Global container shipping rates continue to lose steam, signaling that the tariff-driven surge earlier this year has largely run its course. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 4% this week to $2,250 per 40ft container—the tenth consecutive weekly decline—underscoring a market shift from volatility to gradual stabilization.

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The rate rollercoaster began after new U.S. tariffs were unveiled in April, fueling rapid increases from May into early June. Prices then tumbled sharply through mid-July before the pace of decline moderated.

Transpacific trade lanes bore the brunt of this week’s slide. Shanghai–Los Angeles rates dipped 3% to $2,412/FEU, while Shanghai–New York routes fell 5% to $3,463/FEU. According to Drewry, an accelerated import push by U.S. retailers—creating an early peak season—has ended, with buyers now pulling back amid a slowing U.S. economy and higher tariff costs.

Asia–Europe routes also softened. Shanghai–Rotterdam rates slipped 6% to $2,973/FEU, and Shanghai–Genoa decreased 3% to $2,978/FEU. Even as European demand remains steady and port congestion persists, an oversupply of vessel capacity continues to drag rates down.

Looking ahead, Drewry’s Container Forecaster warns of a weakening supply-demand balance in the second half of 2025, with further spot rate declines likely. The trajectory will hinge on potential new Trump-era tariffs and how carriers adjust capacity in response to U.S. penalties on Chinese vessels.

The fallout from tariff uncertainty is already visible at U.S. ports. The National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker expects 2025 import volumes to end 5.6% below last year’s levels. “Tariffs are raising consumer costs and squeezing small businesses,” said NRF Vice President Jonathan Gold. “What we need are trade deals that lower barriers—not higher ones.”

Port activity reflects the stop-and-go trade climate. U.S. ports handled 1.96 million TEU in June, down 8.4% year-over-year, followed by a projected 2.3 million TEU in July as retailers rushed to beat August tariffs. However, volumes are expected to fall sharply through year-end, with November forecast at just 1.71 million TEU—the lowest since April 2023.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, described the tariff landscape as “on-again, off-again,” causing headaches for shippers, importers, and consumers alike.

With fading demand, oversupplied capacity, and tariff risks still looming, container markets may face a long stretch of downward pressure.