Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Control Threatens Global Economy with Long-Term Inflation
Military pressure on Iran may continue in the near term, but the likelihood of Iran maintaining some influence over energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing daily. According to a report from Fortune, this potential outcome could represent a significant strategic gain for Iran and its allies, Russia and China.
Energy and geopolitical analysts indicate that such a development would likely lead to elevated oil and gas prices and greater inflation over the long term. This scenario would leave the global economy in a worse position than before the conflict involving the United States and Israel began. One expert characterized the act of controlling traffic through the strait, even imperfectly, as a major victory for Iran, which could use toll collection to fund reconstruction and legitimize its role.
Evolving traffic flows
Current vessel traffic from the Persian Gulf remains severely constrained, having fallen sharply in March compared to February. Data indicates only a slight increase in volumes has occurred so far in April. Iran is currently permitting a limited number of shipments to specific Asian nations, with each passage negotiated individually.
The few tankers that do transit are primarily using a route near the Iranian coast after paying substantial tolls. A minor shift occurred recently with a small number of vessels moving closer to the Omani coast, which could lead to a marginal rise in traffic. However, hundreds of large oil and gas tankers are currently unable to leave the Gulf.
Analysts warn that a prolonged situation where Iran retains control of the strait would have negative global economic consequences, with rising energy prices reaching intolerable levels. They suggest the only ways to avoid this outcome would be a decisive military resolution or a peace agreement reached in the relatively near future.
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