Corn Prices to Lose 10% in 2022, U.S. Exports Double to $16.5B
IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘U.S. – Maize – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights. Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.
In 2022, the average annual maize price is forecast to drop by 10% y-o-y due to higher global production and lower demand from Asia, after growing by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne last year. Thanks to rising corn prices and increased demand for feed grains in Canada, U.S. maize export sales reached $16.5B in January-October 2021, doubling compared to the same period a year earlier.
According to World Bank’s data, the average annual corn price grew by 57% y-o-y to $260 per tonne in 2021. This year, it is expected to decrease by 10% y-o-y with higher output and lower demand for feed use in Asia. At the same time, this forecast is subject to several risks, including explosive energy and fertilizer prices, high freight rates, biofuel policies and weather conditions.
Rising corn prices and high demand for feed grains in Canada stimulated the growth of export value from the U.S. Throughout January-October 2021, total U.S. maize supplies reached 60M tonnes, expanding by 30% compared to the same previous year. In value terms, American corn exports grew twofold, reaching a record $16.5B. USDA predicts that U.S. maize sales to Canada will rise ninefold, surpassing 3M tonnes in 2022. High prices for feed barley in Canada are set to propel the growth of demand for substitutes, including corn.
World’s Largest Corn Suppliers
In 2020, the volume of maize exported worldwide rose notably to 169M tonnes, picking up by 6.4% compared with the previous year’s figure. In value terms, supplies stood at $36.4B.
The shipments of the four significant maize exporters, namely the U.S., Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine, represented more than two-thirds of global volume. Romania (5.7M tonnes), France (4.5M tonnes), Hungary (4M tonnes) and Bulgaria (2.6M tonnes) held a minor share of total exports.
In value terms, the U.S. ($9.6B), Argentina ($6.4B) and Brazil ($5.9B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of supplies in 2020, with a combined 60% share of global exports. These countries were followed by Ukraine, France, Romania, Hungary and Bulgaria, which accounted for 24%.
U.S. Corn Exports in 2020
Maize exports from the U.S. soared to 52M tonnes in 2020, increasing 25% against 2019 figures. In value terms, supplies skyrocketed to $9.6B (IndexBox estimates).
Mexico (15M tonnes), Japan (10M tonnes) and China (6.9M tonnes) were the main destinations of maize exports from the U.S., with a combined 62% share of total volume.
Source: IndexBox Platform
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