Worldwide air cargo tonnages recovered in mid-September after the customary annual dip tied to Labor Day in the United States and Canada on 7 September, according to WorldACD Market Data. The firm’s weekly trends report for week 38 of 2026 shows chargeable weight rising for a fourth consecutive week, with tonnages, rates and capacity all higher than a year earlier across every major region.

Read also: Global Air Cargo Traffic Drops 9% in Week 22 Due to Multiple Holidays

Global tonnages increased 2 percent week on week in the 14 to 20 September period, driven mainly by a 14 percent rebound in volumes originating in North America, which returned that market to levels seen in the preceding weeks. Offsetting the gain, Middle East and South Asia origins recorded a 4 percent weekly decline, and Africa also fell 4 percent week on week.

Measured against the equivalent period a year earlier, worldwide tonnages were up 8 percent in week 38. Asia Pacific origins led with an 11 percent year-on-year increase, followed by North America at 8 percent, Europe at 6 percent, and gains of 2 percent each from Middle East and South Asia and from Central and South America.

Rates Hold Steady but Remain Elevated Year on Year

Average worldwide rates in week 38 were broadly stable on a full-market mix of spot and contract rates. The largest weekly percentage move came from Africa, where rates rose 6 percent to an average of 2.47 US dollars per kilo. Full-market worldwide rates stood 24 percent above year-earlier levels, with Middle East and South Asia up 49 percent, Europe and Africa each up 26 percent, and Asia Pacific origins up 21 percent.

Worldwide spot rates were flat week on week at 3.45 US dollars per kilo despite another increase in jet fuel prices. Africa posted the biggest weekly spot-rate gain at 7 percent, while Asia Pacific and Europe each edged up 1 percent. Those increases were partly offset by declines from North America at 4 percent, Middle East and South Asia at 2 percent, and Central and South America at 1 percent.

The worldwide spot average of 3.45 US dollars per kilo was 33 percent higher year on year, with every region recording annual increases, most of at least 25 percent. Central and South America was the exception, with spot rates up 5 percent. Middle East and South Asia led with a 52 percent annual rise, followed by North America at 34 percent, Africa at 31 percent, Asia Pacific at 30 percent and Europe at 29 percent.

Middle East and South Asia Volumes Soften

A closer look at the decline in tonnages from Middle East and South Asia shows traffic to the United States fell 5 percent week on week, including a 5 percent drop from India, a 17 percent decline from Bangladesh and a 10 percent decrease from Sri Lanka, while volumes from some Gulf markets remained volatile. Traffic from the region to Europe was steadier, rising 1 percent week on week, as increases from Bangladesh offset a significant 14 percent weekly decline from Sri Lanka.

Capacity Stable Overall but Still Below Pre-Conflict Levels in Some Lanes

Worldwide capacity was broadly stable in week 38, rising about 1 percent week on week as freighter capacity grew nearly 2 percent and passenger capacity slipped slightly. Total international capacity continued to expand year on year, up 4 percent, led by a 5 percent increase in freighter capacity.

Compared with week 7, just before the start of the US-Iran conflict, worldwide capacity in week 38 was up an average of 4 percent. Capacity to and from Europe rose 19 percent over that span, while capacity to and from Middle East and South Asia fell 9 percent and capacity to and from Asia Pacific was about 2 percent lower. Within the Middle East and South Asia decline, capacity to and from South Asia was about 3 percent higher, whereas capacity to and from the Gulf Area remained down almost 17 percent since the conflict began. Gulf capacity slipped about 1 percent in week 38 from the prior week.

Asia Pacific Demand Mixed as China Holidays Approach

Traffic from China and Hong Kong to Europe had been recovering gradually over the previous four weeks following two months of steep declines after the removal of EU de minimis exemptions on 1 July, but volumes slipped back somewhat in week 38, including a 5 percent weekly drop from Hong Kong. Compared with a year earlier, air cargo tonnages from Hong Kong to Europe were down 29 percent, while mainland China volumes were broadly stable with a 2 percent annual increase.

Spot rates from China, Hong Kong and Asia Pacific origins as a whole to Europe remained firm, with further small weekly increases from key markets including mainland China at 4 percent, Hong Kong at 1 percent, Japan at 3 percent and South Korea at 2 percent. Rates from Vietnam rose 8 percent week on week for a second consecutive week to 4.89 US dollars per kilo.

Average spot rates to Europe from Asia Pacific origins overall rose 2 percent week on week to 4.72 US dollars per kilo. Demand from Asia Pacific origins to the United States remained strong, up 13 percent year on year, helped by large annual increases from South Korea at 54 percent, Japan at 47 percent, China at 14 percent and key Southeast Asian origins including Thailand at 12 percent, Singapore at 10 percent and Indonesia at 19 percent. Average spot rates from Asia Pacific to the United States were broadly stable in week 38 at 6.75 US dollars per kilo, but were about 40 percent higher than the equivalent week a year earlier, including annual increases from Singapore of 62 percent and from Japan of 50 percent.

Holiday Periods Compress Freight Planning

China’s Mid-Autumn Festival from 25 to 27 September and the National Day Golden Week from 1 to 7 October fall in close succession, compressing production, export handovers and freight planning into a narrow window before October, according to freight forwarders. Air freight often serves as a pressure-release option when ocean freight schedules are missed, prompting urgent shipments, high-value goods and e-commerce traffic to compete for limited uplift before and immediately after Golden Week.

Forwarders reported that general cargo demand from North China is rising as shippers push cargo out ahead of the holidays, although e-commerce volumes remain relatively soft. New charter capacity entering the market is said to be broadly absorbing rate pressure that stronger general cargo volumes would otherwise create, keeping rates relatively steady. From Southern China, transpacific demand is rising, but sufficient capacity availability is keeping rates relatively stable, and e-commerce demand from that region also remains relatively low.

The upcoming Chinese holidays may lift transpacific market activity in the coming days, though Asia Pacific westbound demand to Europe currently remains soft, keeping rates relatively subdued on that lane.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform