Global trade growth is beginning to lose steam after a surge in frontloaded imports powered the strong first half of 2025, according to the World Trade Organization’s latest Goods Trade Barometer. The report indicates that while trade is still expanding, the pace is shifting downward as the year enters its final months.

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The barometer’s composite index slipped to 101.8 in September from 102.2 in June. Although the reading remains above the baseline level of 100—signaling continued, above-trend activity—the dip underscores that the extraordinary momentum seen earlier in the year is fading.

“Goods trade growth appears to have slowed in the second half of 2025 following a surge in the first half driven by frontloading of imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and by rising demand for AI-related products,” the WTO said.

Transportation indicators reflect this cooling phase. Both air cargo and container shipping indices have dropped over the past three months, with air freight falling to 102.7 and container shipping edging down to 101.7. These moves point to easing demand for global goods transport. Agricultural raw materials remained the weakest segment, sitting in contraction territory at 98.0 since January. Meanwhile, automotive products and electronic components held stable at 103.0 and 102.0, respectively.

Despite the moderation, demand signals remain relatively positive. The new export orders index climbed to 102.3 after recent volatility, suggesting that global export activity may retain forward momentum.

Growth in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with merchandise trade volumes rising 4.9% year-on-year. However, the WTO has revised its full-year forecast downward to 2.4%, citing the drag from higher tariffs and ongoing policy uncertainty in the second half of the year.

The organization notes that stronger-than-expected demand for AI-related products could still provide an upside surprise, echoing the trend that bolstered trade earlier in the year. The WTO’s next full forecast is scheduled for April 2026.

The Goods Trade Barometer provides near real-time insight into global merchandise trade and typically signals conditions two to three months ahead. Readings above 100 point to above-trend performance, while values below 100 indicate a likely dip in trade activity.