Tensions in the Middle East are mounting following Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear leadership—raising alarm across the shipping industry about potential fallout, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global container trade.

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While Iran has not yet targeted commercial vessels, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has warned of the risk of “rapid escalation” after Iran retaliated with a drone strike on Israel. The communique noted that no direct threat to commercial shipping exists at present, but emphasized that the region’s proximity to major maritime routes leaves the sector exposed.

Adding to the risk, non-state actors like Yemen’s Houthi rebels have signaled they may act if the U.S. is seen as playing a role in the conflict. This raises the threat of broader disruptions across key shipping lanes.

Though experts say a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely—especially since Iran relies heavily on oil exports—uncertainty remains high. The continued detention of the MSC Aries, seized by Iran on April 15, has already rattled the container sector. The ship is linked to Zodiac Maritime, a company with ties to Israel.

In response, carriers have been quietly shifting Israel-linked ships away from the Gulf. But according to Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, even the threat of attacks could be enough to deter some operators. “As seen in the Red Sea, it only took a few attacks in late 2023 to drive global carriers away from the region. Hormuz could follow the same pattern,” he said.

A shutdown of the Strait would be a serious blow to regional and global trade. Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port currently handles 132 liner services, and Abu Dhabi services 55—most of which pass through the Strait. A closure would isolate Gulf ports in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq from international container flows.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, warned that even partial disruption would have ripple effects across supply chains. “Rerouting traffic would put more pressure on Indian ports and raise container shipping rates sharply. We’d likely see congestion, oil price hikes, and the introduction of new ‘security surcharges’ from carriers,” he said.

He added that the situation may further delay any large-scale return of containerships to the Red Sea, where attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces continue to affect global routing decisions. While the group recently pledged to avoid hitting non-Israeli-linked vessels in the Suez Canal, that commitment remains conditional—and could shift quickly amid rising regional tensions.

As geopolitical instability spreads, the world’s most critical shipping lanes face fresh uncertainty—putting pressure on supply chains already stretched by conflict and rerouting.