According to FreightWaves, ocean shipping is a critical component for global trade, and disruptions to maritime routes create significant supply chain effects. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz to most tanker traffic by Iran is a current event, but crude oil is not considered the primary threat to markets. That distinction belongs to the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond.

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The yield on that bond previously led the current President of the United States to pause planned tariffs in April after it rose above a certain level. With the yield now at a lower figure and conflict ongoing, some analysts anticipate it could rise again, testing market resilience and potentially limiting options regarding Iran.

Fuel prices remain a factor for transportation planning as annual contracts between shippers and ocean carriers are being finalized. The full impact of war on global container shipping is still emerging, as only a small percentage of total volume transits the Middle East. However, that volume represents millions of containers.

Major liner companies have not operated scheduled services on the Red Sea-Suez Canal route since late 2023, marking a simultaneous closure of two key trade routes. This situation began after Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, attacked merchant shipping. Carrier profits reached tens of billions of dollars in 2024 due to longer voyages around Africa.

Although extensive bombing campaigns in 2024 and 2025 failed to eliminate the Houthi militia, their support from Iran appeared to wane as Iran faced domestic issues. The Houthis then focused attacks directly on Israel. Recent threats to close another strait have caused liner companies to abandon tentative plans to return to the Red Sea.

Changes in trade patterns influenced by tariffs are visible globally. For the United States, more imports from Asia are being routed through Mexico and Canada for land-based border crossing, reducing volume at a major Southern California import gateway. However, consumer spending has supported results at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

China’s effort to increase export sales in 2025 resulted in a surge of goods into Europe, leading to persistent port congestion. In that same year, global economic uncertainty, shifting trade patterns, and new vessel capacity caused some of the largest container lines to report losses, reintroducing the industry’s cyclical nature.

Some companies are pursuing strategic shifts. MSC recently acquired a half stake in a South Korean company and its fleet of dozens of very large crude carriers, moving to diversify away from the container business. Maersk, the world’s second-ranked container line, is expanding into delivery logistics with a unified platform for shippers.

There is speculation about further consolidation among smaller container carriers that lack sufficient capital. Questions also remain about how a pause in shipping law by the current U.S. administration might affect domestic carriers and security.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform