity trends also impact insurance markets: states that experience more fatal crashes often experience higher insurance premiums for carriers using these roads, which can impact the cost of shipping contracts for shippers. To reduce crash severity, carriers can utilize route optimization techniques to identify dangerous areas of the road network, manage their schedules to get plenty of rest before making long rural hauls, and utilize advanced driver safety technologies for long rural hauls, especially cross-country hauls.

The shipper also plays an active role in making the roads safer: tight delivery windows and lengthy detention times can keep trucks on the road longer, increasing the risk of crashes.

A Freight Network Issue, Not a Regional Anomaly

Geographic concentration is a function of the structural elements inherent in the nation’s freight system. Rural states are conduits for bulk freight movement as well as cross-country container shipments. Rural states are also areas of higher fatality exposures.

As freight needs continue to grow and production moves inland, more freight will pass through the areas identified as higher risk. Improving these disparities will only make the system stronger.