Global Air Cargo Rates Decline in July Amid Iran Conflict and EU Import Rule Changes
Air freight pricing softened during July, as the Iran-linked hostilities drove up kerosene expenses and created logistical bottlenecks, while fresh European Union customs measures further curtailed cargo flows out of China and Hong Kong toward Europe, based on WorldACD Market Data.
Read also: Air Cargo Market Outlook: Rates Rise, Growth Slows, AI Drives Demand
Traffic figures
In the seven-day period ending Aug. 2, billable tonnage originating in mainland China and destined for Europe slipped 5% versus the prior week, while Hong Kong-origin consignments eased 3%, extending the losing streak to six straight weeks. On an annual basis, mainland China volumes trailed by 7% and Hong Kong by 24%.
The regional turmoil has intensified strain on the airfreight sector via steeper fuel-related surcharges and service interruptions, although robust demand from segments like AI-focused data center hardware has propped up pricing, WorldACD noted.
Pricing snapshot
Worldwide average spot charges receded 8% month-over-month in July to $3.41 per kilogram, yet they still sat 29% above the same month last year. Asia-Pacific tariffs slipped 10% to $4.75 per kilogram, while remaining 29% higher than July 2025 readings.
Spot tariffs from mainland China to Europe tumbled 29% between late June and the week ending Aug. 2, settling at $3.86 per kilogram, whereas Hong Kong-to-Europe prices dropped 15% to $4.96 per kilogram.
EU policy effects
For the full month of July, combined China and Hong Kong air tonnage to Europe contracted 9% from June and 12% year-on-year. Mainland China dispatches fell 3% month-over-month, while Hong Kong shipments plunged 19%.
WorldACD attributed these reductions chiefly to elevated expenses and added administrative burdens stemming from the EU’s July 1 termination of duty-free entry for goods under 150 euros, a change that has hit the e-commerce-centric Hong Kong corridor especially hard.
Even with the recent downturn, spot prices from China and Hong Kong to Europe in the latest week remained marginally above year-ago levels, though the gap has narrowed considerably compared with the preceding three months.
Other markets and drivers
Tariffs from other Asia-Pacific points of origin stayed markedly higher on an annual basis, with Taiwan up 33%, Vietnam up 39%, and Thailand up 32%.
WorldACD stated that persistently high global rates mirrored increased fuel surcharges stemming from jet fuel price advances tied to the U.S.-Iran standoff, combined with supply-demand mismatches and conflict-related interruptions, as well as sustained cargo demand from industries including AI infrastructure.
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