As 2025 approaches, copper prices are expected to face significant challenges as additional US trade tariffs from the Trump administration and economic uncertainties in China weigh heavily on consumption and price expectations. According to Citigroup Inc., copper is anticipated to average $8,750 per ton in 2025, a notable decrease from their previous estimate of $10,250 per ton. Analysts cite a restrictive monetary environment in developed economies and decreased policy support for electric vehicles as contributing factors delaying a recovery in global manufacturing activity beyond 2025.

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The London Metal Exchange reported copper trading at $9,100.50 per ton in Shanghai, reflecting a 20% drop from its record high in May due to diminishing Chinese demand and a strengthening US dollar. Despite potential fiscal stimulus in Asia’s largest economy, President-elect Donald Trump’s intentions to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional tariffs on goods from other regions are adding dark clouds over the metal’s outlook.

For 2023, the United States recorded a copper export value of $1.5 billion, with key export destinations including Mexico ($1.3 billion), Canada ($69.8 million), and Germany ($67.3 million), as per data from the IndexBox platform. Concurrently, the US imported copper worth $6.6 billion, with the largest import sources being Chile ($4.6 billion), Canada ($1.1 billion), and Peru ($672.8 million).

Citi analysts foresee a “balanced refined-copper market next year,” with stagnant demand from cyclical consumption alongside growth in decarbonization usage being offset by continued below-average mine supply growth. They anticipate prices could reach $10,000 by 2026, contingent on a global manufacturing recovery driven by monetary easing.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform