Shipping leaders gathered at the TradeWinds Shipowners Forum during Posidonia described an industry where geopolitics now shapes trade flows, fleet deployment, financing decisions and asset values, according to a report published on 2026-06-03 by Splash247. The panel indicated that geopolitical factors are no longer just causing operational disruptions but are redefining entire shipping markets.

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Charis Plakantonaki, chief strategy officer at Star Bulk, noted that trade patterns have already shifted significantly due to the US-China trade war, the pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, Red Sea attacks and recent tensions in the Persian Gulf. She observed that China redirected its trade from the United States to Brazil, and Europe shifted trade away from Russia. In the Middle East, she said more than 200 vessels are currently trapped in the Gulf, and higher oil prices have pushed average dry bulk vessel speeds below 11 knots. Despite these disruptions, Plakantonaki stated that the dry bulk sector is experiencing a net positive effect from developments in the Persian Gulf, though she highlighted higher insurance costs, sanctions risks and security concerns.

James Lewis, vice president of ocean transportation at Cargill, described a market environment changing faster than at any point in his career, calling it structurally more difficult. He noted that the biggest difference is the speed of change, adding that he has not seen change on this scale in his two decades with the company. Lewis said operators increasingly rely on flexibility, technology and collaboration, and credited collaboration with partners and flexible charters for helping navigate rapid shifts.

Paul Pathy, chief executive of Fednav and president of BIMCO, argued that shipping companies are generally flexible and adaptable, but noted that events now hit fast and are more ferocious, requiring strategy to evolve more quickly. Regarding tensions between the United States and China, Lewis acknowledged that uncertainty around trade policy became a major challenge last year, describing a period when preferences for modern eco ships shifted rapidly between Japanese-built and Chinese-built vessels. Pathy expressed confidence that economic interests would prevail, stating that both China and the United States are business-focused and that money ultimately talks. When asked whether shipping would have to choose between East and West, Pathy replied that he does not think it will.

The weaponisation of shipping emerged as a key concern. Rolf Westfal-Larsen Jr, chair of Intertanko, said shipping, particularly tankers, is being actively used as a political weapon. He described direct attacks on vessels as a game changer, noting that several seafarers have been killed and attacks continue. He warned that owners can no longer evaluate certain trades through commercial calculations alone, advising members to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz. Westfal-Larsen estimated there are now around 1,500 dark fleet tankers operating outside regulations at great risk to international safety, and called for stronger enforcement, warning that impunity will only increase the problem. Pathy echoed these concerns, saying that a portion of the world fleet not following rules is highly detrimental to the rest of the industry and called for a level playing field.

Costas Delaportas, chief executive of DryDel Shipping, highlighted the speed of regulatory and political changes, noting that legitimate cargo can suddenly become subject to new rules, leading to sanctions despite proper compliance. He also reported that ships are waiting around 10 to 12 days for bunkers in some locations. The panel repeatedly emphasised flexibility, diversification and financial discipline. Pathy advised matching risk to reward, diversifying and maintaining conservative financial management. Lewis stressed building flexibility into business models. Westfal-Larsen recommended not putting all eggs in one basket and highlighted contractual flexibility through tariff and force majeure clauses. Plakantonaki’s closing advice emphasised a strong balance sheet, stating that cash is king once again.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform