IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coconut (Copra) Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global coconut oil market revenue amounted to $5.9B in 2018, going down by -3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, coconut oil consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the market value increased by 18% year-to-year. Global coconut oil consumption peaked at $6.1B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut oil consumption in 2018 were the U.S. (507K tonnes), Indonesia (443K tonnes) and India (385K tonnes), with a combined 38% share of global consumption. The Philippines, Germany, the Netherlands, Viet Nam, China, Malaysia, Mexico and South Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

From 2011 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut oil consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Malaysia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($1B), the U.S. ($638M) and Indonesia ($545M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, together accounting for 37% of the global market. These countries were followed by Mexico, the Philippines, Germany, the Netherlands, Viet Nam, Malaysia, China and South Korea, which together accounted for a further 33%.

In 2018, the highest levels of coconut oil per capita consumption was registered in the Netherlands (10,511 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Malaysia (4,269 kg per 1000 persons), the Philippines (2,639 kg per 1000 persons) and Germany (2,237 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of coconut oil was estimated at 457 kg per 1000 persons.

From 2011 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the coconut oil per capita consumption in the Netherlands totaled +2.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Malaysia (+8.6% per year) and the Philippines (-6.2% per year).

Market Forecast 2019-2025

The coconut oil market is expected to start a downward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to decrease slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of -1.3% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to depress the market volume to 3.2M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

Global coconut oil production stood at 3.2M tonnes in 2018, remaining constant against the previous year. Overall, coconut oil production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 6.2% y-o-y. Global coconut oil production peaked at 3.3M tonnes in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, coconut oil production stood at $5.2B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Over the period under review, coconut oil production continues to indicate a measured deduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when production volume increased by 31% y-o-y. Global coconut oil production peaked at $6.1B in 2011; however, from 2012 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut oil production in 2018 were the Philippines (1.2M tonnes), Indonesia (885K tonnes) and India (390K tonnes), with a combined 76% share of global production. Viet Nam, Mexico, Malaysia and Cote d’Ivoire lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 12%.

From 2011 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut oil production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Cote d’Ivoire, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 1.9M tonnes of coconut (copra) oil were exported worldwide; shrinking by -3.8% against the previous year. Overall, coconut oil exports continue to indicate a slight curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2012 with an increase of 7.7% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global coconut oil exports attained their peak figure at 2.2M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, coconut oil exports amounted to $2.6B in 2018. Over the period under review, coconut oil exports continue to indicate a pronounced decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when Exports increased by 31% year-to-year. Global exports peaked at $3.4B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports by Country

In 2018, the Philippines (916K tonnes) was the main exporter of coconut (copra) oil, comprising 49% of total exports. Indonesia (457K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 25% share, followed by the Netherlands (11%) and Malaysia (6.6%).

The Philippines experienced a relatively flat trend pattern of coconut (copra) oil exports. At the same time, the Netherlands (+1.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +1.0% from 2011-2018. By contrast, Malaysia (-2.3%) and Indonesia (-3.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The Philippines (+3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Indonesia saw its share reduced by -6.1% from 2011 to 2018, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Philippines ($1.2B) remains the largest coconut oil supplier worldwide, comprising 45% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Indonesia ($570M), with a 22% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 12% share.

From 2011 to 2018, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the Philippines totaled -2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Indonesia (-6.9% per year) and the Netherlands (-1.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The average coconut oil export price stood at $1,425 per tonne in 2018, reducing by -18.2% against the previous year. Overall, the coconut oil export price continues to indicate a temperate reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for coconut (copra) oil reached their peak figure at $1,742 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($1,591 per tonne) and Malaysia ($1,319 per tonne), while Indonesia ($1,247 per tonne) and the Philippines ($1,296 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2011 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, the global coconut oil imports amounted to 2.1M tonnes, surging by 8.4% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2011 to 2018; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations over the period under review. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 2.4M tonnes in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, coconut oil imports amounted to $2.9B in 2018. Over the period under review, coconut oil imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $3.6B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

The U.S. (528K tonnes) and the Netherlands (378K tonnes) were the key importers of coconut (copra) oil in 2018, amounting to approx. 25% and 18% of total imports, respectively. Germany (198K tonnes) held a 9.3% share (based on tonnes) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Malaysia (9.1%) and China (6.7%). The following importers – South Korea (58K tonnes), Spain (55K tonnes), Italy (54K tonnes), Belgium (48K tonnes), Japan (40K tonnes) and Singapore (38K tonnes) – together made up 14% of total imports.

From 2011 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Spain, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest coconut oil importing markets worldwide were the U.S. ($649M), the Netherlands ($464M) and Germany ($277M), together accounting for 49% of global imports.

Among the main importing countries, Germany experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to imports, over the last seven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The average coconut oil import price stood at $1,342 per tonne in 2018, going down by -25.9% against the previous year. In general, the coconut oil import price continues to indicate a temperate decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average import price increased by 35% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average import prices for coconut (copra) oil reached their maximum at $1,811 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Belgium ($1,543 per tonne), while Malaysia ($1,028 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2011 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany, while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform