The announcement of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran has sparked optimism across energy markets, with expectations that the Strait of Hormuz could soon reopen to commercial shipping. However, industry analysts caution that restoring normal trade and energy flows through one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints could take far longer than markets anticipate.

Read also: US and Iran Announce Agreement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

While the deal may reduce immediate supply concerns and ease pressure on oil prices, experts warn that months of disruption have fundamentally altered shipping patterns, procurement strategies, and risk assessments across global supply chains.

Many importers, refiners, and energy buyers have already adapted by securing alternative suppliers, building inventories, and developing new transportation routes. As a result, the return of vessels to Hormuz may not automatically translate into a return to pre-crisis trading volumes.

“The reopening of a waterway and the normalization of trade are not the same thing,” said Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital. He noted that while physical shipments could resume relatively quickly, rebuilding confidence among shipowners, insurers, and cargo interests will likely be a much slower process.

Market participants across the energy sector echoed similar concerns. Analysts say the months-long disruption has left lasting effects, ranging from elevated transportation costs and strained inventories to uncertainty surrounding damaged infrastructure and future geopolitical stability.

According to Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova, the economic consequences of the crisis cannot be reversed overnight. Countries that relied heavily on Gulf energy exports have spent months coping with higher fuel costs and supply uncertainty, creating challenges that will persist even after shipping lanes reopen.

Others point to practical obstacles that could slow the recovery. Charu Chanana of Saxo Markets said operational challenges such as mine-clearing efforts, insurance restrictions, port congestion, and ongoing security concerns could continue to limit vessel movements even if political agreements are reached.

Oil prices may also remain supported despite the diplomatic breakthrough. Analysts at IG Australia believe many nations are likely to replenish strategic petroleum reserves and rebuild stockpiles once access through Hormuz improves, potentially sustaining demand in the near term.

At the same time, some market observers remain cautious about the durability of the agreement itself. Linh Tran of XS.com warned that negotiations have not yet produced a fully tested long-term framework, leaving room for renewed volatility if implementation difficulties emerge.

Chris Weston of Pepperstone Group also questioned whether unresolved issues between Washington and Tehran could create additional hurdles before a lasting settlement is achieved.

Beyond the immediate market reaction, experts believe the crisis may leave a permanent mark on global energy logistics.

Sara Vakhshouri, President of SVB Energy International, said governments and importers are likely to continue diversifying supply sources and transportation routes to reduce future dependence on a single chokepoint. These adjustments could reshape global energy trade long after the current tensions subside.

Shipping specialists are also urging caution. Anoop Singh of Oil Brokerage said many vessel owners are still waiting for greater clarity before committing ships back to the region. Risk appetite varies significantly among shipping companies, and insurers are expected to play a major role in determining how quickly traffic returns.

Data and analytics firm Vortexa noted that even after vessels begin returning, the recovery process will likely unfold in stages. Tankers would first resume ballast voyages into the region, followed by a gradual increase in crude exports, refinery operations, and broader commercial activity.

Meanwhile, economists at OCBC say production recovery timelines will depend heavily on the condition of facilities affected by the conflict and how quickly operators can restore full output.

For now, market sentiment has improved, but analysts agree that the path to normal operations remains uncertain. While a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would mark a significant milestone, the global energy and shipping industries are preparing for a gradual recovery rather than an immediate return to business as usual.

As one of the most significant supply disruptions in recent history begins to ease, the focus is now shifting from diplomacy to execution—and whether confidence can return as quickly as the headlines suggest.