Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, with vessel movements still far below normal levels as a dual blockade continues to disrupt one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

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Recent ship-tracking data indicates that just 11 commercial vessels passed through the strait on Tuesday, with weekend averages only slightly higher at around 16 per day. By comparison, daily traffic averaged roughly 135 transits over the past year, underscoring the scale of the disruption. Actual numbers may be somewhat higher, as some vessels disable their tracking systems when navigating high-risk areas.

The slowdown is already sending shockwaves through global energy markets. The disruption has contributed to an estimated shortfall of more than 400 million barrels of oil shipments, pushing crude prices up by over 30% since the conflict began. European natural gas prices have climbed at a similar pace.

Uncertainty remains over Iran’s oil exports. Iranian-linked tankers often operate without active tracking signals, making flows difficult to verify. While U.S. officials maintain that no vessels have successfully bypassed their blockade, Tehran claims otherwise, highlighting the murky picture in the region.

Tensions escalated after ceasefire negotiations collapsed over the weekend, prompting the U.S. to expand its maritime restrictions to include most Iranian shipping activity. The move marked a shift from earlier efforts to avoid tightening global oil supplies.

Despite the standoff, there are isolated signs of movement. A small number of large crude carriers have managed to enter the Persian Gulf, including one Greek-owned vessel heading toward Iraq’s Basra oil terminal. However, such transits remain rare, particularly for non-Iranian-linked ships.

Satellite imagery also suggests continued activity at Iran’s Jask export terminal, though the destination of at least one recently loaded tanker remains unclear after it went dark.

Beyond oil, limited container and bulk shipping activity persists. A handful of Iran-linked vessels have exited the الخليج, staying close to Iranian coastal routes for safety. Most ship movements are now confined to a narrow northern passage near Iranian territory, reflecting the heightened security risks across the wider waterway.

Overall, while some vessels are still attempting to navigate the strait, traffic remains a fraction of normal levels—highlighting the ongoing strain on global trade flows and energy supply chains.