Global container shipping profits plunged in the second quarter of 2025, with carriers posting a combined net income of just $4.4 billion — down 56% from the $9.9 billion earned in Q1 and 63.7% lower than the $12 billion reported a year earlier, according to maritime analyst John McCown.

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This marks the sector’s third straight quarter of shrinking earnings, ending the streak of record-breaking profits fueled by the Red Sea crisis. McCown admitted his earlier projection of $5 billion for Q2 was “too optimistic,” as US trade measures weigh heavily on the industry.

“The container shipping industry is moving into a headwind driven by tariff and related trade initiatives of the US,” McCown noted, highlighting how American trade lanes — which account for roughly one-third of global container miles — are already seeing sharp volume declines.

Inbound US container volumes fell 3.6% over the three months ending July. The National Retail Federation expects an even steeper drop ahead, forecasting a 5.6% fall for 2025 compared to last year. McCown estimates that would require inbound volumes for the rest of the year to plunge 17.5%, attributing the entire shortfall to tariffs.

The industry has previously thrived on disruption: carriers reaped about $400 billion in profits during the pandemic and another $50 billion amid the Red Sea crisis. That experience has sharpened capacity management, but current pressures are proving more persistent.

McCown projects Q3 profits will sink further, landing between $1.9 billion and $2.5 billion — a far cry from the $26.4 billion earned during the third quarter of 2024. Additional strain looms from the US Trade Representative’s new fee plan, which will impose charges on China-built or Chinese-operated vessels starting in October. The move could spark capacity withdrawals or rate hikes, particularly on the Asia–West Coast route, where COSCO dominates.

Despite mounting risks, carriers continue to invest in new tonnage, with many orders placed before tariffs and new fees came into play. McCown believes the wave of shipbuilding reflects greater discipline in managing capacity, though it may test profitability in a weakening demand environment.

“The next year or so is certain to be among the most eventful periods ever for the container shipping industry,” McCown concluded, noting that developments in the sector will serve as a bellwether for broader US and global economic trends.