Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, with the latest trade data showing little sign of a meaningful recovery. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb is also showing signs of weakness as geopolitical risks continue to cloud vessel-routing decisions.

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Data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence show total transits through Hormuz fell 18% week over week. Outbound movements dropped 30%, while inbound traffic declined 6%.

The figures suggest shipowners remain cautious about sending vessels through the strategic waterway despite shifting developments in the wider Middle East.

Red Sea Traffic Also Slips

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb was relatively stable but edged lower. A total of 269 vessels were recorded crossing the strait, compared with 273 the previous week.

Maritime analysts cautioned against reading too much into the second consecutive decline, particularly following the initial drop after the Houthis announced restrictions targeting Saudi-linked shipping.

Suez Canal activity also weakened slightly, with 263 transits recorded last week, down from 275. Analysts said the decline remains within normal fluctuations, although the number of very large crude carriers using the canal increased as operators adjusted their routes.

“There is still this shuttle service where ships remain inside the Gulf before moving onward, alongside ship-to-ship transfers,” said Tomer Raanan, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

He said additional ship-to-ship transfers are taking place in the Gulf of Oman. Many of the vessels involved are operated by ADNOC, Sinokor and Kuwait Oil Company.

Shipping Industry Faces Difficult Choices

Uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations is adding another layer of complexity for shipowners.

Lloyd’s List Editor-in-Chief Richard Meade said conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran are making it increasingly difficult for the industry to determine which route offers the lower risk.

For operators, the choice can involve balancing the perceived security of securing safe passage through Hormuz against the possibility of renewed attacks if vessels use alternative routes.

Another complication is the potential legal exposure associated with payments to Iran.

Payments for safe passage could potentially trigger U.S. sanctions administered by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), leaving shipowners caught between maritime security risks and sanctions compliance.

Claire O’Neill McCleskey, co-founder of Clarity Compliance Consulting, said companies may ultimately have to determine which risk they are more willing to accept.

The prospect of a vessel being damaged, along with the potential danger to its crew and cargo, could weigh heavily in those calculations.

Fresh Red Sea Security Alert

The situation in the Red Sea remains equally fluid.

At the time of publication, maritime security firm Ambrey reported that the Houthis had allegedly launched a UAV attack targeting a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

The extent of any damage was not immediately known.

With shipping volumes through Hormuz still well below normal levels and risks around Bab el-Mandeb continuing to evolve, carriers and tanker operators face growing pressure to balance security, sanctions compliance, insurance costs and voyage economics when determining their next move.