A new report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that the global competition for critical minerals is fundamentally altering trade flows, industrial policy, and supply chains, presenting both opportunities and difficulties for the maritime shipping sector.

According to UNCTAD’s latest Global Trade Update, rising demand for minerals essential to the energy transition and advanced technologies—such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements—is transforming global commerce as nations work to secure their supplies.

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The report notes a significant departure from traditional commodity trade patterns, driven by a heightened focus on supply-chain resilience and a desire to lessen reliance on a limited number of suppliers. China continues to hold a dominant position across many critical mineral value chains, especially in processing and refining. Meanwhile, countries including Australia, Indonesia, Chile, and several African nations are working to expand their roles as suppliers of both raw materials and higher-value processed goods.

For the shipping industry, this trend is expected to create new trade corridors and boost demand for bulk commodity transportation, particularly as investment accelerates in mining projects and downstream processing facilities. UNCTAD observed that geopolitical factors are increasingly influencing trade and investment decisions, with critical minerals becoming central to industrial strategies in North America, Europe, and Asia. The organization cautioned that supply-chain concentration and geopolitical tensions could introduce vulnerabilities to global trade, especially as countries implement export controls, subsidies, and other measures aimed at securing access to strategic resources.

Critical minerals were a key topic at this year’s Geneva Dry, the world’s premier commodities shipping conference, held at the end of April. During the minor bulks panel, discussions highlighted how trades are becoming more closely linked to energy transition commodities, including copper, aluminium inputs, nickel feedstocks, and fertiliser products. Trade routes are simultaneously being reshaped by disruption in the Middle East, shifting Chinese demand patterns, and supply security concerns.

Robert Haggquist from South32 noted that many governments are now building strategic inventories of key minor bulk commodities as a hedge against potential future disruption. Several panellists identified copper as one of the clearest long-term demand stories for geared bulkers. Karim Coumine, head of commercial shipping – minor bulk at Anglo American, stated that demand growth tied to electrification, electric vehicles, and industrial development continues to underpin copper concentrate flows from South America into Asia. He commented that there is currently not a great amount of new investment in copper supply, noting that investing in a copper mine requires substantial money and time to bring it online. Eduardo Luz from Vale Base Metals said the industry still faces a substantial future supply gap despite strong growth plans. He indicated a need for 10 million tonnes of refined copper in the market and noted that projects take a long time to come online.

Vale expects its Brazilian copper shipments to double to 2 million tonnes by 2035 as new projects ramp up.

A central debate during the session focused on fleet composition and whether geared bulkers remain adequately supplied for increasingly fragmented trade patterns. Olivia Lennox-King, chief of operations at Cetus Maritime, argued that flexibility is becoming more important than scale alone. She stated that what is wanted in a geared vessel is extreme versatility, allowing operators to pivot when the market changes. She noted that larger geared designs have steadily gained market share over the past decade, with ultramaxes increasingly viewed as the ultimate workhorse of the geared sector, but stressed that hard limits imposed by ports and cargo characteristics remain.

The session also explored whether transhipment and alternative logistics corridors could ease port bottlenecks and draft restrictions that continue to limit vessel upsizing in several trades. Executives from both Vale and Anglo American said transhipment is already part of daily operations for copper concentrate trades into northern Europe, although higher cargo values and operational complexity limit how far the model can expand. Port constraints were repeatedly cited as one of the main barriers preventing further migration towards larger geared vessels. Coumine stated that ports are not getting that developed, and there will be a natural limit.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform