Global trade is poised to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, setting a new record and climbing 7% from 2024, even as geopolitical rifts and rising costs begin to cool momentum heading into 2026, according to UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) final Global Trade Update of the year.

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Maritime transport remained the backbone of this expansion. Seaborne goods flows accounted for nearly $1.5 trillion of the $2.2 trillion increase, while services trade added another $750 billion, growing almost 9%. Still, UNCTAD expects the pace to soften in the final quarter, projecting growth of only 0.5% for goods and 2% for services as economic headwinds intensify.

East Asia anchored much of the global upswing. The region posted a 9% export increase over the past four quarters and saw intra-regional trade jump 10%. Africa also delivered strong results, with imports up 10% and exports rising 6%, reinforcing a broader trend: South-South trade expanded 8%, outpacing global averages and highlighting the growing resilience of developing economies.

By contrast, advanced economies grew more slowly. North American exports rose just 2% over the past four quarters and slipped 3% in the third quarter. Europe fared slightly better with 6% annual export growth, though quarterly results eased to 2%.

Manufactured goods continued to power global trade, expanding 10% year-over-year. Electronics led the surge with 14% growth driven by AI-related demand. Agricultural shipments also strengthened, posting an 8% jump in the third quarter, with cereals, fruits, vegetables, and oilseeds showing particular momentum.

The automotive sector, however, showed signs of strain. Overall auto trade contracted 4% over the past year as combustion-engine vehicle volumes fell 13% and electric-vehicle trade slipped 5%. Hybrid vehicles were the lone bright spot, soaring 22%. In commodities, iron and steel trade surged 40% since Q3 2024, although broader natural-resource flows remained muted amid lower fuel prices.

Global trade imbalances remain a challenge. China’s goods surplus narrowed slightly in the third quarter but remained about $30 billion higher than the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit improved relative to earlier in the year.

UNCTAD notes that geopolitical fragmentation is increasingly reshaping maritime routes. Both friend-shoring and near-shoring indicators strengthened in the third quarter, reversing earlier declines and returning toward 2021 levels. Trade concentration among major economies also increased, pointing to a rising share of global cargo moving through a smaller circle of key trading partners.

Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD warns that trade momentum is likely to cool. Slowing global growth, rising debt burdens, elevated trade costs, and persistent uncertainty are expected to weigh on shipping activity. While many developing economies have proven resilient, swelling debt remains a constraint.

Even so, the shift from price-driven to volume-driven growth in late 2025 suggests that underlying demand remains firm. For vessel operators and port terminals, this signals steady cargo flows ahead—though margins may tighten as rates stay under pressure.