Freight shipment activity held steady in April, with capacity constraints pushing rates to recent highs, according to data from Cass Information Systems released this month.

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The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index showed a year-over-year decline of 4.4% but rose 0.4% from March, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 0.6%. This marked the third consecutive monthly increase in volumes. The report described this pattern as a promising sign for a potential rebound in the latter half of the year.

If normal seasonal patterns hold, the shipments index would see a 1.7% year-over-year increase during the second half of 2026. The dataset is projected to decrease by just 1% year over year in May. A two-year stacked decline of 7.9% was tied for the smallest such drop in the past twelve months.

At an investor conference held during the week, J.B. Hunt Transport Services reported that shipper demand surpassed expectations throughout the first quarter and has continued at a steady pace since. The company indicated it sees a path to significantly increase truckload rates over the next two years.

The Cass report noted that less-than-truckload tonnage trends are improving for some fleets, which bodes well for continued improvement in shipment trends in the coming months. It added that tightness in the dry van truckload market is beginning to spread to other modes, mainly reefer and flatbed truckload, and that this tightness will eventually drive demand in both LTL and intermodal segments.

The expenditures index, which measures total freight spending including fuel, rose 3.5% year over year and 2.6% higher than March, with a seasonally adjusted increase of 1.2%. Higher diesel prices and core freight rates were cited as the drivers of this increase.

The Cass truckload linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, surged 5.6% year over year—the largest such increase since August 2022. Sequentially, it rose 3.2%, marking the biggest monthly jump since March 2022. However, the index was essentially flat sequentially in February and March. This dataset, which includes both spot and contract rates for for-hire carriers, has recorded year-over-year increases for sixteen consecutive months.

The report concluded that the freight cycle is currently being driven by the supply side, as noncompliant drivers are being forced out of service. It cautioned that higher fuel prices are sapping consumer spending and that rising interest rates are weighing on the housing market, factors that are pressuring demand. The report stated that demand will eventually need to take over to sustain the recovery. It also noted that new FMCSA regulations have acted as a catalyst and appear likely to lead to tighter capacity and higher rates going forward.

Data for the indexes is derived from freight bills processed by Cass, which handles $37 billion in freight payables annually for its clients.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform