The tone of the December State of Freight webinar, a FreightWaves production, differed from most others held in 2025, as it presented data suggesting a strengthening freight market. Presenters Zach Strickland and J.P. Hampstead cited recent spikes in SONAR benchmark data, including rejection rates and spot prices, as evidence for this shift.

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Spot Rates Are Climbing

The SONAR National Truckload Index, which reflects spot freight rates excluding fuel, has risen from less than $1.75 per mile a month ago to just under $2 per mile. “We had an intuition that the market was more sensitive,” Hampstead said, noting that capacity exits reported earlier in the year led to bounces that faded. He stated, “just before Thanksgiving… is when things started turning up quickly.” Strickland noted that while spot rates traditionally spike during peak season, “we really didnt have a lot of reason to expect this” ongoing increase.

The spread between spot and contract rates has narrowed from about 60 cents per mile a month ago to closer to 40 cents per mile, indicating the spot market is closing in on contract prices.

Rejection Rates Are Also Rising

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI), a measure of capacity tightness, has soared to 10.72% from less than 6% just before Thanksgiving. It spiked over 10% about a year ago but fell below 5% by late April. “This is an early rise in the OTRI,” Strickland said, attributing the increase to factors including Midwest winter weather and flooding in the Pacific Northwest.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform