The latest data reveals a noteworthy drop in freight shipments for December, as highlighted by Cass Information Systems. The report indicates that while expenditures were less affected, suggesting an increase in freight rates during the month. This aligns with data from the IndexBox platform, which tracks freight market trends.

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According to the Cass Freight Index, freight volumes plummeted by 7.3% compared to November and registered a 6.5% year-over-year decline. These numbers reflect the largest annual decrease since January 2024 and the lowest index reading since June 2020. Notably, the Index, which predominantly covers truckload shipments, saw most freight modes experiencing a downturn, including less-than-truckload, railroad, and parcel shipments. Seasonal trends and holidays were factors, along with shippers accelerating deliveries to preempt a possible dockworker strike.

The freight expenditure index, capturing total freight spend including fuel costs, fell 2.6% sequentially but was up 0.5% when adjusted seasonally. This December downturn correlated with a 12% yearly decrease in diesel prices. Freight rates, inferred from the balance of shipments and expenditures, increased by 3.3% year-over-year, breaking a declining trend since November 2022. The Truckload Linehaul Index, excluding fuel, saw a fourth consecutive monthly rise, hinting at stability in freight pricing.

Looking forward, Cass forecasts suggest a continuing decline of about 6% in freight volumes year-over-year for January, assuming seasonal trends hold. Despite the decline in the linehaul index over the past two years, recent months have pointed to possible rate recovery, attributed largely to substantial spot market activity spurred by winter storms. This trend, combined with anticipated capacity augmentation, could engender further rate increases in 2025.

The expenditure index closed 2024 with an 11% reduction from the previous year following a dramatic 19% drop in 2023. Significant changes in market dynamics, including reduced Class 8 vehicle supply, are shaping the potential return to rate increases as the industry navigates ongoing challenges and opportunities for growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform