IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Coconuts – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

In 2018, the global coconut market size increased by 3.5% to $35.6B. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut consumption in 2018 were Indonesia (19M tonnes), the Philippines (14M tonnes) and India (12M tonnes), with a combined 72% share of global consumption. Sri Lanka, Brazil, Viet Nam, Papua New Guinea, Mexico and Thailand lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, India ($10B), the Philippines ($6.7B) and Indonesia ($4.5B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2018, with a combined 60% share of the global market. These countries were followed by Sri Lanka, Brazil, Papua New Guinea, Thailand, Viet Nam and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 20%.

The countries with the highest levels of coconut per capita consumption in 2018 were Papua New Guinea (140 kg per person), the Philippines (131 kg per person) and Sri Lanka (124 kg per person).

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 61M tonnes of coconuts were produced worldwide; leveling off at the previous year. Overall, coconut production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2012 with an increase of 5.3% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global coconut production attained its peak figure volume at 62M tonnes in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2018, production failed to regain its momentum. The general negative trend in terms of coconut output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, coconut production stood at $36.3B in 2018 estimated in export prices. Overall, the total output indicated a mild expansion from 2007 to 2018: its value decreased at an average annual rate of -0.1% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, coconut production increased by +35.7% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2009 when production volume increased by 50% y-o-y. In that year, global coconut production reached its peak level of $49.4B. From 2010 to 2018, global coconut production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of coconut production in 2018 were Indonesia (19M tonnes), the Philippines (14M tonnes) and India (12M tonnes), together accounting for 73% of global production. These countries were followed by Sri Lanka, Brazil, Viet Nam, Papua New Guinea and Mexico, which together accounted for a further 15%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of coconut production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Harvested Area 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 12M ha of coconuts were harvested worldwide; standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the coconut harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2010 with an increase of 2.5% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to coconut production attained its peak figure in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Yield 2007-2018

In 2018, the global average yield of coconuts amounted to 4.9 tonne per ha, approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, the coconut yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2012 with an increase of 4.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average coconut yield attained its maximum level at 5.4 tonne per ha in 2007; however, from 2008 to 2018, yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports stood at 555K tonnes in 2018, surging by 49% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated resilient growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 49% against the previous year. In that year, global coconut exports reached their peak and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, coconut exports totaled $269M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, the total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, coconut exports increased by +107.2% against 2012 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 33% year-to-year. Over the period under review, global coconut exports reached their maximum in 2018 and are expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Indonesia was the largest exporter of coconuts in the world, with the volume of exports amounting to 290K tonnes, which was near 52% of total exports in 2018. Thailand (70K tonnes) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Viet Nam (57K tonnes). All these countries together held near 23% share of total exports. The following exporters – Cote d’Ivoire (23K tonnes), Malaysia (19K tonnes), the Netherlands (16K tonnes), Mexico (14K tonnes), Guyana (12K tonnes) and India (11K tonnes) – together made up 17% of total exports.

Exports from Indonesia increased at an average annual rate of +12.8% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Guyana (+97.7%), Viet Nam (+43.2%), Malaysia (+18.9%), India (+11.3%), the Netherlands (+6.8%), Thailand (+6.4%), Cote d’Ivoire (+4.2%) and Mexico (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guyana emerged as the fastest-growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +97.7% from 2007-2018. While the share of Indonesia (+38 p.p.), Viet Nam (+10 p.p.), Thailand (+6.2 p.p.), Malaysia (+2.9 p.p.) and Guyana (+2.1 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest coconut markets worldwide were Thailand ($70M), Indonesia ($65M) and Viet Nam ($22M), with a combined 58% share of global exports. Cote d’Ivoire, the Netherlands, India, Mexico, Guyana and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 23%.

Among the main exporting countries, Guyana (+104.1% per year) recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last eleven years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average coconut export price amounted to $483 per tonne, declining by -12.6% against the previous year. Overall, the coconut export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2008 an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices for coconuts reached their peak figure at $553 per tonne in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was India ($1,127 per tonne), while Indonesia ($223 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 671K tonnes of coconuts were imported worldwide; surging by 26% against the previous year. In general, coconut imports continue to indicate a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global coconut imports reached their peak figure in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, coconut imports totaled $334M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, coconut imports continue to indicate a remarkable expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 43% y-o-y. The global imports peaked in 2018 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Thailand (210K tonnes) and Malaysia (199K tonnes) were the largest importers of coconuts in 2018, reaching approx. 31% and 30% of total imports, respectively. China (60K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total imports with a 9% share, followed by the U.S. (5.7%). The United Arab Emirates (27K tonnes), the Netherlands (19K tonnes) and Singapore (11K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Malaysia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Thailand ($77M) constitutes the largest market for imported coconuts worldwide, comprising 23% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the U.S. ($34M), with a 10% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 8.9% share.

In Thailand, coconut imports increased at an average annual rate of +30.9% over the period from 2007-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the U.S. (+12.0% per year) and China (+8.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The average coconut import price stood at $498 per tonne in 2018, falling by -5.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the coconut import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the average import price increased by 23% year-to-year. In that year, the average import prices for coconuts reached their peak level of $631 per tonne. From 2016 to 2018, the growth in terms of the average import prices for coconuts remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($880 per tonne), while Malaysia ($147 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform