Global Lard Market to Grow 1.6% a Year through 2025, Fuelled by Rising Demand in China - Global Trade Magazine
  October 16th, 2019 | Written by

Global Lard Market to Grow 1.6% a Year through 2025, Fuelled by Rising Demand in China

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  • Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S.
  • Slovakia experienced the highest growth rate of imports.
  • Global imports stood at 223K tonnes in 2018, increasing by 8.2%.
  • In China, lard production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012-2018.

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘World – Lard – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights’. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The global lard market revenue amounted to $15.7B in 2018, jumping by 2.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 6.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global lard market attained its peak figure level in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of lard consumption was China (2.6M tonnes), accounting for 40% of total consumption. Moreover, lard consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest consumer, Germany (615K tonnes), fourfold. Brazil (478K tonnes) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.3% share.

From 2012 to 2018, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+0.7% per year) and Brazil (+1.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($11.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Russia ($1B). It was followed by Brazil.

The countries with the highest levels of lard per capita consumption in 2018 were Belgium (12,397 kg per 1000 persons), Germany (7,481 kg per 1000 persons) and Canada (4,662 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2012 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of lard per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Russia, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Market Forecast 2019-2025

Driven by increasing demand for lard in China, the world market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the seven-year period from 2018 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.3M tonnes by the end of 2025.

Production 2007-2018

Global lard production totaled 6.5M tonnes in 2018, increasing by 2% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 2.5% against the previous year. The global lard production peaked in 2018 and is expected to retain its growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, lard production stood at $15.6B in 2018 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global lard production peaked in 2018 and is likely to continue its growth in the near future.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of lard production was China (2.6M tonnes), accounting for 39% of total production. Moreover, lard production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the world’s second-largest producer, Germany (653K tonnes), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Brazil (481K tonnes), with a 7.4% share.

In China, lard production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012-2018. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+0.6% per year) and Brazil (+1.3% per year).

Exports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 243K tonnes of lard were exported worldwide; jumping by 9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, lard exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. The global exports peaked in 2018 and are likely to continue its growth in the near future.

In value terms, lard exports amounted to $220M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, lard exports continue to indicate a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 26% y-o-y. The global exports peaked at $241M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, exports failed to regain their momentum.

Exports by Country

Germany (46K tonnes), Spain (45K tonnes) and Belgium (35K tonnes) represented roughly 52% of total exports of lard in 2018. The U.S. (17K tonnes) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 6.9% share, followed by the Netherlands (5.7%), Italy (5.3%) and Austria (5%). France (10,645 tonnes), Canada (9,206 tonnes), Denmark (7,849 tonnes), Poland (7,002 tonnes) and Portugal (4,028 tonnes) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Portugal, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($57M), Germany ($31M) and Belgium ($23M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2018, together comprising 50% of global exports. The U.S., Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, Poland, France, Austria, Denmark and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Portugal experienced the highest rates of growth with regard to exports, over the last six years, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2018, the average lard export price amounted to $902 per tonne, falling by -4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the lard export price continues to indicate a temperate slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,027 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, export prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Poland ($1,359 per tonne), while Austria ($452 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports 2007-2018

Global imports stood at 223K tonnes in 2018, increasing by 8.2% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. In that year, global lard imports attained their peak of 236K tonnes. From 2016 to 2018, the growth of global lard imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, lard imports totaled $194M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. In general, lard imports continue to indicate a moderate drop. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 11% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global lard imports attained their peak figure at $227M in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2018, Spain (50K tonnes), distantly followed by the Netherlands (26K tonnes), Mexico (20K tonnes), Slovakia (18K tonnes), Denmark (16K tonnes) and France (11K tonnes) were the key importers of lard, together achieving 63% of total imports. Belgium (9,105 tonnes), the UK (7,294 tonnes), Germany (7,042 tonnes), the U.S. (6,910 tonnes), Portugal (6,763 tonnes) and the Philippines (5,311 tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of imports, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by the Philippines, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Spain ($41M), Mexico ($22M) and the Netherlands ($18M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2018, with a combined 42% share of global imports. Denmark, Belgium, France, the U.S., the UK, Germany, Slovakia, Portugal and the Philippines lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Slovakia experienced the highest growth rate of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the last six-year period, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2018, the average lard import price amounted to $870 per tonne, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the lard import price continues to indicate a perceptible reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 13% y-o-y. Over the period under review, the average import prices for lard attained their peak figure at $1,100 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, import prices failed to regain their momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($1,157 per tonne), while the Philippines ($131 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform


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