Intermodal Market Experiences Robust Growth in Early 2025
The intermodal market continues its impressive peak into the early months of 2025, defying typical seasonal trends with a notable surge in volume, as observed in the third week of January. According to Yahoo Finance, year-over-year growth has soared to 27%, fueled by significant contributions from high Chinese export rates, robust American consumer demand, and preemptive inventory boosts ahead of potential tariff implementations.
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IndexBox data further supports these findings, reporting that rail intermodal volumes are advancing at an unprecedented rate, with CPKC, Union Pacific, and Canadian National spearheading the expansion. CPKC’s intermodal volume saw a 38% increase, while Union Pacific and Canadian National followed closely with growth figures of 36% and 31%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. Additionally, BNSF experienced a 29% uptick, CSX reported a 28% increase, and Norfolk Southern saw a 20% increase.
Ocean container volumes to the United States have similarly recovered robustly in January 2025, hinting at a broader, sustained recovery pattern. The railroads are strategically adjusting to this surge by striving to maintain their current workforce numbers, with the Big Four U.S. railroads collectively seeing a slight 2% year-over-year decrease in total headcount. This strategic labor management helps enhance operational capacity without necessarily expanding the workforce, as highlighted in recent discussions by industry leaders like Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena.
Despite these advances, the railroad industry acknowledges potential risks that might impede growth, such as capacity limitations and freight price volatility. However, their adaptive strategies, focused on optimizing efficiency, could effectively counter these uncertainties. Meanwhile, diversified commodity growth provides an added safety net, with notable increases in grain, petroleum products, and chemicals reported so far this year.
As the intermodal market progresses through what is typically a low period in the rail industry, its resilience demonstrates a shift in shippers’ inventory strategies and highlights the evolving dynamics of the logistics sector. The coming months will reveal if this enduring strength can withstand the usual winter trough before gearing up for its customary late-fall peak.
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