What a Trump Presidency Will Mean for the Tech Industry
As the world is still recovering from the shock of President-elect Donald Trump’s unprecedented victory over Hillary Clinton, many people are wondering what the future of America will now hold. Changes are expected across the board, including in the tech industry.
“Those who work in tech are waiting with bated breath to see how a Donald Trump presidency will change the way the industry works, and for good reason,” said Karl Volkman, chief technology officer of SRV Network, Inc. “There are many pressing debates raging in the tech world, and several unsettled issues that could forever change the face of the internet once they are decided.”
Here are some key areas in the tech industry that Volkman thinks Trump might impact:
Net neutrality. “Trump is expected to support net neutrality, along with other Republicans,” said Volkman. “If net neutrality goes forward as big dogs like Comcast and Verizon desire, large corporations will essentially dominate the internet, which means that users will completely be at the whim of these companies—companies which already have some of the lowest customer satisfaction ratings in the country. They will also dictate what you can access on the web. Large businesses will be able to pay cable providers top dollar in return for high download speeds, while small businesses will essentially be edged out. It is a lose-lose situation for everyone, except of course, the monopolizing companies who will get to dominate every piece of the pie.”
Privacy. “In the wake of the San Bernardino attacks, Trump was outspoken about his opinion of Apple and how they did not loosen their security measures for the FBI,” said Volkman. “It is expected that Trump will continue to prioritize transparency over privacy, as he has said before that surveillance measures are a necessary cost of security.”
Amazon under fire. “Trump has also been outspoken against Amazon,” Volkman noted. “He says that the tech giant is unfairly avoiding taxes. If he attempts to go after Amazon as he has promised, these changes could be reflected in the prices consumers pay for things like Amazon Prime.”
Immigration. “If he makes changes to the H1-B visa program,” said Volkman, “tech could be looking at a severe drought in international talent.”
The merging of two giants. “Trump has said that he would block AT & T’s takeover of Time Warner, as he believes it would give too much power to too few people,” said Volkman. “Time will tell if he will make good on this promise, but if he does, critics warn that innovation and connectivity could be negatively impacted as a result.”
Re: H-1B
The H-1B visa SHOULD bring in top talent to the US. Unfortunately, that’s not what it’s currently being used for. The GAO put out a report on the H-1B visa that discusses at some length the fact that the vast majority of H-1B workers are hired into entry-level positions. In fact, most are at “Level I”, which is officially defined by the Dept. of Labor as those who have a “basic understanding of duties and perform routine tasks requiring limited judgment”. Moreover, the GAO found that a mere 6% of H-1B workers are at “Level IV”, which is officially defined by the US Dept. of Labor as those who are “fully competent” [1]. This belies the industry lobbyists’ claims that H-1B workers are hired because they are experts that can’t be found among the U.S. workforce.
So this means one of two things: either companies are looking for entry-level workers (in which case, their rhetoric about needing PhDs and “the best and brightest” is meaningless), or they’re looking for more experienced workers but only paying them at the Level I, entry-level pay scale. In my opinion, companies are using the H-1B visa to engage in legalized age discrimination, as the vast majority of H-1B workers are under the age of 35 [2], especially those at the Level I and Level II categories.
Any way you slice it, it amounts to H-1B visa abuse, all facilitated and with the blessings of the US government.
The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) has never shown a sharp upward trend of Computer Science graduate starting salaries, which would indicate a labor shortage (remember – the vast majority of H-1B visas are granted for computer-related positions). In fact, according to their current survey for Fall 2015, starting salaries for CS grads went down by 4% from the prior year. This is particularly interesting in that salaries overall rose 5.2% [3].
The visa laws need an overhaul so that the visa is only used for it’s stated purpose – to attract (and pay accordingly) TOP talent.
References:
[1] GAO-11-26: H-1B VISA PROGRAM – Reforms Are Needed to Minimize the Risks and Costs of Current Program
[2] Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Report to Congress October 1, 2013 – September 30, 2014
[3] NACE Fall 2015 Salary Survey, NACE Salary Survey – September 2014 Executive Summary