According to a report from Freightwaves, U.S. importers are awaiting a Supreme Court decision that could upend their work from the last year with constantly changing tariffs. Flexport launched a Tariff Refund Calculator, a public-facing tool designed to estimate potential refunds tied to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Read also: 2026 Trade Outlook: Flexport Warns Tariff Volatility to Persist

The timing is deliberate as the Supreme Court is weighing a challenge to the federal government’s authority to levy broad tariffs using emergency powers, which is how the tariffs were able to fluctuate so broadly and rapidly in 2025. “With customers awaiting the ruling, we built this tool to help them scenario-plan,” said Ryan Petersen, Founder and CEO of Flexport. “We can’t predict the Court’s decision, but we can give businesses clearer insight so they’re prepared for whatever comes next.”

If the Court rules that the tariffs were unlawfully imposed, importers that paid those duties could be eligible for refunds, potentially totaling billions of dollars across industries. Flexport’s calculator is designed to address uncertainty early by allowing importers to upload their U.S. Customs and Border Protection entry data to estimate how much they may have paid in affected tariffs and what portion could be refundable.

The Supreme Court case centers on whether the executive branch overstepped its authority by using IEEPA, a law traditionally associated with sanctions and national emergencies, to impose wide-ranging tariffs. During oral arguments, several justices questioned whether Congress intended the statute to function as a de facto tariff mechanism, raising the possibility that the duties could ultimately be struck down.

Recovering tariffs typically requires timely protests, detailed entry records, and coordination with customs brokers and legal counsel. Some large importers have already filed protective lawsuits or administrative claims to preserve their rights. Others, particularly mid-sized companies without in-house trade teams, risk being caught flat-footed if a refund window opens with limited notice.

Flexport’s move reflects a larger shift in how logistics providers are positioning themselves amid regulatory volatility. The launch also comes as U.S. Customs and Border Protection has taken steps to modernize and centralize refund processing, signaling that the agency may be preparing for an influx of claims if the Court rules against the government.

For importers operating on thin margins, the possibility of recovering past tariff payments could influence everything from pricing strategies to capital allocation decisions. Even the chance of a refund changes how companies think about cash flow and risk in the months ahead.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform