The global container shipping sector is heading toward potential market turbulence as the orderbook hits 11.61 million TEU, or 34.8% of the current fleet, far exceeding routine fleet replacement needs, according to maritime intelligence firm Linerlytica.

Read also: Container Rates Fall on Asia-U.S. Routes as Supply Outpaces Demand

The surge follows a record-breaking 2025, with carriers ordering 633 new ships totaling 5.08 million TEU, surpassing previous highs in 2021 and 2024. Key players such as COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd pushed the year’s total beyond 4.77 million TEU ordered in 2024. Linerlytica warns this expansion could trigger over-supply over the next four years, raising concerns about whether cargo demand can keep pace with the influx of new capacity through 2029.

Chinese shipyards remain dominant, taking 79% of orders (497 ships) and 72% of capacity (3.66 million TEU). Meanwhile, South Korean yards increased their share from 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, adding 1.35 million TEU.

Market volatility persists. After failed attempts to raise rates earlier in December, carriers launched a second round of hikes mid-month with limited success. Although the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index briefly surged 7.8%, much of the increase was quickly rolled back.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Premier Alliance plans to add two Transpacific PSW services and upgrade its Asia–North Europe string in April, maintaining routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to security concerns.

With record ordering, uncertain demand, and rising competition, the industry faces a crucial challenge: whether it can absorb the new capacity without triggering a prolonged period of depressed freight rates.