Global shipping markets are beginning to show signs of stabilization after months of geopolitical turmoil, and freight forwarders could soon face a new kind of commercial strain, according to Oliver Gritz, Founder and CEO of OntegosCloud, a platform focused on forwarder profitability.

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With a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran appearing increasingly attainable, industry focus has turned to the likelihood of reduced disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and a more predictable operational landscape in the latter half of 2026. Yet Gritz warns that many freight forwarders may be overlooking the difficulties that frequently surface during recovery phases.

Gritz noted a widespread belief that a decline in disruption automatically leads to better profitability. He countered that the shift from volatility to stability can actually put significant pressure on margins. For instance, clients may anticipate falling freight costs as geopolitical tensions subside and insurance markets steady, while forwarders remain burdened by high insurance premiums, elevated fuel expenses, disruption-related contingencies, repositioning costs, and contracts forged during turbulent times. When customer expectations realign faster than operational expenses, the outcome is often squeezed margins rather than improved ones.

During the first six months of 2026, freight forwarders navigated an environment defined by erratic freight rates, steep insurance costs, route unpredictability, and persistent supply chain interruptions. Although these conditions posed operational hurdles, they also fostered stronger commercial rigor, with companies focusing more on pricing strategies, margin oversight, and cost recoupment.

As markets are anticipated to stabilize, that discipline may face challenges. OntegosCloud points out that customer expectations are typically among the first elements to normalize during a recovery. Procurement teams start demanding lower transport costs, temporary surcharges face increased scrutiny, and competitive pricing pressures mount. The difficulty lies in the fact that many underlying cost structures adjust much more slowly. Insurance expenses, network inefficiencies, contractual obligations, and working capital strains often linger within forwarding operations well after market sentiment brightens.

Gritz observed that customer confidence is the first aspect to bounce back, while profitability is often the last, creating a breeding ground for margin pressure.

OntegosCloud outlines four commercial challenges likely to define the second half of 2026. First is margin compression, driven by customer expectations outpacing cost adjustments. Second is an increasing demand for profitability transparency. In the first half, forwarders prioritized operational visibility and disruption handling; in the second half, they may require insight into profitability at the shipment, customer, and service levels to guide sound commercial choices. Third is revenue recovery. Billing complexities introduced during disruption—such as surcharges, operational exceptions, and tailored client agreements—often persist in processes long after conditions improve, posing ongoing threats of revenue loss and cost recapture issues. Finally, cash recovery is projected to trail operational recovery. Outstanding receivables, unresolved disputes, and working capital pressures built up in the first half are expected to continue impacting financial results deep into the second half.

Gritz believes these factors will forge a new competitive divide in the forwarding sector. He stated that the top performers in the second half will not necessarily be those in the most stable markets, but rather those that uphold commercial discipline as conditions improve. The capacity to safeguard margins, consistently recover revenue, and translate operational recovery into financial gains could become a far more critical differentiator than many anticipate.

While much of the industry’s recent focus has been on managing disruption, OntegosCloud contends that the upcoming challenge is managing recovery. Gritz remarked that the freight industry has become adept at handling disruption, but the current challenge for forwarders is distinct. Stability is expected to return, but profitability does not automatically follow. Companies that recognize this early will be best positioned as the market progresses through the second half of the year. Gritz concluded that stability may return in weeks, but profitability—and specifically cost conversion—may take quarters.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform