A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S is preparing for a softer earnings environment by cutting jobs and tightening costs as the reopening of Red Sea shipping lanes puts renewed pressure on freight rates.

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The container shipping giant said it expects 2026 underlying EBITDA to come in between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, a sharp decline from the $9.57 billion recorded in 2025 and below the $5.76 billion analyst consensus. Shares slid as much as 8.1% in Copenhagen trading, marking their steepest drop in three weeks.

Maersk’s outlook assumes a gradual normalization of Red Sea transits. During the disruption, carriers rerouted vessels around southern Africa, extending voyage times and effectively removing 7–8% of global capacity from the market — a dynamic that had supported freight pricing.

“With more services returning through the Red Sea, capacity will be freed up, creating a pricing environment under pressure in our shipping division,” CEO Vincent Clerc said in a Bloomberg TV interview. He added that Maersk sees significant opportunities to cut costs as the industry enters a downcycle.

The company plans to eliminate 1,000 roles, about 15% of corporate positions but less than 1% of its total workforce, targeting $180 million in annual savings. Productivity initiatives — including expanded use of artificial intelligence — will be a key focus.

Maersk forecasts global container trade growth of 2–4% in 2026, expecting to perform in line with the broader market. It also announced a share buyback program of up to 6.3 billion kroner ($1 billion) over the next year.

Market observers say the guidance is achievable even under full Red Sea normalization. “The low end of the range should be possible even with a full reopening,” said Danske Bank credit analyst Brian Borsting.

Security risks in the region had previously curtailed traffic, but Maersk completed its first Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit in nearly two years in December after attacks by Yemen-based Houthi militants subsided.

Meanwhile, freight fundamentals continue to weaken. Container rates from Shanghai have fallen more than 40% from their June peak and are expected to decline further, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Adding to pressure, the world’s five largest carriers have nearly 7 million TEU of new vessel capacity on order — roughly 20% of the current global fleet, data from Alphaliner show.

Financially, Maersk’s fourth-quarter performance reflected the cooling market. EBITDA fell by nearly half year over year to $1.84 billion, while revenue dropped almost 9% to $13.33 billion.